https://youtu.be/4vxwTIy_huo On Wiki Ballot there is a Long Piece explaining how Boris Johnson's Deal is not Brexit and it has serious flaws that make it worse than Theresas Mays Risible Effort, which Johnson himself, resigned over. Once Farage stood down all candidates against Tory held seats, remainer and leaver alike any hopes of a Brexit … Continue reading Brino is not Brexit. Get Brexit done describes Brino Perfectly in its Anagram “Being Extorted”. Labour Leavers get behind a Corbyn Lexit! #TwoFingers2Brino @wiki_ballot #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20 #NHS #WASPI
The spread in the polls is quite stark John, my preferred collation of all of them is Wikipedia, I have done some editing for political articles on Wikipedia in connection with Both David Malone a Shahrar Ali and also got stuck into some of the UKIP stuff too. Wikipedia editing is dominated by Lib Dems and Tories, and the Establishment line is very carefully husbanded, that said the polling Articles are great and cover all campaigns.
9 days out the spread is so big as to suggest that the smoothing adopted by the various pollsters is still somewhat eccentric. The Purdha effect does get stronger the longer the campaign goes on, this effect is very strong as the sort of brainwashing the electorate undergoes outside of election purdah rules wears off fairly quickly and a very large number of voters ( The Swing Vote often do not make up their mind until the very last minute and with the Social Media Reach of Labours Campaigning engine everything is still to play for on the doorstep and on the handheld devices through social media.
The BBC poll of polls is 3 days behind and I think dragging its feet on purpose. The increase in the projected Younger vote based upon registrations is also skewed in telephone polls, I do not know if that is empirically supported but I saw the point made the other day and it seems a reasonable suggestion that telephone polling tends to get a more middle-aged to elderly response.
The Bookies odds are not much of a better clue either this time around, although some books make their odds according to political wishful thinking, an odd thing to find in those hardest of hardest noses the Bookies but I do think they are given to bias on political matters.
Its really in the sample smoothing and also the decline in academic objectivity where we find that the polls are not as good as they can be. Again the other question will be turnout, the higher the more likely a Hung Parliament or even slim Labour Majority.
One last thing on Scotland, The Scottish Labour party was strongly Blairite in 2017 and they did nobble the campaign up there, Labour stands to do much better this time around in those marginals as the same sabotaged will not be allowed to happen again, if you search on the web you will find a few articles about what happened.
It is not a foregone conclusion that the SNP will improve their lot in Scotland, It is not a foregone conclusion that turnout will not exceed and indeed lag by a fair margin 2017.
The Coverage is lacklustre suggesting that a low turnout is being willed by the establishment.
And then there are events dear boy events. Starting with Trump is in town for 3 days, EU Military Unification and the Brino / Hammond suicide pill of the Deutsche bank derivative capsize. may all get on the public list of considerations.
Finally, you have yourself pointed out the importance of the WASPi vote, Waspis would be mad not to try and get Labour into power as they have promised to right the wrong and could do so very easily.
Brino is not Brexit it is worse than straight remain. Corbyn’s slated credible Brexit protecting Jobs is more credible than the Re warmed Surrender Act May MK 4. Holding Corbyn’s feet to the fire would be I think easier than Bojo’s should he win a majority on the basis of his risible ” Get Brino done” confection.
Going into the final act I am still not sure the song the fat Lady will be singing.
Meanwhile here’s the Woke They’s Burden.
Metropolitan Labour has for too long neglected its northern roots. The legacy of Blair, Miliband and Corbyn is going to hand Boris Johnson an overall majority of at least 30 seats
Yesterday evening was a time for getting my head down and double-checking some election maths in the light of three developments: yet more polls purporting to show a ‘Labour surge’, an insider regional consituency study of which I had sight yesterday around midday, and the Times article released at midnight last night GMT about a giant focus group among marginal seat voters.
There’s no point in sticking to an analysis which is being demolished by a combination of left-field events and new data. If there really is a potent Labour surge going on, then of course it must be reported: such reputation as The Slog enjoys is based on publication without fear or favour. The open mind is…
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https://youtu.be/B-MQ4VEvkuI Take up the Woke they's burden send forth thems best yo breed and non-binary our sprogs in dogma to serve our globalist creed to wait in heavy harness ungendered and beguiled uncritical, un-suspecting a brainwashed innocent child. Take up the woke they's burden googles censor to abide to veil the threat of terror … Continue reading The Woke They’s Burden. After Kipling and Harrison. Stalking Horses, Show Ponies and Grooms of Tina’s Stools.#TwoFingers2Brino @wiki_ballot #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20 #NHS #WASPI
An interesting Letter. I am Skeptical of any Binary reduction and noticeably the Good Imman has not mentioned Christians or Faith Groupings outside of Judaism, Islam. Not one for whataboutery, though. The Imans Letter is a strong one within its own terms and the Rabbi’s intervention was Polemical and beneath that position which he holds.
Lytton Crosby’s surrogates are very much in evidence in 2019, he recommends the Candidates to rise above the fray and to have others make personal attacks, of course, many candidates can not help themselves.
In 2017 I found the Labour Party position much more credible than 2019. The Coup attempts against Jeremy Corbyn and the constitution of his shadow cabinet suggest that the Blairite influence is not far from the helm. As I hold very similar views to the Vintage Corbyn on the EU, along with Tony Benn and currently well expressed by Eddie Dempsey and Paul Embury the Brexit position of 2019 is not credible to me. Jeremy Corbyn’s own position does actually make sense and I do think actually is one that the Public understands even through the mists of media outrage.
Memories these days are very short, certainly, commentary tends to have a very strict and selective preference for leaving almost everything form the past firmly memory-holed. Anyway here’s my take on Why a Jeremy Corbyn Brexit would be better than a Johnstone Brino,
although the Full 2017 Jexit would I think to be more of a vote winner. The European Union is a neoliberal project certainly since Maastricht when it went full federated Neo-Liberal, as such it seems that the best hope for democratic socialists and social democracy is that the UK leads the way out of the neoliberal European wilderness with a more socially based and inclusive model of political economy rather than seeing that inevitability lead by more authoritarian and so-called Hard Right groupings. I say so-called hard right as I do think Neo-Liberalism is Fascist in Nature, Pinochet was a Fascist ( does anyone argue against that?) Pinochet was the Chicago Boys Lab rat in Chile?
I have no idea how this Blog popped up in my feed today, it is obviously of far too high a quality by my own lights, to not be comprehensively shadowbanned, I wonder if Kitty, has seen a drop of in readers since last Autumn 2018? As ever when I stumble upon great commentary and analysis I fill my boots, read as much as possible and hang around. So Just to say Hi To Kitty and other readers. Not sure how many here were regular commenters from Sturdy Blog and Golem XIV back in the 2010-2013 period, WIll no doubt see as I work through some more articles. Greetings and Salutations from Sweden ( I live here) Cheers
Dear Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis
My name is Ajmal Masroor. I have been an Imam for almost 30 years and I write to you today as your brother in faith and humanity.
I proudly practice Islam in our multicultural and multi-faith country, without fear or prejudice, despite the rising levels of Islamophobia. I take a keen interest in politics and believe in actively influencing change, which is why I stood for Parliament twice – once in 2010 and again in 2018.
I believe people of faith must play an active role in all aspects of our society, including politics. As such, I welcome your letter to The Times, where you urge us to vote with our conscience. Both our Jewish and Islamic traditions place conscience at the core of our Godly life…
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