Dr Neil Hutton Chapter 3 CO2 Global Warming. Freind Of Science.

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Climate Change was originally published as a ten-part series in the Canadian Society

of Petroleum Geologists’ monthly magazine, The Reservoir, between January and

November 2009.

The CSPG thanks Dr. Neil Hutton for his work in making this series possible.

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cover designed from images of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

CLIMATE CHANGE. CHANGE III:

Carbon Dioxide

by Dr. A. Neil Hutton

It is curious that this gas, which is the

fundamental building block of life, has

become vilified as the culprit of an

impending Climate Catastrophe. With

visual media, at this point, on screen

would appear a nest of stacks belching

forth great plumes of “pollution.” The fact

that this is mainly water vapour, the Earth’s

primary “greenhouse gas” responsible for

somewhere between 85-95% of

atmospheric warming is never

acknowledged.

What do we really know about CO2? From

my experience, the general public is

poorly informed. When asked to specify

the content of CO2 in the atmosphere,

and given a choice of 37.9%, 3.79%, or

0.0379% the great majority opts for one

of the first two values. However carbon

dioxide is a trace gas representing less

than 1% of the atmosphere, currently 379

parts per million by volume (ppmv). To put

this in perspective, only 38 out of every

100,000 molecules of air are carbon

dioxide. Then consider that it takes up to

five years of emissions created by humans

to add 1 molecule to every 100,000

molecules. Moreover, in the media and

other reports, it is commonplace to read

that humans emit 14.5 gigatons (GT) of

CO2 annually. This sounds enormous, but

it is never stated that this represents only

1.25 parts per million by volume annually

of the total atmosphere.

To provide some perspective on the

numbers, it is useful to compare the

relative amounts of carbon contained

globally in the atmosphere, the surface,

and the oceans. The atmosphere contains

750 GT C, vegetation soils and detritus

contain 2,200 GT C, the surface ocean

contains 1,000 GT C, and the intermediate

and deep ocean contain 38,000 GT C.

(Schimmel, 1995) These amounts, of

course, are not fixed and static as there

is a continuous exchange between these

global carbon reser voirs. Thus it is

estimated that each year the atmosphere

and the surface ocean exchange 90 GT C;

vegetation and the atmosphere, 60 GT C;

marine biota and the surface ocean, 50

GT C; and the surface ocean and the

intermediate and deep oceans, 100 GT C.

(Schimel, 1995). Therefore the human

contribution of 5.5 GT C represents only

a very small amount within the totality of

the carbon cycle. However, it is the annual

increase of 3 GT of carbon annually which

drives the hypothesis of anthropogenic

global warming (AGW).

Carbon dioxide is significantly denser than

the other elements of air. It is almost 60%

denser than nitrogen and 40% denser than

oxygen. Happily, gases do not segregate

gravitationally, otherwise we would all

suffocate in a layer of CO2 some 400 to

500 meters thick. Molecular activity in

gases known as Brownian Motion causes

rapid diffusion and mixing of the different

molecular components. This is also aided

by convection as well as global

atmospheric circulation such that the

components of the air are relatively

constant globally. There are variations

regionally and – especially in the southern

hemisphere – where some fluctuations

are attributed in part to La Nina and El

Nino events, but the variation amounts to

only a few parts per million by volume. In

general, the southern hemisphere stations

have values about 5 ppmv lower than in

the northern hemisphere.

As a medium to warm the atmosphere,

CO2 seems like a very poor candidate.

First, because it is a trace gas forming less

than .0379 % by volume of the atmosphere

and, second, because it’s thermal

conductivity is extremely low. Thermal

conductivity is a property which measures

how much heat per time unit and

temperature difference flows in a medium.

Most gases have such low conductivity

values that they are excellent insulators

in the absence of convection. The

conductivity of CO2 (0.009) is less than

half that of air (0.024), and it is only 15%

of the conductivity of water (0.058).

Comparatively then, the capacity of CO2

to warm the atmosphere conductively is

negligible. Furthermore, examining the

isochoric thermal diffusivity (a measure

of how rapidly a temperature change will

spread) demonstrates that doubling of

CO2 has a negligible effect. Based on these

fundamental physical attributes, CO2

can not be the vehicle of atmospheric

warming. (Gerlich and Tscheuschner,

2007.)

This, then, leaves only radiation heat

transfer as the principal vehicle for

atmospheric warming by CO2

. Radiation heat transfer occurs as a result of the exchange of thermal radiation energy

between two or more bodies that arises

as a result of a temperature difference.

No medium need exist between the two

bodies for heat transfer to take place,

since Photons traveling at the speed of

light are the intermediaries of the

electromagnetic radiation with a

wavelength range of 0.1 to 100 microns,

encompassing the visible light spectrum.

Atmospheric warming is believed to occur

as a result of the fact that the atmosphere

is essentially transparent to short wave

radiation in the visible light spectrum –

0.38 to 0.75 microns. However, global

warming theory suggests that long-wave

infrared radiation is preferentially

absorbed by certain gases in the

atmosphere, which causes it to warm. The

principal atmospheric gas causing warming

is water vapour and cloud with 85-95% of

the warming attributed to it. The other

gases in order of relative importance are

carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,

and ozone.However, carbon dioxide has been

identified in the global warming hypothesis

as having the fundamental characteristics

of absorption and emission of infrared

radiation (IR) and, as a result, it is claimed

that it is a potential driver of global

climate. The carbon dioxide molecules do

not have a simple single response to IR

radiation. Four modes of molecular

vibration, or spin occur in response to

photon stimulation. Carbon dioxide is a

linear molecule with the carbon atom

situated in line between two oxygen

atoms. The linear molecular structure

allows a vibrational response in which the

carbon atom oscillates between the

oxygen atoms. This particular response

has the ability not only to absorb infrared

radiation but also to emit radiation;

however, only some 5% of molecules

actually radiate at room temperatures. The

ability of CO2

to radiate has been utilized

in the development of lasers and in the

thermodynamics of combustion chambers

but this quantum state depends on

elevated temperatures and electro-

magnetic stimulation. Alfred Schack, a

pioneer in industrial thermodynamics, as

early as 1972 indicated that the radiative

heat transfer capabilities of CO2 at

atmospheric temperatures were

negligible. The other quantum states of

CO2

are capable of absorbing infrared but

do not radiate. Carbon dioxide absorption

of IR radiation occurs in four narrow

bands at 2, 3, 5, and 13-17 microns. CO2

occupies only about 8% of the infrared

band and, given its levels as a trace gas,

does not in itself have the capacity to

change the climate. This point is, in fact,

conceded by climatologists but they rely

on the concept of feedbacks to amplify

the effect. Feedbacks are unproven

assumptions that the warming by CO2

will

cause changes in clouds, water vapour, and

precipitation systems amplifying the

warming. The positive feedback

assumptions have been incorporated into

climate models which are typically the

major basis for global warming

predictions. All leading climate models

forecast that warming by increasing CO2

would cause an increase in cloud,

especially high altitude cirrus clouds,

which would then amplify the warming. A

recent publication by Spencer et al. (2007)

has shown these assumptions to be

incorrect. In fact the feedback is negative

so that as the tropical atmosphere (of the

study area) warms, cirrus clouds decrease.

That allows more infrared heat to escape

from the atmosphere to outer space.

Because CO2

absorption occurs over a

limited range of the IR spectrum it is

generally accepted that 99% of the

radiation in the CO2

absorption bands is

absorbed within only a few tens to

hundreds of meters of the source. In

other words the absorption capacity of

CO2

is saturated within a few hundred

meters above the Earth’s surface. Thus

doubling of atmospheric CO2

will reduce

the saturation distance, causing only a

minor change in temperature.

Climatologists accept that the

temperature will change by less than 1°C.

Nevertheless, as was discussed above,

they claim that doubling of CO2

will trigger

positive feedbacks, although – to this date

– there is no measurable evidence that

this occurs. Currently we are 40% of the

way to doubling pre-industrial levels of

CO2; nevertheless, there has been no

warming this century.

If CO2

is saturated, that is to say incapable

of getting any warmer by any further

absorption of IR radiation, then how does

the warmed gas behave? At this point

convective heat transfer will take over and

Figure 3.1. This figure is a plot of Historic Climate after Lamb included in the report of the IPCC, 1990 showing

the well defined Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. This chart of temperature variation is compared

with Proxy CO2

data from the Siple Dome in Antartica. What is noteworthy is the complete disconnection

between the proxy CO2

data and climate. Although the ice core proxies are claimed to be a direct measure

of atmospheric CO2

, they do not reflect well established climate trends. The decline of CO2

proxies is coincident

with burial depth and unrelated to climate. This should be compared with the data from Siple Dome Ice Core

in IPCC, 2007 Synthesis Report, p. 38, Figure 2.3., in which the horizontal scale has been unduly compressed

and the data gap between Siple Dome Proxies and the real CO2

values from Mauna Loa eliminated.

the gas will rise to be replaced by cooler

air molecules. Since carbon dioxide, is to

a large extent, a product of combustion

its vertical ascent along with water vapour

is a common feature of our winter

landscape. As the warmed air ascends the

pressure drops and the molecules expand,

which causes a drop in temperature.

When gas is compressed it generates heat,

as in the inflation of a tire, and when

decompressed it loses heat, the property

utilized in snow-making equipment. If the

volume remains the same and pressure is

decreased, then the temperature will

drop, which is the case in the global

atmosphere. The determining factor in

atmospheric pressure is the mass and

weight of the gas in that part of the

atmosphere above the point of

measurement. Air pressure increases

continuously from the top of the

atmosphere to the Earth’s surface and so

does temperature. This behaviour of the

atmosphere is described as adiabatic

because there is no actual change in heat,

but only pressure and temperature. The

rate at which temperature changes in the

atmosphere is called the lapse rate. The

theoretical lapse rate for a dry

atmosphere is 9.8°C per kilometer but

this is only for extremely dry atmosphere

such as in desert and arctic climates. The

effect of high humidity and cloud is to

reduce the lapse rate to an average of

about 6.5°C per kilometer. As a result it

is normal to find aircraft cruising at 10,000

meters (32,000 feet) experience air

temperatures of -65°C. Given an average

sea level temperature of 15°C the

temperature at 2,500 meters altitude is –

1.25°C, which is why mountains maintain

snow cover and glaciers. This means that

some 80% of the lower 20 kilometers of

the atmosphere (the troposphere) is

between 0 and -65°C. Therefore, in the

predominantly subzero temperatures of

the troposphere with the atmospheric

pressure progressively diminished by

adiabatic expansion, the kinetic energy of

the gases is greatly reduced. As a result,

quantum molecular activity causing IR

emission is reduced substantially.

Irrespective of the discussion above, the

IPCC 2007: Historical Overview of Climate

Change (p. 115, Figure 1) suggests that

some infrared radiation passes through

the atmosphere but most is absorbed and

re-emitted in all directions by greenhouse

gas molecules and clouds. The effect of

this is to warm the Earth’s surface and

the lower atmosphere. This statement

conflicts with the Second Law of

Thermodynamics, which indicates that

energy will always flow from a higher to a

lower energy state. Heat can not flow from

a colder body (the atmosphere) to a

warmer body (the Earth’s surface) without

work being applied. This is a fundamental

problem with the Global Warming

Hypothesis which unaccountably never

seems to be challenged. Clouds have the

capacity to absorb infrared radiation but

their capacity to emit is poor. Even if this

were not the case, the cooler cloud can

not warm the Earth’s surface. Clouds

generally, and low clouds in particular, cool

the surface. A point that is clearly made in

the weather records of the Little Ice Age

(Lamb, 1965) and more specifically by

Svensmark and Friis-Christensen (1997).

IPCC in the May, 2007. “Summary for

Policymakers” stated that CO2

was the

most important anthropogenic

greenhouse gas, that it had increased

markedly as a result of human activities,

and that its atmospheric concentration of

379 ppmv in 2005 far exceeded the natural

range of 180 to 300 ppmv over the last

650,000 years.

This statement is based on proxy CO2

concentration data derived from ice cores

and is based on the assumption that air

inclusions in ice are closed systems

permanently preserving the chemical and

isotopic composition of the gas. This is

one of the cornerstones of the AGW

hypothesis. Why should we doubt this

particular proposition? First, when

examined in detail the CO2

proxy values

are remarkably invariant within a narrow

range for a period of 10,000 years, during

which the climate oscillated through

several well defined warm and cold

periods. Unlike most substances, the

solubility of CO2 decreases as

temperature increases, thus warm periods

will have elevated atmospheric CO2

values

because of degassing of the oceans. In cold

periods, like the Little Ice Age, the values

should be lower because of increased

solubility of CO2

. As displayed in Figure

3.1, there is no correspondence between

the plot of proxy CO2

values from Siple

Dome and the corresponding plot of

Historic Temperature published by IPCC

(1990) following Lamb (1965) Reproduced

in Figure 3.2 is the IPPC (2007) version of

the Siple Dome data (IPCC, Summary for

Policymakers, p. 3 Figure SPM1). The

pronounced hockey stick shape of the

curve is due primarily to the intense

compression of the horizontal scale which

causes the sharp bend and near vertical

trajectory where the ice core proxy curve

intersects with the actual measurements

from Mauna Loa. It also neglects the 83-

year gap between the ice cores and

modern data (Figure 3.1, lower curve).

The most significant trend in the proxy

data at Siple and Taylor Domes in Antarctica

is a drop in CO2

values with depth as

shown in Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.3. In both

instances there is a nearly linear decline

in proxy CO2

values with depth, which

bears no relationship to historic climate.

Figure 3.3. This is a plot of proxy CO2

values versus depth from the Taylor Dome Ice Core. This data together

with data from Siple Dome is used to establish a pre-industrial level for CO2

of 280 ppmv in the IPCC 2007

report. This core covers an age range from the 17th Century into the Holocene, 8,992BP covering four well

documented warm periods, and yet, shows no variability in concert with the climatic cycles. The most striking

feature of the proxy CO2

values is the progressive decrease with depth suggesting depletion by diffusion from

decompression and mechanical fracturing of the core during drilling.

The depth corresponds to burial pressure

in the ice where each 100 meters is

equivalent to roughly one atmosphere of

pressure. The burial depth at Taylor Dome

is some 350 meters so that the pressure

at the base of the core is 3 bars, or about

50 psi. When the core is recovered,

decompression and drilling stress causes

a network of fine cracks which attract and

absorb bipolar molecules such as CO2

and H2O. The cracks become diffusion paths

for trapped gases to leave the ice, or for

some atmospheric gas to enter, thus

causing a depletion of the original CO2

content of the core. (Jaworowski, 2007;

Hurd, 2006). There is also strong evidence

indicating that the CO2

values in ice cores

are depleted. Stomatal frequency analysis

in fossil birch leaves (Wagner, 1998;

Wagner et al., 2002) show a much greater

variation in CO2

values from 270 ppmv up

to 323 ppmv (Figure 3.4, top curve).

Furthermore, there is a significant

response to the Holocene cooling event

from 8400-8100 BP. The atmospheric CO2
content decreases concurrent with
increased solubility in the cooling ocean.
In comparison the ice cores at Taylor Dome
demonstrate nearly flat values. (Figure 3.4,
lower curve).
Further evidence of the variability of CO2
values has been provided in a review by
Beck (2007) of some 90,000 analytical
measurements conducted before 1958 and
dating back to the nineteenth century. The
CO2 show rather large variations, in
contrast to the ice core data’s flat and
invariant CO2 proxy data. Beck’s summary
of the analytical data documents a large
increase in CO2 values co-incident with
the warming observed from 1920 to 1940
(Figure 3.5). In general, this data is
rejected by IPCC but not on grounds of
analytical accuracy, which is excellent, but
because the values did not fit their
preconceived concepts. Beck’s review is
thorough and comprehensive, and
convincingly demonstrates significant
variability in atmospheric CO2 in contrast
to ice core data.
Although a great deal has been made of
the dangers of CO2 emissions, much of it
is nothing more than fear mongering. The
truth is that CO2 is highly beneficial to
the planet. The measurements at the
Mauna Loa recording station are
demonstrating an increase in amplitude
of the seasonal CO2 cycle (high in winter,
low in summer), which indicates that CO2
fertilization is expanding the biosphere
and, in fact, creating a negative feedback.
Plants use CO2 to produce the organic
molecules which forms their tissues.
Higher levels of CO2 in the air allows
plants to grow bigger, produce more
branches and leaves, expand their root
systems, and produce more flowers and
fruit (Idso, 1989). There is an extensive
amount of published data indicating the
growth enhancement provided by a 300
ppmv increase in atmospheric CO2.
(Poorter, 1993; Ceulmans and Mousseau,
1994; Wullschleger et al., 1995 and 1997).
Fertilization by CO2 causes plants to
produce fewer stomatal pores per unit
area of leaf and the pores are narrower.
This change reduces most plants’ rate of
water loss by transpiration allowing them
to withstand drought conditions more
effectively (Tuba et al., 1998; Idso and
Quinn, 1983).
Similarly in the oceans, CO2 fertilizes the
organisms at the base of the food chain.
The high solubility of CO2 in cold water
explains the rich organic life of the cold15

Arctic and Antarctic waters. Alarms have

been raised concerning acidification of

ocean waters. However, much of this is

unfounded as sea water is not inorganic

brine but is dominated by organic life

which interacts with the oceans chemistry.

Surface waters in particular are teeming

with microorganisms. Cyanobacteria at the

base of the oceanic food chain

photosynthesis CO2

to provide sugars and

give up oxygen. These ver y ancient

organisms are believed to have provided

the oxygen in the ancient atmosphere,

which originally was dominated by

nitrogen and carbon dioxide, which has

had concentrations ranging up to 5,000

ppmv in the Palaeozoic. These values are

up to 13 times higher than present day

numbers. During the early part of the

Palaeogene Period, from 65 to 34 million

years ago, global climates were much

warmer than today with very little ice at

the poles, and CO2

levels up to 5 times

greater than today at 1,889 ppmv. (Pagani,

2005). The richness and diversity of life

at this time does not indicate any injurious

effects to the biosphere of significantly

higher CO2

Finally, the IPCC claim that the reported

warming since 1979 is very likely caused

by the human emission of greenhouse

gases (mainly CO2

) can not be supported

because it places an undue reliance on

proxy CO2

values from ice cores. The ice

core data, because of the low and invariant

values would indicate a prolonged cold

period. This is not supported by well

documented cycles of warming and cooling

since the Holocene. Therefore, one has

to conclude that the ice core data is wrong

or CO2

has no obvious connection with

climate change. The only coincidental

correlation of CO2

with warming climate

has occurred in the decades from the

1980s to 1990s. This correlation no longer

appears relevant since there has been no

warming since 1998 and the climate has

cooled significantly since 2007. The failure

to demonstrate a link between CO2

and

climate change indicates that the policies

being called for to fight climate change

can not be justified and are unnecessary.

To follow this path will result in an

enormous misuse of capital that diverts

from developing more effective and

efficient methods of energy use. The public

debate over climate change has strayed

far from objective science and has been

extremely distorted by the errors and

exaggerations in the reports of the IPCC.

It is a profound embarrassment to science

that hype and spin have replaced reason

in such an important issue.

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