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via The 2018 and 2019 local election results suggested the Conservatives might struggle to get a majority at the next general election

I do think this is a very promising Indicator. The spread in the Opinion Polls seems so wide as if two different weighting factors are in use.

Heres my own bale string analysis with a bit of gaffer tape, every little helps it may not be pretty but it’s enthusiastic and well-meant. I suspect you chaps are on the money. The range of seats predicted by the polling extremes is 14 seat majority at the low end and 114 seats at the high end, the final vote, in my opinion, will break one way or the other on the day, depending on two things, Turnout as in 2017 will be key, is it the Brexit election and will disgruntled Brexit voters from 2016 turn out in force and Vote for “BRINO”, and secondly The don’t know’s, will they go for one side or the other or simply not bother? So my prediction is this, it will either be a Hung Parliament with Labour short by up to 30 or so seats or a Tory Majority in excess of 100 seats. And the telling factor will be whether or not the Norweigan Blue is in fact deceased.

Applying the same method again, the table below shows that both the 2018 and 2019 rounds of local elections point to a clear lead for the Conservatives in a subsequent general election. However, the forecast shares of the vote from both rounds do not suggest a big enough lead for the Conservatives to be sure of an overall majority. On the average of the two set of vote shares, coupled with a uniform change projection (also using last night’s YouGov MrP projected SNP and PC vote shares) points to a very narrow Conservative majority of 8.

Party Forecast share based on 2018 results Forecast share based on 2019 results Average forecast share Standard Error of share forecast Seats forecast
Con 40.8 36 38.4 4 329
Lab 33.8 29 31.4 4 231
LD 13.4 15.4 14.4 4 23
Other 12 19.6 15.8 4 65

The fact that a forecast based on local elections 7 and 19 months ago should be so close to last night’s YouGov MrP projection of Con 339, Lab 231, LD 15 is remarkable. There is just a difference of 10 seats for the Tories and none for Labour.

December 11, 2019

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David James, Baron James of Blackheath #EUMilitaryUnification @ukcolumn #BitChute — Wiki_Ballot (@wiki_ballot) December 11, 2019 Why did Theresa May allegedly turn down the EU offer of a ‘free-trade’ deal with Europe? Keith Young, studied History at Birbeck College, University of London Answered Nov 28, 2018 I am not sure she did. However, a free …

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My friend John Ward at the slog says this in last nights at the end of the day Slog. THE STATE NO LONGER UNDERSTANDS THE CITIZEN At the End of the Day And finally, Chris Curtis – political research manager at YouGov – says the company’s analyses show the Tories with a “comfortable majority”, and …

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