This Graph Explains the Importance of Turnout to the outcome of the Election Tomorrow.
If Turnout is the 72.2% of the Brexit Referendum last year you can see that the Light Blue line shows That the middle third of the probability distribution curve on Ashcroft’s polling numbers has a Tory Majority of between 20 and 60 seats. The 2015 turnout was 66.1 % overall. around the same as 1997 general election less than the 77% for the 92 vote. Historically the 1950 and 51 elections had over 80% turnouts.
The total number of UK parliamentary electors in 2015 was 44,722,000, a fall of 1.3% from 2014.
The total number of UK local government electors in 2015 was 46,204,700, a fall of 1.3% from 2014.
Between 2014 and 2015, the total number of both parliamentary and local government electors fell in England, Wales and Scotland, but increased in Northern Ireland.
The number of parliamentary electors fell in all regions of England between 2014 and 2015. The largest decrease (-1.6%) was in the West Midlands, the smallest in the East Midlands (-0.1%).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of local government electors fell in all regions of England, apart from the East Midlands which saw an increase of 0.02%. The largest decreases were in London and the South East, both of which decreased by 1.6%.
The 2015 electoral statistics represent the first full registers following completion of the transition to Individual Electoral Registration (IER) introduced in England, Wales and Scotland in 2014.
Electoral statistics are used by Boundary Commissions, the Electoral Commission and central government to help with the improvement of electoral policies and for statutory reviews of parliamentary constituency boundaries.
For this General Election, the Pollsters are using a number of different techniques to second guess actual declared voting intention with the Results for 2015 where they were somewhat bamboozled. The thing with Assigning probabilities and making educated guesses is that assumptions however screened for bias they may be are still predictions based upon a best guess.
What we can say for certain is that the Higher the turnout than the higher the likelihood of other parties doing better than the conservatives.
The Tories were notable amongst all the parties on Social media in that they did not encourage voters, particularly the younger newly minted voters to Register, Lord Ashcroft perhaps told them something, The Same thing I am telling you now. If Turnout gets into the mid 70% range There is every chance of a Historic even Heroic electoral upset.
If the Turnout hits or Exceeds the record Brexit referendum voting level, Mrs May will be ordering a removal van, IS that a Boy Job or a Girl Job I wonder?
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