Limbering Up the Political Maths, #LordAshcrostPolls #WikipediaGraffs. Let the Analysis Begin!!! #TwoFingers2Brino @wiki_ballot #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @Joe Blob20

download (1)
What do we learn from Lies Damned lies and statistics,
Polling and rhetoric and voting logistics.
Perhaps that Mandates like beauty are
in the eye of the beholder. Who Whilst in Glasshouses,
should Think twice before casting that Boulder.
Indeed one, should always be mindful
of the many known unknowns. And That politicians are rarely democrats even as they grow older.

Democracy Unfolded, the emergent reality of Brexit. ( A Poem, By Roger G Lewis ) #GrubStreetJournal #Brexit #Poem

frierre
Democracy Unfolded,
emergent reality of Brexit.

Election priorities, best PM, preferred government, trust on the economy, best party on Brexit… introducing my General Election Dashboard

By 

Each week until the election I will publish my General Election Dashboard, showing the results of my weekly 4,000-sample surveys tracking the intensity of each party’s support among different kinds of voters, crucial measures like best Prime Minister, preference of government, best party on Brexit and what people have noticed in the news, as well as the reaction to topical questions as they arise. Together with my weekly focus groups of different kinds of seats throughout the country, this will help explain the dynamics of the campaign and the factors that will determine the outcome on 12 December.

 

About to Dive into this, Will be blogging in a day or two consider this a starter for a ten-point lead?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

Opinion_polling_UK_2017_election_short_axis.png

6 Nov Parliament dissolved and official campaign period begins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

Selection_006

https://www.survation.com/survation-on-behalf-of-good-morning-britain-general-election-tracker-poll-week-1/

unnamed.png

DETAIL WITH “ANOTHER PARTY” LISTED

CON 42%
LAB 28%
LD 13%
BRX 5%
GRE 3%
SNP 3%
PC 1%
OTHER 4%

Get the data 
https://www.survation.com/survation-on-behalf-of-good-morning-britain-general-election-tracker-poll-week-1/


Note – The Conservative Party had a larger polling lead over Labour at this point in the campaign in 2017.

Equivalent polling  for Survation / Good Morning Britain* on May 6th 2017 ahead of the election on June 8th 2017 had voting intention figures of:
Conservative: 47%
Labour: 30%
Liberal Democrat: 7%
UKIP: 4%
Green: 3%
Another party  9%

*The final Survation / Good Morning Britain polling in 2017 correctly indicated a hung parliament in the final poll.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/turnout

6/4 on for a 65-70% turnout
9/4 – 3/1 on for a 60-65% turnout
5-7/1 under 60% turnout

60-65 % seems the best value at those levels I think we will see a remainer parliament returned Under 60% I think similarly the old rules would still apply regarding tribal splits

I think only with a very high turn out will the don’t knows and only voted once before in 2016, will figure that requires a miracle of social media especially as the Main search engine Google is most certainly “doing Evil”

ANALYSIS: Why the cult of Certainty is demographically divisive. JohnWard is (Athos) and why we all prefer the smell of our own farts. #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos)

download.jpeg

It’s Orwellian,

123

The Rovian Turn in Election punditry, Lies Damned Lies and Statistics. #Corbyn4PM

The scripted narrative will surely deliver a Tory landslide or will it? We will see tomorrow how strong the Establishment spin machine remains in France. There seems to be rather a lot of Rovian type telekinesis being practised by the Neo-Liberal apologists who invariably do not acknowledge their ideological master.   ´´The aide said that …Continue readingThe Rovian Turn in Election punditry, Lies Damned Lies and Statistics. #Corbyn4PM

The Rovian Actors in History world of 1984 and 2019. “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—forever.” O’Brien on Goldstein. #Solipsism #FUD #Fear, #uncertainty and #doubt

  The establishment is at war with itself, Trump and Brexit, 2016 was a watershed year post-2008 crash. How things pan out from here boil down to how Events Turn out. In the Mac Millan sense. https://youtu.be/y1nbtimryAA Super Mac ( Harold Mc Millan), was quite right when he said you have never had it so …Continue reading

 

POLLING AND JUNE ELECTION

Did all pollsters get it wrong? Not quite! The Daily Politics Posted at16:42 https://emp.bbc.com/emp/SMPj/2.11.13/iframe.html Election 2017: Lyons-Lowe and Mattinson on polling and result Most pollsters got the general election result wrong, although Daily Politics viewers saw Survation chief executive Damian Lyons-Lowe give an accurate prediction on the eve of polling. Presenter Jo Coburn brought him …Continue readingPOLLING AND JUNE ELECTION

Turn Out Is Key. Election 2017. High Turnout and Labour Wins!!! #VoteLabour #DriveAfreindtothePollingPlace

Link To Lord Ashcroft Polling. This Graph Explains the Importance of Turnout to the outcome of the Election Tomorrow. If Turnout is the 72.2% of the Brexit Referendum last year you can see that the Light Blue line shows That the middle third of the probability distribution curve on Ashcroft’s polling numbers has a Tory …Continue readingTurn Out Is Key. Election 2017. High Turnout and Labour Wins!!! #VoteLabour #DriveAfreindtothePollingPlace

Salience, Relevance, Differentiation and The Polling Booth , A Crosby Show Blogzine.

Salience, Relevance, Differentiation and The Polling Booth point of sale The NHS, Fairness, Immigration & People, Brexit and an end to Austerity. Are the Relevant and Salient issues I get from the Data. Applying An analysis with the lens of Lynton Crosby’s 4 Elements in Campaigning, Namely; 1. Salience, ( Is it out there) 2. …Continue readingSalience, Relevance, Differentiation and The Polling Booth , A Crosby Show Blogzine.

The Crosby Show Analysis. Bojos, Fish and Chips and Marmite Advert. 4 Pamphleteers by Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes @DavidGolemXIV @JoeBlob20

Q: Hey! Boris, all right? A: I’m good how you? 00:05 Q:What’s been on your mind today? 00:07 A: Well I can’t hide it from you, I’ve been 00:09 thinking a bit about this general 00:11 election campaign. Q:How do you typically 00:13 start your day? A: I tend to get up pretty 00:16 early …Continue readingThe Crosby Show Analysis. Bojos, Fish and Chips and Marmite Advert. 4 Pamphleteers by Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes @DavidGolemXIV @JoeBlob20

#158. An air of unreality Election 2019, Its the Tiger in your Tank Not the Pound in your Pocket? The Economy is an Energy System Stupid! 4 Pamphleteers by Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes @DavidGolemXIV @JoeBlob20 “”Whose Sovereignty, Our Sovereignty!””

Originally posted on Surplus Energy Economics:
DE-GROWTH AND DENIAL IN THE UNITED KINGDOM Now that a general election has become the latest twist in the saga of “Brexit” – Britain’s ‘on-off-maybe’ withdrawal from the European Union – it seems appropriate to review the situation and outlook for the United Kingdom from a Surplus Energy Economics…

As long as politics is the shadow cast on society by big business, the attenuation of the shadow will not change the substance. John Dewey #GrubStreetJournal #TheThreePamphlateers @financialeyes @Wiki_Ballot @JoeBlob20 #IABATO #COGBrexit #BrexitElection2019 #PoliticalPantomime @GrubStreetJourno

    Salience, Relevance, Differentiation and The Polling Booth , A Crosby Show Blogzine.  rogerglewis  Uncategorized  May 30, 2017 20 Minutes Salience, Relevance, Differentiation and The Polling Booth point of sale The NHS, Fairness, Immigration & People, Brexit and an end to Austerity. Are the Relevant and Salient issues I get from the Data. Applying An analysis with the …Continue readingAs long as politics is the shadow cast on society by big business, the attenuation of the shadow will not change the substance. John Dewey #GrubStreetJournal #TheThreePamphlateers @financialeyes @Wiki_Ballot @JoeBlob20 #IABATO #COGBrexit #BrexitElection2019 #PoliticalPantomime @GrubStreetJourno

Forty days and forty nights @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes @DavidGolemXIV @JoeBlob20 #IABATO #TheSlog #GrubStreetJournal #BREXITElectionSpecial #APeoplesVoteByStealth

Originally posted on The Slog.:
If the Brexit Party doesn’t get Real and Organised about electoral tactics, it will be humiliated on December 12th ¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤ Glancing across the UK press titles this morning, it was hard to spot a flash bulb, glimmer or even scintilla of insight about the forthcoming election on December 12th. Now we…

Organise a @Wiki_Ballot Constituency Primary. Throw your Tactical Voting weight behind the Sovereign Brexit Candidate. #IABATO #GrubStreetJournal #TheThreePamphlateers @financialeyes @Wiki_Ballot @JoeBlob20 

Latest Claimed Primary Page with analysis from Survation https://wikitacticalvoting.miraheze.org/wiki/North_East_Somerset#Brexit_Referendum THE BATON PASSES TO FARAGE OPINION: Confused about Brexit? You shouldn’t be. This morning, the situation for keen, mild and even undecided Brexiteers wondering where their vote should go has never been clearer. Boris has been forced to ditch his Withdrawal Bill. This is an excellent outcome …

8 thoughts on “Limbering Up the Political Maths, #LordAshcrostPolls #WikipediaGraffs. Let the Analysis Begin!!! #TwoFingers2Brino @wiki_ballot #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @Joe Blob20

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.