#153. One for the sceptics, Nothing to fear but fear itself the economy as an energy transformation machine. #Nafta #RossPerot #WrongkindofGreen #EnergyEconomic #8thwaytothink #ConquestofDough #ObjectiveKhunts #GrubStreetJournal #OIP #Alexanadria

80f6c-tensegrity.png

Hi Tim,
Rather depressing reading in the comments if that sort of thing gets you down.
SEEDS is a part of the solution to the current problem. I personally think, as you know, that Seeds needs to be coupled with an embodied energy index that will then translate to an empirically falsifiable value scale for the pricing of monetary exchanges.

#153. One for the sceptics

1.oil, gas and coal remained, as they are now, the source of fourth-fifths of the energy that we consume.

There is nowhere else to start but at the beginning.

https://www.genfound.org/media/1374/pdf-generation-foundation-stranded-carbon-assets-v1.pdf
The scientists conclude that further economic damage from a potential bubble burst could be avoided by decarbonising early. “Divestment is a prudential thing to do. We should be carefully looking at where we are investing our money. (1)
(1)ED. This is the key misunderstanding, the whole basis of this analysis should look at Net Energy Surplus over cost of energy extraction, then in a real sense the Sentance , “We should be carefully looking at where we are investing our Energy ( qua, Energy )”, would have an energy-based monetary unit taking the place of the Debt-based monetary unit as a referent, the debt-based monetary unit as a referent  renders the statement meaningless a per pro-energy capital allocation decisions.

Here is a Graph of World energy use in terms of TerraWatt Hours,

My own analysis and synthesis of the World Debt Money economy and the World Energy

Here is the Final Draft Spreadsheet available to download. ( Work In Progress)
Go to Sheet 3.
Selection_792

POST NAVIGATION

Here is my Working Draft spreadsheet for the synthesis of the Energy Production of the world in kilowatt-hours and the Debt Based world Financial economy based upon local dollar parity currency exchange rate basis from the CIA World Fact Book.

Selection_791

Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) have, and continue to, play a dominant role in global energy systems. Fossil energy was a fundamental driver of the Industrial Revolution and the technological, social, economic and development progress which has followed. Energy has played a strongly positive role in global change.
2. Starting assumption.
In short, in a purely hypothetical situation in which it could be proved that the environmental activists were wrong, there’d be a huge collective sigh of relief, from government, business and the general public alike. Few people, after all, really like change and disruption.
#BeLikeVinnie

3. Money, then, acts simply as a claim on the products of an economy which, itself, is an energy system.

Money is the nothing you get for something before you can get anything Soddy.

soddy.PNG

4.This divides the aggregate of available energy into two streams – the energy which has to be consumed in providing a continuity of energy supply, and the remaining (“surplus”) energy which powers all other economic activity.

Energy is an input that transforms other inputs or fuels other input streams. Those other streams can be measured in some unit which should not be a variable, Wes Freeberg proposes Quanta in his big apple plan. The current Ruling financial Elite seems to want to base a unit upon Carbon emissions credits. ( See Spash for the shortcomings in this plan.)

5.We are, in short, stuck with monetary adventurism until it reaches its point of termination.

The process can be seen as not letting a good crisis go to waste or a planned centralisation of economic forces in accordance with UN Agenda 21 and 2030, or the Brandt report.

Shubick says this.

”The monetary and financial system of an economy are part of the socio-politico-economic control mechanism used by every state to connect the economy with the polity and society. This neural network provides the administrative means to collect taxes, direct investment, provide public goods, trade. The money measures provide a crude but serviceable basis for the accounting system which in turn, along with the codification of commercial law and financial regulation are the basis for economic evaluation and the measurement of trust and fiduciary responsibility among the economic agents. A central feature of a control mechanism is that it is designed to influence process. Dynamics is its natural domain. Equilibrium is not the prime concern, the ability to control the direction of motion is what counts.

6.The process which links rising ECoE to falling prosperity is illustrated in figs. 2 and 3. In America, prosperity per person turned down when ECoE hit 5.5%, whereas the weaker British economy started to deteriorate at an ECoE of just 3.4%.

Fig. 2 & 3.

EcoE & prosp US UK

World average prosperity per capita has declined only marginally since 2007, essentially because deterioration in the West has been offset by continued progress in the emerging market (EM) economies. This, though, is nearing its point of inflexion, with clear evidence now showing that the Chinese economy, in particular, is in very big trouble.

This is no more or less than a managed process towards a new Feudalism, a race to the bottom where the metric is relative levels of absolute poverty in the precariat. Prosperity is a redundant metric for the new Feudalism in the MMT Green new deal Gulag. The metrics will be utilitarian which will be similar to any metric used in concentration camps or slave colonies for Egyptian pyramid projects. What is the minimal sustenance budget for each economic human labour unit, what is the natural replacement rate and what level of control is required within the Pareto efficient distribution of Human labour unit classification? Think Brave new world and 1984.

7. Hidden behind increasingly desperate (and dangerous) financial manipulation, the world as a whole has been getting poorer since ECoE hit 5.5% in 2007. As more of the EM economies hit the “downturn zone” (ECoEs of 8-10%), the so-far-gradual impoverishment of the average person worldwide can be expected to accelerate.

  1. Who is your Average person worldwide? With Political Mathematics ( Statistics) it is important to define terms. Who is your constituency, Tim? Who are Agenda 21 and 2030 designed to raise up and at whose expense?


ESCHATOLOGY END TIMES PROPHESY

PROBLEM REACTION SOLUTION
SCARE THE SHIT OUT OF EM AND KEEP EM POOR

CALVIN SAID Belloc characterised the Reformation as

´´a rising of the rich against the poor´´,

´and indeed Calvin had written the unfortunate statement:

´´The people must always be kept in poverty in order that they remain obedient´´.

8.This calls for a thoroughgoing review of energy policy, and it seems bizarre that a system which can provide financial support for the banking system cannot do the same for the far more important matter of energy.

A healthy Dose of Bucky Fullmeister is what is needed vis the Production function for modern Industry and Industrial Agriculture also a look back into the concepts of Localism and Subsidiarity.

GFC2, Ephemeralisation, Doing More With Less. Bucky Fullmeister and Circular Economy.
rogerglewis Uncategorized June 7, 2018 9 Minutes

#128: GFC II

THE ANATOMY OF THE NEXT CRASH

 

Ross Perot passed away the other day. NAFTA and the new Trade Deal obsession should be added as a lens through which to see the trajectory and direction of motion here, I believe the Words of  FDR   “We have nothing to fear but fear itself”.

6 thoughts on “#153. One for the sceptics, Nothing to fear but fear itself the economy as an energy transformation machine. #Nafta #RossPerot #WrongkindofGreen #EnergyEconomic #8thwaytothink #ConquestofDough #ObjectiveKhunts #GrubStreetJournal #OIP #Alexanadria

  1. drtimmorgan
    on July 16, 2019 at 2:53 pm said:
    Thanks Roger – I enjoy your comments (though I do sometimes wish they were a bit more brief…..)

    – In my article I take what perhaps seems like a swipe at the founding fathers of economics, but is aimed, rather, at those who remain tied to C18th financial notation.

    – To the extent that conventional economics is ‘an industry’, it is failing its ‘customers’.

    – This means we need a ‘new economics’. Given our current challenges, I think this must embrace (a) energy and (b) the environment.

    – I’m quite optimistic that this will happen, for these reasons:

    1. Users of economics as ‘a product’ need something better, and are likely to see important advantages in having it before their competitors have it.

    2. The financial system is – to understate the case – in very big trouble. When this reaches crisis-point, the table-top is flipped into the air, the cards come down differently, and we might find this a cathartic process, making change easier.

    rogerglewis
    on July 18, 2019 at 3:55 pm said:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    Hi Tim,
    I tried to keep to the main points, it’s such a big subject and everything is broken.

    Pingback: #153. One for the sceptics, Nothing to fear but fear itself the economy as an energy transformation machine. #Nafta #RossPerot #WrongkindofGreen #EnergyEconomic #8thwaytothink #ConquestofDough #ObjectiveKhunts #GrubStreetJournal #OIP #Alexanadria –

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  2. John Ward on July 16, 2019 at 5:33 pm said:
    Doctor Morgan,
    This is only the third time in the last two years I’ve read something online and thought, “So it’s not just me, then”. Except that you have laid out the bogus nature of “growth” more clearly – and with a more inclusive range of energy stats – than I’ve ever managed. Hitherto, I have largely pointed up fake data (far more obvious than “fake news”) to make my point in relation to real employment, job comparisons, unemployment assumptions and inflation baskets….although I have also tried to calculate on occasions the bare-faced cheek of including QE in gdp calculations.
    I’m indebted to Roger Lewis who pointed me at your work.
    You must ensure that you are cloned at the earliest opportunity. I salute your endeavour, but continue to wonder just what it will take for Fred and Edna Spong of Chavez Cottages, Loose End to realise how they are being slowly boied alive.
    In the meantime, here’s one I made from toilet rolls, used toothbrushes and melted 78 rpm discs earlier:
    https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2017/10/13/fake-news-is-a-matter-of-opinion-fake-data-is-a-matter-of-fact/

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  3. rogerglewis
    on July 22, 2019 at 8:49 am said:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/9/e1700906
    Here is the link to the full Paper.
    “This observation may help explain the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum’s modest biotic impact. The Frasnian-Famennian extinction provides another exception. Supposing that it is indeed a mass extinction, its presence well below the critical line illustrates an important point: Mass extinctions need not be caused by disruptions of the carbon cycle (2).

    Modern investigations of mass extinctions often emphasize a plurality of causes. Erwin’s “complex web of causality” (8, 37) addresses how a combination of volcanism, climate change, marine anoxia, methane release, and other environmental stressors may have contributed to the end-Permian extinction. Recent studies of the end-Cretaceous extinction consider massive volcanism (38) in addition to a bolide impact (39). Flood basalt eruptions are also clearly associated with the end-Triassic (40) and end-Permian (15) extinctions, but their contribution to CO2 levels is ostensibly modest (41). Evidently, the carbon cycle both indicates and excites Earth system change. These dual roles merge, however, if external perturbations cause the cycle to respond by magnifying the initial disturbance. System-wide instability may then follow. Because the critical rate rc bounds qualitatively different dynamical regimes, perturbations that exceed rc (at time scales much greater than τx) suggest such unstable evolution. The carbon cycle thus becomes one of many environmental stressors, and an array of causes is naturally implicated.”

    The Discussion part of the Paper is interesting in that it concedes, “Mass extinctions need not be caused by disruptions of the carbon cycle” (2).

    I would add to that last quote “If at all”

    And point those interested in the Ocean Chemistry of Carbon Sequestration to Prof. Glassmans Acquittal of CO2 particularly Ocean Solubility of CO2 and Henry’s Law.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20190402051937/http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/2006/10/co2_acquittal.html

    ABSTRACT
    Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the product of oceanic respiration due to the well‑known but under‑appreciated solubility pump. Carbon dioxide rises out of warm ocean waters where it is added to the atmosphere. There it is mixed with residual and accidental CO2, and circulated, to be absorbed into the sink of the cold ocean waters. Next the thermohaline circulation carries the CO2‑rich sea water deep into the ocean. A millennium later it appears at the surface in warm waters, saturated by lower pressure and higher temperature, to be exhausted back into the atmosphere.

    Throughout the past 420 millennia, comprising four interglacial periods, the Vostok record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is imprinted with, and fully characterized by, the physics of the solubility of CO2 in water, along with the lag in the deep ocean circulation. Notwithstanding that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, atmospheric carbon dioxide has neither caused nor amplified global temperature increases. Increased carbon dioxide has been an effect of global warming, not a cause. Technically, carbon dioxide is a lagging proxy for ocean temperatures. When global temperature, and along with it, ocean temperature rises, the physics of solubility causes atmospheric CO2 to increase. If increases in carbon dioxide, or any other greenhouse gas, could have in turn raised global temperatures, the positive feedback would have been catastrophic. While the conditions for such a catastrophe were present in the Vostok record from natural causes, the runaway event did not occur. Carbon dioxide does not accumulate in the atmosphere.

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  4. This is an excellent Paper on the Mathematics of Climate Change and Climate Change Alarmism, Climatology as opposed to Climate Politics, http://www.scmsa.eu/archives/SCM_RC_2015_08_24_EN.pdf “The impact on the entire field of scientific research is particularly clear and especially pernicious. No project can be launched, on any subject whatsoever, unless it makes direct reference to global warming. You want to look at the geology of the Garonne Basin? It is, after all, an entirely normal and socially useful subject in every respect. Well, your research will be funded, approved and published only if it mentions the potential for geological storage of CO2. It is appalling.” 1. This simple calculation clearly demonstrates that there are not enough stations to model the surface temperature of the globe, and satellites cannot replace surface stations. The reduction in the number of sensors being used is fundamentally unsound: temperature varies from one place to another, from one hour to the next, and this natural variability can be tracked only by a very dense network of sensors. p.16 2. Determining an average temperature for a system as complex as the Earth has no physical meaning. Unfortunately, this question, fundamental though it is, has never been tackled by organizations involved in meteorology. For them, the answer is simple: you take all the sensors and calculate the average! p.23 3. According to the British Met Office, ‗The global average temperature is the arithmetic mean of the northern hemisphere average and the southern hemisphere average.‘ This type of reasoning is being used by all the international bodies, and one might legitimately question its validity. The thermodynamic mean, for its part, is too complicated to apply and requires the use of models (with all their limitations and uncertainties). We might, however, wonder why the arithmetic mean is also being used in areas that are less well provided with sensors or have very high or very low temperatures. If we content ourselves with an unweighted arithmetic mean, then areas with the highest density of sensors are going to be over-represented! Our conclusion here is very clear: SCM SA White paper “Global Warming”, 2015/09 – to calculate the arithmetic mean for the entire planet makes no sense and can only lead to errors; – you can calculate the arithmetic mean for areas well provided with sensors (Europe and the US), and compare the values from one year to another. This might provide information on local climate variation. p.26/27 4. On CO2 Measurement and concentration, Our conclusion is very clear: the entire methodology used to observe CO2 has to be overhauled before we can even think about the results that have been obtained by these observations. The first step is to correctly document the natural variability of CO2 concentrations (what affects them, and how do they manifest?). We must not forget that the aim here is to make a global assessment of CO2 concentrations in the entire atmosphere. Let us use a simple comparison to explain this. Let us imagine that we want to document incidents of sins committed by human beings. Before concluding that ‗we can restrict our investigations to the areas around cathedrals‘, which would at least have the merit of simplicity, we would have to find out about the ‗natural‘ variability of sin. Perhaps, in fact, more sins are committed far away from cathedrals? p.57 5. Cyclones. 3. Critical analysis In this case, we have been able to obtain raw data and conduct our own analysis, which clearly demonstrates, contrary to what we are all reading all the time, that there has been no increase in the number of cyclones over the past 40 years. We have found a slight increase in the number of Category 4 and 5 cyclones (the strongest), but the numbers are very small each year, and the increase might simply be due to changes in ‗accounting methods‘. A common deception is as follows: you begin by looking at cyclones that reach the US mainland (the ones that affect people and insurance companies) and you count them. Then you change the perimeter and include all cyclones in the North Atlantic, including ones that disperse at sea. Of course, the second group is bigger! As we said earlier, the statistics presented here cover all cyclones in the North Atlantic. p.67 6. Sea Level Rises. a. Two kinds of instruments are used: • Marigraphs, which have been around for 200 years; • Altimetry satellites, which measure the height of the satellite above the ocean; they have been around for 20 years, namely Topex/Poseidon (1992), Jason 1 (2001), Jason 2 (2008). The water level varies naturally: • Due to the tides (lunar attraction) • Due to wind and storms • Due to sea currents This being so, the estimates provided by marigraphs and satellites can be no more than averages, if possible over one year or several years, as phenomena such as El Niño affect the sea level for a year or more. p.68 b. E. Be careful! On Models. ( https://www.bitchute.com/video/dv8avoovsHqr/) As this issue has taken on a major political dimension, all kinds of statements are made by absolutely anyone at all. Great care is therefore called for when accepting information. 1. Models Conclusions based on any kind of model should be disregarded. As the SCM specializes in building mathematical models, we should also be recognized as competent to criticize them. Models are useful when attempting to review our knowledge, but they should not be used as 76 SCM SA White paper “Global Warming”, 2015/09 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTK0LHclNFs Critical analysis The rising sea level is a basic thesis for journalists, to support the doctrine of global warming. They say, ―Look, the sea is rising, and so we are in danger‖. It is perfectly true that the sea level is rising, but essentially this is due to the cooling down of the core of the terrestrial globe which has been taking place gradually for five billion years. As a result of this contraction, the lighter areas (the oceans) tend to rise up in relation to the heavier areas (the mountains). This is simply a consequence of buoyancy, and human beings have nothing to do with it. p.77 That’s Chapter 1 summarised and is sufficient for responding to the Pariah Status proffered upon me by Ron. I would close only by Pointing interested and critical thinkers at the work of Clive Spash and his Paper The Brave New World of Carbon Trading. https://www.clivespash.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/2010_Spash_Brave_New_World_NPE.pdf https://youtu.be/FTEaXBnXLts “A FIRE, A FIRE IS BURNING! I HEAR THE BOOT OF LUCIFER, I SEE HIS FILTHY FACE! AND IT IS MY FACE, AND YOURS, DANFORTH! FOR THEM THAT QUAIL TO BRING MEN OUT OF IGNORANCE, AS I HAVE QUAILED, AND AS YOU QUAIL NOW WHEN YOU KNOW IN ALL YOUR BLACKHEARTS THAT THIS BE FRAUD – GOD DAMNS OUR KIND ESPECIALLY, AND WE WILL BURN, WE WILL BURN TOGETHER!” ― ARTHUR MILLER, THE CRUCIBLE

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