I have been looking through the climate Gate stuff on the web with a little help from Wikileaks and
the clues provided are allowing me to reference the sort of detail one needs to look at the drive to parameter setting in modelling. Taleb is very much into statistical bias built into first principles in the Money Markets
Just Google Anti-Fragility.
I have all of these coding files so I googled one of the main code references and happily have found that someone has already started piecing together the Jigsaw. My first task then is to read through their notes.
I am doing this blog Highlighting key passages.
The first here is to do with Cloud and sun date which seems to be an anomaly. I am noting it as I am aware of two important pieces of work at least on Solar Magnetism and sunspot activity and also solar rays and Cloud formation. Cloud formation and Solar activity are very important, that there should be an anomaly is
So, to me this identifies it as the program we cannot use any more because
the coefficients were lost. As it says in the gridding read_me:
Bear in mind that there is no working synthetic method for cloud, because Mark New
lost the coefficients file and never found it again (despite searching on tape
archives at UEA) and never recreated it. This hasn’t mattered too much, because
the synthetic cloud grids had not been discarded for 1901-95, and after 1995
sunshine data is used instead of cloud data anyway.
you look in the program you find that the coefficient files are called:
For 1901 to 1995 – stay with published data. No clear way to replicate
process as undocumented.
For 1996 to 2002:
1. convert sun database to pseudo-cloud using the f77 programs;
2. anomalise wrt 96-00 with anomdtb.f;
3. grid using quick_interp_tdm.pro (which will use 6190 norms);
4. calculate (mean9600 – mean6190) for monthly grids, using the
published cru_ts_2.0 cloud data;
5. add to gridded data from step 3.
This should approximate the correction needed.
CL (climatology) The average climate in the recent past. These are high-resolution grids. Allows spatial comparisons of environmental features; the dependency of certain features on climate may be assessed.
TS (time-series) Month-by-month variations in climate over the last century or so. These are high-resolution grids. Allows the comparison of variations in climate with variations in other phenomena.
SC (scenarios) A set of scenarios of possible climates in the future, using data from climate models. These are high-resolution grids. Allows environmental impact models to consider month-by-month changes in climate from the past, through the present, and into the future. Future uncertainties are represented through scenarios.
CY (countries) Country averages, based on aggregating grid cells together from the grids in CL, TS, or SC. Allows international comparisons to be made, in conjunction with socio-economic data such as GDP, population, land area, etc.
cld cloud cover percentage
dtr diurnal temperature range degrees Celsius
frs frost day frequency days
pre precipitation millimetres
rhm relative humidity percentage
ssh sunshine duration hours
tmp daily mean temperature degrees Celsius
vap vapour pressure hecta-Pascals
wet wet day frequency days
wnd wind speed metres per second
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