EXCLUSIVE: North-South divide to cripple Labour & give power to Tories. Or will it? Whose song will the fat lady sing? #TwoFingers2Brino @wiki_ballot #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20 #NHS #WASPI

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The spread in the polls is quite stark John, my preferred collation of all of them is Wikipedia, I have done some editing for political articles on Wikipedia in connection with Both David Malone a Shahrar Ali and also got stuck into some of the UKIP stuff too. Wikipedia editing is dominated by Lib Dems and Tories, and the Establishment line is very carefully husbanded, that said the polling Articles are great and cover all campaigns.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://twitter.com/GrubStreetJorno/status/1201832850141667328

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://twitter.com/GrubStreetJorno/status/1201832732084625408

9 days out the spread is so big as to suggest that the smoothing adopted by the various pollsters is still somewhat eccentric. The Purdha effect does get stronger the longer the campaign goes on, this effect is very strong as the sort of brainwashing the electorate undergoes outside of election purdah rules wears off fairly quickly and a very large number of voters ( The Swing Vote often do not make up their mind until the very last minute and with the Social Media Reach of Labours Campaigning engine everything is still to play for on the doorstep and on the handheld devices through social media.

The BBC poll of polls is 3 days behind and I think dragging its feet on purpose. The increase in the projected Younger vote based upon registrations is also skewed in telephone polls, I do not know if that is empirically supported but I saw the point made the other day and it seems a reasonable suggestion that telephone polling tends to get a more middle-aged to elderly response.

The Bookies odds are not much of a better clue either this time around, although some books make their odds according to political wishful thinking, an odd thing to find in those hardest of hardest noses the Bookies but I do think they are given to bias on political matters.

Its really in the sample smoothing and also the decline in academic objectivity where we find that the polls are not as good as they can be. Again the other question will be turnout, the higher the more likely a Hung Parliament or even slim Labour Majority.

One last thing on Scotland, The Scottish Labour party was strongly Blairite in 2017 and they did nobble the campaign up there, Labour stands to do much better this time around in those marginals as the same sabotaged will not be allowed to happen again, if you search on the web you will find a few articles about what happened.

It is not a foregone conclusion that the SNP will improve their lot in Scotland, It is not a foregone conclusion that turnout will not exceed and indeed lag by a fair margin 2017.
The Coverage is lacklustre suggesting that a low turnout is being willed by the establishment.

And then there are events dear boy events. Starting with Trump is in town for 3 days, EU Military Unification and the Brino / Hammond suicide pill of the Deutsche bank derivative capsize. may all get on the public list of considerations.

Finally, you have yourself pointed out the importance of the WASPi vote, Waspis would be mad not to try and get Labour into power as they have promised to right the wrong and could do so very easily.

Brino is not Brexit it is worse than straight remain. Corbyn’s slated credible Brexit protecting Jobs is more credible than the Re warmed Surrender Act May MK 4. Holding Corbyn’s feet to the fire would be I think easier than Bojo’s should he win a majority on the basis of his risible ” Get Brino done” confection.

Going into the final act I am still not sure the song the fat Lady will be singing.

Meanwhile here’s the Woke They’s Burden.

https://youtu.be/B-MQ4VEvkuI

The Slog

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Metropolitan Labour has for too long neglected its northern roots. The legacy of Blair, Miliband and Corbyn is going to hand Boris Johnson an overall majority of at least 30 seats

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Yesterday evening was a time for getting my head down and double-checking some election maths in the light of three developments: yet more polls purporting to show a ‘Labour surge’, an insider regional consituency study of which I had sight yesterday around midday, and the Times article released at midnight last night GMT about a giant focus group among marginal seat voters.

There’s no point in sticking to an analysis which is being demolished by a combination of left-field events and new data. If there really is a potent Labour surge going on, then of course it must be reported: such reputation as The Slog enjoys is based on publication without fear or favour. The open mind is…

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2 thoughts on “EXCLUSIVE: North-South divide to cripple Labour & give power to Tories. Or will it? Whose song will the fat lady sing? #TwoFingers2Brino @wiki_ballot #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20 #NHS #WASPI

  1. https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/latest-poll-grimsby-general-election-3564637

    I would not hang my hat on the Economist Grimsby Poll

    Survation interviewed 401 people aged over 18 in the town by telephone between November 14 and November 15. It coincided with Brexit party leader Nigel Farage visiting Grimsby to launch

    The Local MP has actually voted honourably.

    Ms Onn backed Remain in the EU referendum but she was one of the 19 Labour rebels to defy Jeremy Corbyn and vote for Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal at its second reading in the House of Commons late last month, saying she had a duty to respect the wishes of voters in Grimsby.

    She has spoken out against a second referendum in the past and has advocated a Labour-type Brexit in which there would be some form of customs union with the EU and close alignment with the single market.

    https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/great-grimsby-2019-general-election-3504657

    Given the Brino is not Brexit and will increasingly be exposed for the fraud that it is. And also as since the economist Poll Nigel Farage performed his Vault face I strongly suspect that This one will be closer than predicted.

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/great-grimsby-2/

    There seems to be a lot of clutching at straws.

    On Polling generally heres Boris Quoting Lyntton Crosby,

    The Quals always lead the Quants Mate.

    on that point, Jeremy Corbyn’s personality and fitfulness scores have improved in the purdah period as has been shown in a number of polls, of course, his numbers are still poor even after improvement, Boris does not fair a great deal better although he is much more effective than May. One suspects there are many more Banana Skins liable to find their way into Boris’s Path, with Corbyn, it’s much the same recycle and I must say rather hackneyed stuff. Corbyn has Scrubbed up rather better than Boris ever will, a Veteran pointing out Dandruff on Bojos Collar today and his untucked in shirts etc, the wreath placed upside down on the cenotaph etc.. Bojo is accident prone and when the Labour Surrogates go to work a lot of his skeletons will be in social media,

    Lord Ashcroft is more sceptical with his Focus Group in Scotland.
    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/11/does-he-want-to-be-pm-really-it-was-worse-than-prince-andrew-she-has-bagpipes-playing-in-her-head-all-the-time-my-election-focus-groups-in-scotland/

    I think about 3 days out we will have a better sense of the likely result, it will go down to the wire and The Tories are not as far ahead as they expected hence the Cummings Bat-Signal. I think Labour has a disciplined and structured approach to rolling out issues and still have EU Military unification up their sleeves, Farage was threatening to play that card which does blow Brino out of the water. A final push on Brino is not Brexit is a card I think Labour will play, its as obvious a card to play as the WASPI one was.

    Like

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