@Ross Hendry, Hi Ross, A statistician Hooray. The Result for Newport is interesting.
1. Low Turnout 37.1% as per pro 67.5% 2017 and 70.2% Brexit Referendum.
2. Pro Brexit Stance Vote Combined 44.2% behind remain 54%
Conservative Matthew Evans 7,357 31.3 -12.7
UKIP Neil Hamilton 2,023 8.6 +8
A W A Ri Suchorzewski 205 0.9
SDP Ian McLean 202 0.9
D& V Philip Taylor 185 0.8
For Britain Hugh Nicklin 159 0.7
Labour Ruth Jones 9,308 39.6
Plaid Cymru Jonathan Clarke 1,185 5.0 +2.6
Liberal Dem Ryan Jones 1,088 4.6 +2.4
Green Amelia Womack 924 3.9 +2.8
Renew June Davies 879 3.7
On its face, the Newport result is squarely a remain result from the point of Canton Direct Democracy, what can we glean statistically?
First, Turnout, The 2017 Upset and Referendum leave vote was possible due to high levels of turnout.
The Media tried its best to achieve voter fatigue in 2017 in a second referendum or in a Post BRINO or Remain Parliament the turnout I expect would be record-breaking,
I made this video at the time about suppressing turnout
and these two Blogs,
June 07, 2017
TURN OUT IS KEY. ELECTION 2017. HIGH TURNOUT AND LABOUR WINS!!! #VOTELABOUR #DRIVEAFREINDTOTHEPOLLINGPLACE
OPINION POLLING FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM GENERAL ELECTION, 2015
Link To Lord Ashcroft Polling.
This Graph Explains the Importance of Turnout to the outcome of the Election Tomorrow.
If Turnout is the 72.2% of the Brexit Referendum last year you can see that the Light Blue line shows That the middle third of the probability distribution curve on Ashcroft’s polling numbers has a Tory Majority of between 20 and 60 seats.
The 2015 turnout was 66.1 % overall. around the same as 1997 general election less than the 77% for the 92 vote. Historically the 1950 and 51 elections had over 80% turnouts.
My own Efforts in 2017 were focused on trying to get at least a hung parliament and preferably to return Jeremy Corbyn, If He had won a Majority I think he would have been strong enough to declare his leave tendencies, and Brexit may well have played out differently all be it that the Pissing into the tent problem by the financial elite would still remain ( Gnomes of Zurich.)
To Avoid the same COG (Continuity of Government) interference in UK Democracy as President Trump is suffering from in the US by his own Globalist COG Neo-Cons And Neo-Libs ( Voltaire’s bastards). Mr Corbyn needs to Hold his nose and push for a Grand Coalition along Churchill Atlee Lines of 1940. The EU and Neo-Liberal Financialised Corporate Capitalism already opposes Brexit, which the British People Want. The British People clearly in this election on June 8th endorsed Brexit if it is a Corbyn Social Democratic Brexit and Not a Mrs May Hard Right Race to the Bottom Neo-Liberal Austerity Brexit.
Harold Wilson used to refer to the Money Power as the Gnomes of Zurich, Hot Money in the late 60´s and 1970´s was not nearly the Terror Wing of the Neo-Liberal “Queen TINA” Elites that it is now, even then Harold Wilson Knew to be wary of it. Dennis Healy Callaghan’s Chancellor got into bed with it. Starting the UKs Seduction by Thatcher in 1979 and her Bastard Son Blair in 1997.
Back to Newport West.
The Swing to UKIP from 2015 is what is important it is +18% should turnout have been at referendum or 2017 levels even average 65% levels of the previous two general election turnouts the combined leave vote united in a candidate endorsed by our Canton Model Direct Democracy MagnaPedia primary process it is easy to see that returning a Pro Sovereign Brexit candidate is fairly straight forward.
On the Result in Newport West, the MagnaPedia Soeveignty-a-Metre would screen all of the candidate’s utterances for Direct Democracy compliance( the language is obviously important and I am not suggesting our idea should introduce some sort of thought crime detector;) )
At the present juncture, We would probably have supported the Conservative candidate in this election and sought to get the vote out behind him to bolster the vote for Sovereign Brexit.
Direct Democracy needs above all to be Pragmatic and the pragmatist would see that for a Sovereign Brexit Candidate at this stage then Matthew Evans would have been the result we could most easily have achieved.
This is my first blush at the results but Ross if you have read this far I would be really keen to pick your brains for a sensitivity based gaming algorithm to analyse these results and apply them to the Marginal Remain/Leave constituencies. Canton Model Direct democracy has its first Real World Data Set post-BRINO treachery to build our Liberty Voting Machine.