ELECTION POLLS: when the denialism had to stop @Wiki_Ballot Introduction to the 4 Pamphleteers by Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes @DavidGolemXIV @JoeBlob20 #IABATO #TheSlog #GrubStreetJournal

Owen Jones and Nigel Farage may well be sharing tears in their beers on December 13th

¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤

The company Electoral Calculus has just produced this prediction of the likely outcome on 12th December:

Health Warning: The brand name Calculus may have wonderful scientific overtones, but this is a poll of polls prediction. All pollsters use varying measures and weightings, and differ in the way they phrase questions…as well as the interview medium used: phone, online or face-to-face.

All that said, this is a mind-concentrating table for the enthusiastic denialists in the Labour and Brexit Parties.

There are three key points:

1. Despite the Tories having lost 5 points of support since 2017, the Labour vote has collapsed by a third
2. Despite a doubling of the LibDem popular vote, the Party would still have only 25 seats in the new Parliament
3. On a rule-of-thumb basis, it looks like more than twice as…