HAS CRYPTO’S XRP/LTC/ETC/BTC/ETHER FOUND A NEW LOWER LEVEL OR IS IT A TEMPORARY DIP What does your crystal ball say ?



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Hi Mike,

Cryptos are under the spotlight the US regulator recently ruled that Ethereum is not a security but Bitfinex and Tether are still under investigation.
The Whales are not stupid and the range within which Cryptos are trading plus or minus 10 per cent is still very profitable for those in control.
The Downside is always Zero, will all go to Zero? I think it unlikely, though some have and some still will.
I had this exchange with Craig Wright the other day ( I think he is one of the People who are Satoshi collectively, A collective of at Least 2 and the actual team over the first year or so of Bitcoin was a core of at least 5 Cypher Punks.

If you look at the general attitude of comments in Crypto compare and those who drive the sentiment ( people like Mc Affee, Verr and Wright, They more or less all think in terms of backing the Final Victor. I find this strange in that Distributed Networks demonstrate the theory of Anti Fragile (Robust) Diverse systems with Many points of Failure relying on the Law of Large Numbers to survive over Centralised systems with their efficiencies but single catastrophic points of failure.

The Upside for Crytpo/Blockchain relies on Two things Adoption ( Critical Mass) and Being better as an alternative to the existing system. ( Cleaning House)

Both Main Flavours BTC and ETH are working on their functionality and easier usage and hence adoption, Generally they see the main problem as a Scalability of transactions on the networks. I am much less worried about Scaleability than Diversity, Decentralisation and fair distribution.
The scaling of Proof of Stake is attractive but is that likely to lead to centralisation? This comment on Crypto Compared the other day Nails the question.

“Here’s my opinion on how they pulled this off. Most sensible people around the world, but Americans in particular, don’t want to be seen as stifling innovation. The current US government is under Republican control, and Republicans are anti-regulation, anti-taxation and pro-small-business, so they do not want to be seen coming down hard on tech startups or small businesses. 
Based on the way that Ethereum got away with it, and just my opinion here, at your own risk, but If you are serious about starting a company and not just trying to get rich quick and scram, you can start from scratch and raise funding to get your gig off the ground via an ICO. If you already have access to significant VC funding, and could afford to do an IPO properly, you may be on thin ice. The catch is that you need to convert your product into something decentralized on or near launch that changes the ERC20 token into something that is definitely NOT a security and is definitely NOT controlled by you or any single entity by more than say 5% per owner entity at most”.
“That last point, that Ethereum isn’t centralized means something very significant for Casper PoS. I’ve complained in the past about the need to have a very low minimum amount required to participate in “Staking”. The situation with the US SEC and their recent statement means that in addition to a low minimum amount, staking also needs to have a *maximum* amount, which somehow prevents any single entity from acquiring more than a certain amount of control over the network, or else they will be at risk of being declared a centrally controlled organization that is effectively issuing securities with their coin”.
bu-bye


bu-bye
Your point is a good one, but that’s where the legal subtlety comes in. There was an analysis by a securities lawyer I posted a while back that said that it’s simply not the SEC’s style to “go back in time” or “pick winners” by enforcing laws retroactively for behaviour in the past. If you’re careful about it and stay off the SEC’s radar, for example by using disclaimers for US customers like EOS did, you can get away with funding your development via an ICO. The key bit though is that you must decentralize at launch. EOS did so in a minimal way and took on too much risk in my opinion. I would probably have decentralized by at least 10x more than they did. If your entity is controlled by at least 200 different people or organizations, it’s pretty impossible to call it centralized in my opinion, and therefore it’s impossible to call your coin a security. The further you go beyond 200, the less risk you have of someone coming after you. 1/200th of $50B is $250M. That’s enough for me :)”

https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/eth/forum/USD

The way Ether is structured is quite Strong I think the ERC tokens referencing back tho ETH and ETC, I also see the Bitcoin Forks as something to be embraced. Where the Value of the whole top 20 is more evenly spread rather than between 33% and 40 % dominance to Bitcoin and 15% to Ether, with that sort of spread I think that a reference basket or index of all coins would serve as a sort of reserve currency pool to iron out swings in price to something more stable. This then becomes a key to referencing Crypto Currencies and the Value of the BlockChain Marketplace as a commons. Instead of valuing the security-based upon conversion to Either, Dollars, Euros or Stirling.

At the moment conversion back to FIAt is essential and inescapable as if you want to buy things you need FIAT most of the time. That’s the linkage that needs to be broken to break it more utility has to come into the network, If you look at the State of the Dapps many of the Dappps are trivial they are games and pretty mundane analysis and moving tokens from a to b toys.
1629 projects.

https://www.stateofthedapps.com/

The final point is the Chicago Mercantile BTC futures, this is at below 7000 for Bitcoin nothing is going anywhere until Bitcoin starts going up and Bitcoin has the Biggest Whale Problem and also the most infighting BTC, BTG and BCH until both

Bitcoin and Ethereum communities and other decentralised Mining Currencies and also the centrally Distributed ( XRP/Cardano ) camps realise they are a symbiotic system and act accordingly the utility will not evolve as quickly and smoothly as it can.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin.html sept contract 6120-7030 approx.

Looking at the progress of Web 3 there is a lot of good stuff being done I think a speculative rise in prices right now would be counterproductive its time for the System to put up or shut up, I think it will and then the real value will grow from real adoption for real services.

Just grazing the surface here Mike I have been getting into the Web 3 ecosystem Truffle and Aragon and the GitHub repositories quite deeply You might recall this link form a while back. It represents the scaleability view, Diverse synergy is I think much more important for value-added.

 

https://media.consensys.net/the-state-of-the-ethereum-network-949332cb6895 interesting update on Ethereum truffle looks good  ( This lik is broken for me might work for you, its a very good article but the site seems down at the mo.)

 

this is another good one https://medium.com/@matteozago/why-the-net-giants-are-worried-about-the-web-3-0-44b2d3620da5 and here is a discussion I had on the Seeds blog. http://letthemconfectsweeterlies.blogspot.com/2018/05/blockchain-is-world-wide-super-computer.html

New one starting here.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2018/05/30/128-gfc-ii/

That’s my 5 penneth worth anyhow Mike.

 

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