Not The Grub Street Journal

Exegesis Hermeneutics Flux Capacitor of Truthiness

Don’t Give Up, “The Passion for freedom dieth not”. December 28, 2019Kurt Nimmo https://kurtnimmo.blog/2019/12/28/2020-prognostication-and-the-end-of-this-blog/ 2020 Prognostication and the End of this Blog Below I enumerate the reasons we will be unable to effectuate meaningful political and social change in America and why I have decided this blog is pointless.  1. The wars will continue. No …

Continue reading

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/12/07/159-the-perils-of-equilibria/ https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/12/20/160-new-years-revolutions/ rogerglewison December 25, 2019 at 8:11 am said:Your comment is awaiting moderation.Hi David,Its an excellent question and also one which Tim has addressed up to a point here before. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2018/06/20/129-why-what-how/#comment-7389 drtimmorganon June 28, 2018 at 8:21 am said:Thanks Roger. I think we can start with the observation that what conventional economics should measure …

Continue reading

Over Population Paper. Over Population is a general Term, the question can be broken down into two components;One, Over Population what is it? And, two, Overpopulation, do we have that problem ? In these questions Kippling’s Six honest serving men will help us with both parts of the question. What and Why and When And …

Continue reading

  https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/12/07/159-the-perils-of-equilibria/comment-page-2/#comments https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/12/07/159-the-perils-of-equilibria/   Working on a formal cited paper for Feedback And Dis-Equilibrium In Human Overpopulation. An update on the Intemperate Mr Kurtz.     #159. The perils of equilibria Posted on December 7, 2019 ‘INDICATIONS AND WARNINGS’ Putting together what might turn out to be the last article published here this year has been one …

Continue reading

Critique of the "Systems Paper", Feedback And Dis-Equilibrium In Human O… https://t.co/GrMOKITwFD via @YouTube — Wiki_Ballot (@wiki_ballot) December 17, 2019 is a Trailer for the premiere of an Animated ( Cartoon, not heated) debate Between Steve B Kurtz, and Roger G Lewis. Steven and Roger have been arguing on the SEEDS Blog of Dr Tim …

Continue reading

accountability (5) answer (5) anything (13) anyway (9) around (8) behind (5) believe (7) best (6) bit (11) book (5) boris (6) business (5) called (6) care (5) chance (5) course (6) done (8) election (20) empty (6) end (8) everybody (6) everything (5) extremely (11) fact (5) far (5) form (5) general (5) gets (6) getting (5) give (8) going (22) gonna (7) government (6) greatest (5) group (5) guy (7) happen (5) higher (5) hours (4) human (6) important (7) issues (10) john (14) labour (5) line (7) live (6) lot (11) lots (6) majority (10) man (10) matter (5) mind (6) money (9) mr (5) music (5) …

Continue reading

Ranjan, 08:28 morning 08:29 Hi RanjanRanjan, We will see what transpires. Magnanimity and a fair crack of the “Whip” Cummings has not been mentioned, He really has shown the way, We need to look closely at Cummings and his Political motivations are they Technocratic subsidiarian or Technocratic Authoritarian, Authoritarianism and Subsidiarity are mutually exclusive; I …

Continue reading

https://youtu.be/asTJvl_rx0Y 🎥 Must-watch: Anna Soubry vs Caroline Flint on the Norway/EEA optionvia @YouTube Interview #GE2019 John Ward aka The Slog By Roger Lewis https://youtu.be/asTJvl_rx0Y via @YouTube  This is the link which people can set a reminder to watch live the recorded stream is then down loadable and I will upload it to bit shoot when we finish. The Blog …

Continue reading

  way to put it that’s right well what I 08:32 say is that if people want to exercise 08:35 power there are four essential ways of 08:38 doing it one is to control the means of 08:40 economic production economic power one 08:42 is to control the ideologies the the 08:45 belief systems the …

Continue reading

Queen Mab Shelly. Nature! -no! Kings, priests and statesmen blast the human flower Even in its tender bud; their influence darts Like subtle poison through the bloodless veins Of desolate society. The child, Ere he can lisp his mother’s sacred name, Swells with the unnatural pride of crime, and lifts His baby-sword even in a …

Continue reading

download (4)

via The 2018 and 2019 local election results suggested the Conservatives might struggle to get a majority at the next general election

I do think this is a very promising Indicator. The spread in the Opinion Polls seems so wide as if two different weighting factors are in use.

https://notthegrubstreetjournal.com/2019/12/11/capons-turkeys-and-norweigan-blues-ge2019will-santa-finds-out-whose-naughty-and-nice-who-will-win-the-race-for-number-ten-grub-street-says-corbyn-wiki-ballot-says-johnson-who-believes-in-santa-a/

Heres my own bale string analysis with a bit of gaffer tape, every little helps it may not be pretty but it’s enthusiastic and well-meant. I suspect you chaps are on the money. The range of seats predicted by the polling extremes is 14 seat majority at the low end and 114 seats at the high end, the final vote, in my opinion, will break one way or the other on the day, depending on two things, Turnout as in 2017 will be key, is it the Brexit election and will disgruntled Brexit voters from 2016 turn out in force and Vote for “BRINO”, and secondly The don’t know’s, will they go for one side or the other or simply not bother? So my prediction is this, it will either be a Hung Parliament with Labour short by up to 30 or so seats or a Tory Majority in excess of 100 seats. And the telling factor will be whether or not the Norweigan Blue is in fact deceased.

https://electionsetc.com/2019/12/11/the-2018-and-2019-local-election-results-suggested-the-conservatives-might-struggle-to-get-a-majority-at-the-next-general-election/

Applying the same method again, the table below shows that both the 2018 and 2019 rounds of local elections point to a clear lead for the Conservatives in a subsequent general election. However, the forecast shares of the vote from both rounds do not suggest a big enough lead for the Conservatives to be sure of an overall majority. On the average of the two set of vote shares, coupled with a uniform change projection (also using last night’s YouGov MrP projected SNP and PC vote shares) points to a very narrow Conservative majority of 8.

Party Forecast share based on 2018 results Forecast share based on 2019 results Average forecast share Standard Error of share forecast Seats forecast
Con 40.8 36 38.4 4 329
Lab 33.8 29 31.4 4 231
LD 13.4 15.4 14.4 4 23
Other 12 19.6 15.8 4 65

The fact that a forecast based on local elections 7 and 19 months ago should be so close to last night’s YouGov MrP projection of Con 339, Lab 231, LD 15 is remarkable. There is just a difference of 10 seats for the Tories and none for Labour.

December 11, 2019

bank (10) banking (6) banks (10) bit (4) boris (5) break (5) brexit (6) briggs (11) brown (5) central (4) chancellor (5) conservative (8) deutsche (5) done (6) economy (4) education (6) election (4) eu (5) financial (12) general (10) generally (4) getting (5) going (13) gordon (5) government (6) health (7) idea (4) important (6) issues (4) johnson (5) labor (6) law (5) markets (5) moment (5) money (6) order (5) parliament (5) people (17) question (5) real (4) saying (6) sort (6) starts (4) system (7) things (15) think (25) treasury (4) view (5) vote (7) voters (4) created at TagCrowd.com This Blog …

Continue reading

%d bloggers like this: