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Beyond probabilism

from Lars Syll

“Getting philosophical” is not about articulating rarified concepts divorced from statistical practice. It is to provide tools to avoid obfuscating the terms and issues being bandied about …







Hi Lars,
I Like Hans Rosling’s Possibilism, the very first Statistics Lecture I ever Attended was preceded by the lecturer with the old Joke about Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.
Even in Statistics Motivation on Context are inherent in the boundary conditions.
Whilst the dismal science, as faith-based humanity, is really metaphysical, a 2nd law-free- zone with no use for evidence, we will remain in what Bruce Charlton calls. “The insanity of pure abstract altruism”.
Pure disinterested altruism, imposed on all by abstract systems, is, therefore, a logical consequence of the moral primacy of pure altruism…
It is also insane and lacks any test in reality.
PC is good by definition and for no other reason; especially not because PC has been found to be good.
PC stands or falls by the fact of a secular intellectual ruling elite, and can be imposed widely by this elite only by the recent technologies of modern mass media.
And PC is only possible in a fully materialist and secular society: where this-worldly ‘goods’ and their just (i.e. altruistic) allocation can assume ultimate importance, over-riding all other considerations (such as the saving of souls).

The Scientific academy has succumbed to the Rovian Actors in history Syndrome as described by Ron Susskind.

´´The aide said that guys like me were “in what we call the reality-based community,” which he defined as people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. “That’s not the way the world really works anymore.” He continued “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors … and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”
Suskind, Ron (2004-10-17). Faith, Certainty and the Presidency of George W. Bush. The New York Times Magazine.

The Rovian Turn in Election punditry, Lies Damned Lies and Statistics. #Corbyn4PM

´´every living thing can become healthy, strong and fruitful only within a horizon; if it is incapable of
drawing a horizon around itself or, on the other hand, too selfish to
restrict its vision to the limits of a horizon drawn by another, it will wither
away feebly or overhastily to its early demise. Cheerfulness, clear conscience,
the carefree deed, faith in the future, all this depends in the case of an individual as well as of a people, on there being a line which distinguishes what is clear and in full view from the dark and unilluminable; it depends on one’s being able to forget at the right time as
well as to remember at the right time; on discerning with strong instinctual
feelings when there is need to experience historically and when unhistorically.
Precisely this is the proposition the reader is invited to consider:
the unhistorical and the historical are equally necessary for the health of
an individual, a people and a culture. ”
Friedrich Nietzsche: 1844-1900


Click to access lewis-convention1.pdf

Yet, in the end, the theory of games is scaffolding. I can restate
my analysis of convention without it. The result is a theory along
the lines of Hume’s, in his discussion of the origin of justice and
property. Convention turns out to be
4 The Strateg), of Conflict
(Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1960).
a general sense of common.interest; which sense all the members
of the society express to one another, and which induces them
to regulate their conduct by certain rules. I observe that it will
be to my interest [e.g.] to leave another in the possession of his
goods, provided he will act in the same manner with regard
to me

´´I would define the episteme retrospectively as the strategic apparatus which permits of separating out from among all the statements which are possible those that will be
acceptable within, I won’t say a scientific theory, but a field of scientificity, and which it is possible to say are true or false. The episteme is the ‘apparatus’ which makes possible the separation, not of the true from the false, but of what may from what may not be characterised as
scientific.”[1] Michel Foucault.

Red Lines, Settled Science, The end of History and entitled Facts. If Truth were subject to Patent Law.

“Whenever you get two people interpreting the same data in different ways,” “that’s metaphysics.” is a quote from an interview published in Scientific American with Thomas Khun the coiner of the term and proposer of the concept of paradigm shifts.

Authentic Discourses on Decisions to Act. @CultStateDotCom #LondonReal #DavidIcke #Ickonick #GrubStreetJournal #ConquestofDough #IABATO #TheSlog #LondonConversation #GolemXIV @davidgraeber @financialeyes #5G #Vaxxed @JoeBlob20 #DebtBomb @DominicFrisby

I Think Rupert Sheldrake sums up the “Science Republic” ( Polyani ) Best though with his Science Delusion Ted Talk.

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