#JuntaGate doesn’t bother me, does it bother you, Tell the Truth ? The #Contrick19 News Stand Over Population Paper. Over Population is a general Term, the question can be broken down into two components;One, Over Population what is it? And, two, Overpopulation, do we have that problem ? In these questions Kippling’s Six honest serving …
Critique of the "Systems Paper", Feedback And Dis-Equilibrium In Human O… https://t.co/GrMOKITwFD via @YouTube — Wiki_Ballot (@wiki_ballot) December 17, 2019 is a Trailer for the premiere of an Animated ( Cartoon, not heated) debate Between Steve B Kurtz, and Roger G Lewis. Steven and Roger have been arguing on the SEEDS Blog of Dr Tim …
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Ranjan, 08:28 morning 08:29 Hi RanjanRanjan, We will see what transpires. Magnanimity and a fair crack of the “Whip” Cummings has not been mentioned, He really has shown the way, We need to look closely at Cummings and his Political motivations are they Technocratic subsidiarian or Technocratic Authoritarian, Authoritarianism and Subsidiarity are mutually exclusive; I …
https://youtu.be/asTJvl_rx0Y 🎥 Must-watch: Anna Soubry vs Caroline Flint on the Norway/EEA optionvia @YouTube Interview #GE2019 John Ward aka The Slog By Roger Lewis https://youtu.be/asTJvl_rx0Y via @YouTube This is the link which people can set a reminder to watch live the recorded stream is then down loadable and I will upload it to bit shoot when we finish. The Blog …
way to put it that’s right well what I 08:32 say is that if people want to exercise 08:35 power there are four essential ways of 08:38 doing it one is to control the means of 08:40 economic production economic power one 08:42 is to control the ideologies the the 08:45 belief systems the …
Queen Mab Shelly. Nature! -no! Kings, priests and statesmen blast the human flower Even in its tender bud; their influence darts Like subtle poison through the bloodless veins Of desolate society. The child, Ere he can lisp his mother’s sacred name, Swells with the unnatural pride of crime, and lifts His baby-sword even in a …
Heres my own bale string analysis with a bit of gaffer tape, every little helps it may not be pretty but it’s enthusiastic and well-meant. I suspect you chaps are on the money. The range of seats predicted by the polling extremes is 14 seat majority at the low end and 114 seats at the high end, the final vote, in my opinion, will break one way or the other on the day, depending on two things, Turnout as in 2017 will be key, is it the Brexit election and will disgruntled Brexit voters from 2016 turn out in force and Vote for “BRINO”, and secondly The don’t know’s, will they go for one side or the other or simply not bother? So my prediction is this, it will either be a Hung Parliament with Labour short by up to 30 or so seats or a Tory Majority in excess of 100 seats. And the telling factor will be whether or not the Norweigan Blue is in fact deceased.
Applying the same method again, the table below shows that both the 2018 and 2019 rounds of local elections point to a clear lead for the Conservatives in a subsequent general election. However, the forecast shares of the vote from both rounds do not suggest a big enough lead for the Conservatives to be sure of an overall majority. On the average of the two set of vote shares, coupled with a uniform change projection (also using last night’s YouGov MrP projected SNP and PC vote shares) points to a very narrow Conservative majority of 8.
Forecast share based on 2018 results
Forecast share based on 2019 results
Average forecast share
Standard Error of share forecast
The fact that a forecast based on local elections 7 and 19 months ago should be so close to last night’s YouGov MrP projection of Con 339, Lab 231, LD 15 is remarkable. There is just a difference of 10 seats for the Tories and none for Labour.
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