SO in the spirit of advancing the discussion here goes nothing!
The SEEDS 20 version of the model calculates the scope for “value destruction” at $320tn. Not all of this is potential default, of course, as it includes a slump in the values of assets, and other reductions in “assumed wealth”.
In the matter of Debt default when you say “Value” is destroyed what do you mean?
Value is but an abstract upon an abstract. Wes Free and I had a very long and productive discussion back in the spring over the course of several weeks regarding Wes’s #Quanta and #Big Apple plan.
Wes and I have discussed seeds at length and feel that the Flaw in Dr. Morgan’s presentation of seeds is a tendency to fall at the last hurdle conflating Financialised notions of Political economy with Energy-based Ground up notions of a true energy-based Unit of account. The distinction is subtle yet critical.
I have extracted some of the exchanges between Wes and me, which have not been published by either of us and which I have as yet not found the time to turn into an essay, which I can get Wes to approve the aspects referring to the His, Wes’s #Quanta. At this point, I must add that #Quanta is a body of work which is likely in conjunction with SEEDs analysis to show the Human Fly the way out of the #Debtcredit Bottle When Wes does Publish the #BigApplePlan I have no doubt it will represent an Intellectual revolution into the new Post Growth Paradigm.
I have not been able to contact Wes the past few months and I am sufficiently troubled by this that I will try and contact him by Telephone today as all web-based methods are not working presently, I am rather worried at this point.
I think it is a question of semantics and the semantics of the statement
“;VALUE” is not a “;thing”;, like electricity is the flow of electrons. Rather, value is an
abstraction itself. Therefore, that device (#Quanta) which is used to express a quantity of
value, must ITSELF be an “abstraction”; are what I was questioning.
Value as you say is not a thing, it is a conceptual (Convenient Posit. Quine, Two Dogmas)
´´ As an empiricist, I continue to think of the conceptual scheme of science as a tool,
ultimately, for predicting future experience in the light of past experience. Physical objects
are conceptually imported into the situation as convenient intermediaries — not by
definition in terms of experience, but simply as irreducible posits18b comparable,
epistemologically, to the gods of Homer. Let me interject that for my part I do, qua lay
physicist, believe in physical objects and not in Homer’s gods; and I consider it a scientific
error to believe otherwise.´´
The process of endowing ideals with corporeal presence is described by Marx as
“a quantity of value, must ITSELF be an abstraction”; I think this is not so in relation to
#Quanta as an SI unit. Oscar Wild famously defined a cynic as someone who knew the
price of everything and the Value of nothing.( In Lady Windemere’s Fan, Oscar Wilde had
Lord Darlington quip that a cynic was “a man who knows the price of everything and the
value of nothing.”
The Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing.
There is an old saying, so goes the title of this blog, I have googled to find it’s origin here’s
a text from the context ( I haven’t googled it yet } First a word on Price and a word on
Are Price and Value the same thing and if not which one is worth more, is worth a measure
of Price or a measure of value or is worth another name for a measure. How circular is this
argument in the lexicon of Whats in it for me?
Let’s introduce another word, Market, the opposite of the word Market is actually Free
Market. I found that surprising but as with Taleb’s Fragility analogy, Anti Fragility, so it is with
Market the free Market is a sort of Anti Market a market where the artificial boundaries of
the Market which suggests order are removed and the Anti Market is the one we all feel a
The market Price level will be found.
Is there a difference between the Market Price and the Price of something is there an Anti
Price, this is the trouble with Concepts or Constructs when you start off down this road.
estimate the monetary worth of.
“;his estate was valued at £45,000”;
evaluate, assess, estimate, appraise, assay, rate,
the regard that something is held to deserve; the importance, worth, or usefulness of
“your support is of great value”;
merit, worth, usefulness, use, utility, practicality, advantage, desirability, benefit, gain, profit, good, service, help, helpfulness, assistance, effectiveness, efficacy, avail, importance, signific
ance, point, sense;
In modern economies, prices are generally expressed in units of some form of currency.
(For commodities, they are expressed as currency per unit weight of the commodity, e.g. euros per
kilogram or Rands per KG.) Although prices could be quoted as quantities of other goods or services,
this sort of barter exchange is rarely seen.
“Price” sometimes refers to the quantity of payment requested by a seller of goods or services, rather than the eventual payment amount. This requested amount is often called the asking price or selling price, while the actual payment may be called the transaction price or traded price. Likewise, the bid price or buying price is the quantity of payment offered by a buyer of goods or services, although this meaning is more common in an asset or financial markets than in consumer markets.
Value can not have a quantity it is a perception or notion even a convention.
“;What’s the good of Mercator’s North Poles and Equators,
Tropics, Zones, and Meridian Lines?;
So the Bellman would cry: and the crew would reply
They are merely conventional signs!
(10) A medium of exchange–say, coin of the.realm–has its special
status by a convention among tradesmen to take it without question
in return for goods and services. Some conventional media are better
than others: bulky or perishable ones are bad; ones that would retain
some use if the convention collapsed are good–but the inconvenience
of accepting a bad medium of exchange is less than the inconvenience
of refusing it when others take it, or of taking What one can neither
use nor spend. Again, as in (4), there is the complication of legal
sanctions, Refusal to accept legal tender makes a debt legally unenforceable. But again, such
sanctions are superflous if they agree with
convention, are outweighed if they go against it, are not decisive either
way, and therefore do not make our regularity any the less conventional.
I suppose we may safely define a medium of exchange as any good
SAMPLE CONVENTIONS I 49
that is conventionally accepted in some population in return for goods
and services. This definition raises an annoying question: is it right
to say that we have a convention to accept our media of exchange
in return for goods and services? It is false to say that our convention
is that we accept our media of exchange in return for goods and
services. For what follows "that" does not state any convention
because it is true, by definition, of any population. On the other hand,
it is true to say of our media of exchange that our convention is that
we accept them in return for goods and services. My question was
ambiguous. It can be read opaquely or transparently.6 It is like the
question whether Hegel knew that the number of planets is greater
than seven. He did not know that the number of planets is greater
than seven. But he did know, of the number of planets–namely
nine–that it is greater than seven
Pricing of Opportunity Cost?
If Value is not a thing then a quantity of a not thing is still not a thing
“a quantity of value, must ITSELF be an abstraction”;
Quanta as a unit of account is in fact grounded in a measure as follows, The Quanta and a Quanta is
defined as the energy used to burn 100 light bulbs for 1 hour. This is not a Value or something open to interpretation, gradable or questionable it is a measure by which other things can be weighed, appraises, assayed etc.
Robust International Standard of Value
The Terra would provide a robust international standard of value, something that has been missing for
decades. Since it is fully backed by a physical inventory of not one, but a dozen or so of the world’s
most important commodities, including gold, the Terra would be a very robust and credible payment unit
that offsets volatility and currency risks. This robust standard of value benefits commerce as follows:
Lowers costs by reducing the need for expensive hedging countermeasures;
Enables greater opportunities (including investments in developing countries) by providing
stable alternative mechanisms by which to conduct commerce;
Offers a dependable, cost-effective reference mechanism for global trade
It IS INTERESTING THAT Lietaer DESIGNED THE ECU.
De-growth is a different question to maintaining access to Necessary goods and services in relation to purchasing power. The access to Goods and services is a, surplus energy available for prosperity equation and not a fiscal equation based upon any of the existing proxies for *Growth* equated to Prosperity and a Feeling or belief as opposed to a falsifiable measure.
There is some explaining to do of course but De-growth means the removal of one of the great hidden Control mechanisms of our feudal existences they being, of course, Debt and Taxes, one is reminded of course in saying that of Twain’s certainties being Death and Taxes, would he say Debt today? did he say Debt even then?
“in the context of the Big Apple Plan, “money”, would no longer be a debt instrument. And therefore, your assertion of “money as debt” (money as negative wealth) would be undermined. I’m just asking that you keep that aspect of a money token (a-la Soddy), such that it can be conceived as a pure asset, without a corresponding liability. A method must facilitate the elimination of debt. We are leading steadily to our discussion of USURY.# Wes Freeberg , about Quanta
I link to a short essay on Plutarch, in the context of the Greek (“Debt Crisis”).
With respect to trade investment (loans), I would base these on Usufruct. Most ancient law codes are drawn around the return the borrower makes on the loan of the giver of wealth, Cows and calves, Seeds and grain yields, Acreage of land and average yield of similar types of land. All owing Credit for futures is the beginnings of derivatives which have a place in commerce but again to loan an imaginary unearned unit does not constitute skin in the game. Loaning an earned and proved unit on a blockchain is rather less problematical as that which is earned in exchange for something real has value to the person trading it in the sense of something postponed or foregone, surrendered ( bailed) or given up for something else( exchanged) around those sorts of contracts there have to be clear rules and definitions and my preffered set of rules and definitions would have no usury but usfruct , by this I would argue the lender maintains a responsibility to lend wisely and I argue that this would lead to better wider economic benefit.
Inflation is caused by the Interest charged on debt, it’s that simple the growth requirement in our economies is there solely to continue to Inflate the Currency and steal the forgone consumption( savings or investments) of those who have accumulated personal surpluses. It’s a wide subject
the oil price manipulation in its latest iteration, (It was ever thus)
was targetted to cause domestic budget constraints for the Russian Federation in hopes of toppling Putin. The miscalculation was the ability of Russian Federation to refocus on internal production and self-provisioning and has actually stregnthened the internal Russian domestic economy and increased the intra trade in Rouble, Yuan , Gold and resource offsets.
It is also interesting that Bang for Buck for Russian Federation military Industrial complex spend is much more efficient that the massively corrupt Pentagon spend and the sheer volume of resources going into the Black ops sector.
Lazards produce an excellent levelised Cost of electricity and storage reports.
ON MARCH 8, 2018 AT 8:05 AM
Two helpful annual reports from Lazards on the Levelised cost of electricity. Very informative.
Also this is a very interesting Wikipedia article on OTEC ( Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion.
Just by way of explanation by Profession I am a Chartered Surveyor and Valuer. I began my Career at Shell UK Limited where I was involved in the Tax Assesment of the St Fergus Gas Terminal in Peterhead, To Tax large oil industry plant and machinery open market valuations of Property Value-based taxes like Property Rates do not exist and to calculate a property value for taxation purposes a Valuation Technique called the contractors principle of Valuation is employed.
The Contractors Principle of Valuation is a residual method of valuation which adds up all the input costs and then applies a discount rate to generate an annual economic rent ( Net Present Value )
which can then be used to calculate the rating assessment. At Shell, I did hundreds of these types of Valuations and the Largest such valuation was for the St Fergus Gas Terminal.
Concepts such as Embodied energy also feed nicely back into measures of Levelized costs of electricity. Pulling these concepts of energy value as opposed to financial value into the equations should hopefully result in seeing what the problem we are trying to solve is? DO we want to save Society or the financial system as it currently operates?
Discount rates based upon the cost of Capital are pretty subjective as you will know Tim but it seems to me that EROIE measures Levelised costs of Electricity production and so forth and a residual valuation approach can yield a good method by which to assess the Economic potential for future prosperity based upon access to energy.
Energy and Capital are very different things.
The best description of this dichotomy I have encountered is this from Carol Quigley in Tragedy and Hope,
”Thus, clearly, money and goods are not the same thing but are, on the contrary,
exactly opposite things. Most confusion in economic thinking arises from a failure to
recognize this fact. Goods are wealth which you have, while money is a claim on wealth which you do not have. Thus goods are an asset; money is a debt. If goods are wealth; money is not wealth, or negative wealth, or even anti-wealth. They always behave in opposite ways, just as they usually move in opposite directions. If the value of one goes up, the value of the other goes down, and in the same proportion.”
Quigley Tragedy and hope.
Energy and Money are different.
This was the beginning of an unravelling of a tangled ball of wooliness for me wes. Uber for instance and their debt
Of course we factor in the recently failed We Work IPO. Show me the Value?
Show me the money
In this article, I present a simple model that encompasses the standard theory as a special case and which simultaneously can account for the above three ‘anomalies’. It is based on a ‘quantity equation’ of credit creation, which is disaggregated into credit for ‘financial circulation’ and credit for the ‘real circulation’.
Professor Richard Werner is from my own researches the foremost scholar on Monetary Theory and Banking today.
This distinction will map onto energy units of real Economic Activity and Financial Circulation will be an analog for Value-based pricing. ( Just a hunch?)
We see a crossing of paths and a glimpse of potentials and just how disruptive the Blockchain-enabled World of commerce will become, USE will eclipse ownership and money will become a much more directly mappable concept between use rights and exchanges rather than Ownership rights and trust-based custodial hierarchies. I do not feel a need to elaborate on the connections here, they are potential and the film gives some interesting metaphors as well as real-world illustrations of its conception of one Possible Future World.
Morgan has some of the pieces Wes I believe that Quanta, my own ideas of Lagom and Forres which are complementary crypto solutions with an energy insight, have the corners of a 10,000 piece jigsaw puzzle which is a gradient image of pure blue sky,
The Jigsaw analogy is very apt I think Wes, and that we have the 4 corners and probably the outer boundary will allow us to show a lot of well meaning people Like Tim, or My Friend Roy Madron where the pieces fit. I am a great admirer of literary criticism as an analysis tool for comparative evaluation of theoretical concepts, many literary types are innumerate ( Illiterate in Maths ) getting the insights of social scientists into the social relations aspects of commerce and trade in accounting terms is not a trivial task but worthwhile.
Perhaps Bernanke was doing ‘Gods Work’ after all?
I had a notion for Writing FisherPQ= MV in Quanta units of potential and units of production, the VAT idea expressed above was meant as a model of added value through the supply chain allowing ultimately for market pricing mechanisms in the consumption economy allowing Pigou/Dalton consistent status dynamics to endure hopefully, therefore, avoiding the social unrest that disrupting pecking orders would provoke.
I have their original paper somewhere cant find the link but its worth reading.
Regarding Tim Morgan, and some of the other Circular economy thinkers and circuit theory of money thinkers remember a lot of the published material is based on the notion of if it aint broke dont fix it. Where patronage is of such a degree as it is ( Fiancialised Corporate World Government) the Emperor is asking for comment on his new clothes and the Court of Academia obliges.
Tim Morgan: “This leads us to a finding which is as stark as it is (at first sight) surprising – we’re going to have to subsidise the supply of energy.” https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com
I strongly disagree with this assessment, which will invariably lead to incorrect energy resource allocations based on the easily manipulated designs of an unelected Central Planner. Major fail in his thesis.
Tim Morgan’s (SEEDs) analysis is generally quite correct and commendable. However, the secret dynamics of the world energy market have eluded him. America is only a large energy exporter now because the price of oil has been manipulated higher by KSA; our fracking output curve is a classic hockey-stick fall-off. China does not pay Saudi Arabia $58 per barrel of oil. Iran probably sells China oil for $20 per barrel! And the oil market, today priced in Brent, does not reflect the actual on the ground pricing differentials that exist in that complex. Oil is NOT fungible. Natural Gas IS! That said, Tim’s SEEDS project is VERY insightful. But, like us all, he does not have the actual full geopolitical story, which is a closely guarded one and presently in quite a state of flux. IRAN!(WesFree)
That previous efforts have been shelved ( they will not have ended in a conclusion that “there is no there there” ) The there that is there is not fakeable, or more scientifically/philosophically, Falsifiable.
Martin Shubik’s insights are very important on the reason an unfalsifiable money unit of account is at odds with the Tenets of Governance in the Machiavellian methods of Bavarian ( Kissinger)/( Metternich) Real Politik.
”The monetary and financial system of an economy are part of the socio-politico-economic control mechanism used by every state to connect the economy with the polity and society. This neural network provides the administrative means to collect taxes, direct investment, provide public goods, trade. The money measures provide a crude but serviceable basis for the accounting system which in turn, along with the codification of commercial law and financial regulation are the basis for economic evaluation and the measurement of trust and fiduciary responsibility among the economic agents. A central feature of a control mechanism is that it is designed to influence process. Dynamics is its natural domain. Equilibrium is not the prime concern, the ability to control the direction of motion is what counts.
Money and financial institutions provide the command and control system of a modern society. The study of the mechanism, how they are formed, how they are controlled and manipulated and how their influence is measured in terms of social, political, and economic purpose pose questions, not in pure economics, not even in a narrow political economy, but in the broad compass of a political economy set in the context of society. ”
I am familiar with Aristotle’s work in Causes. But I still don’t know where (in what context) you read MY USE of the term. Can you point to an instance where I used that construction? This will assist me in answering your question… Thanks. Happy St. Patrick’s Day! (wes)
Here are the Two Causes in the paragraph above.
“Georgescu-Roegen’s fund-flow model begins with the recognition that nature’s contribution is a flow of low-entropy natural resources. These raw materials are transformed by a fund of agents (laborers and capital equipment), which do not themselves become physically embodied in the product. Labor and capital funds constitute the efficient cause of wealth, and natural resources are the material cause. Labor and capital funds are ‘worn out’ and replaced over long periods of time. Resource flows are ‘used up’
As to the Causes, this was a quotation from the link. I included it to illustrate the dangerous notion of “embodiment” (labor and capital cannot be embodied in the output of production. However, there ARE indeed real “things” in nature of varying energy densities from which humankind has learned to extract energy. For example, natural gas, coal, petroleum, uranium and Thorium. The process by which labor and capital are mixed with these things to TRANSFORM these into usable energy (work, electricity, heat, food etc.) are evolving—markedly so as best delineated at the onset of each new “industrial revolution”.
Said differently, the value of a “thing” (or service) is not a derivative of the labor or capital invested “in” it. However, there is a scientific and indisputable amount of usable energy that may be “extracted” (transformed) associated with the application of a given process to coal, (or falling water), or thorium. Empirical, repeatable and universal. This aspect of Quanta, a method for expressing with a known unit exactly those quantities is its primary function. I spent the day today studying United Nations International Trade Law going back to efforts in the early 1980s to come up with a Unit of Account to use in the limitation of liabilities for Maritime, Aviation transport damages etc. Bizarrely, I’ve determined that the efforts were NEVER concluded, and in fact the most recent version of the UNCITRAL proceedings has eliminated references to a Unit of Account! Just like the worldwide accounting bodies… Incredible.
Whilst meditating on our discussion on the nature of “abstractions”, I stumbled on this wonderful quotation from the ancient mathematician (ca 100CE): “All things that have been arranged by nature according to a
workmanlike plan appear, both individually and as a whole, as singled out and set in order by Foreknowledge and Reason, which created all according to Number, conceivable to mind only and therefore wholly immaterial; yet real; indeed, the really real, the eternal.” (Nicomachus.)