Lies Damned Lies Statistics, Selection Bias, Confirmation Bias and plain wishful thinking. Analysis Paralysis.

Labour flops in the locals as MPs prepare to Garrotte Brexit

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I have been looking more deeply at correlations between Local elections and General Elections and also considering in depth the UKIP COllapse and Increase in Voter Turnout in 2017.
The Broad outlines of my own analysis I put in a reply to Mike my Old friend with who I discuss these sorts of things regularly on Skype.


Roger Lewis
9:43 AM (22 minutes ago)
to MTF
Hi Mike, I think it shows that the BBC Bias has a great effect and that the pollsters are also seeking to spin their own research.


Analysis at a deeper level is needed and the good analysis that exists is also flawed as generally speaking comes from Polling organisations who are as trustworthy as Ratings agencies in Finance.
Take the Dr Prosser chap in my blog he is clearly a good statistician but knows which side his bread is buttered on He knows the game see these Tweets re Peer review.
I obviously have complete faith in the integrity of the publication process at that journal 👍


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Chris Prosser


Apr 28
2) A reviewer blatantly lied in a review in order to spike my paper.


I think I have a pretty good idea of who they were too (I had the temerity to disagree with something they had written) and that person is now the editor of an important journal.
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Chris Prosser


Apr 28
Chris Prosser Retweeted TimesHigherEducation


There were two reviews that opened my eyes to grubby reality of the peer review process as a grad student.
1) A reviewer confidently told me I shouldn’t include the main effect terms of my interaction because they were collinear with the interaction term.
Chris Prosser added,
Verified account


What’s the worst piece of peer review you’ve ever received? Six academics share theirs.
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Forget about the Tories and look at Labour, some claims that the ” Anti Semitism **Row has cost Labour in Jewish areas, Barnet and Leeds, Areas in Manchester etc. This was a strong play to get a bandwagon going against Corbyn, calls for Labour to be ahead in the Polls at this stage and so forth are much weaker than two years ago during the 2016 and 2017 Local elections.
The main point is ignored Mike and that is which media will influence the next General election, Election Purdah regarding Bias in the Fourth Estate remains a strong influence in a large cohort of voters who decide at the last minute who they vote for, Voters in Local Elections are pretty much those whose minds are already made up.
On this SLog Blog I rate it a rare Miss, the Corbyn Smoke seems to get in the eyes of our otherwise Ideology Free hero.
 While the local election results have left Labour scrambling for rationales, what happened yesterday continues to chart a course for the future. As I have long argued, Labour cannot win national power on its own, and Theresa May cannot deliver hard Brexit. The collapse of UKIP in England and Labour in Scotland is leading us ever closer to a bitterly divided and divisive culture.


During the past week, Labour has been getting its spinning ducks in a row, just in case the Local Election results didn’t produce the Conservative wipe-out it expected. The idea was obviously that, should the Tories emerge with even a scintilla of government credibility today, the Corbynista-Momentum machine will blame The Tory Plot Against the Underdogs based on the new ID requirement for voting.
Others will reach a different conclusion: maybe they might think, ‘Take away the voting fraud, and Corbyn Labour is nothing…
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