The 2018 and 2019 local election results suggested the Conservatives might struggle to get a majority at the next general election

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via The 2018 and 2019 local election results suggested the Conservatives might struggle to get a majority at the next general election

I do think this is a very promising Indicator. The spread in the Opinion Polls seems so wide as if two different weighting factors are in use.

https://notthegrubstreetjournal.com/2019/12/11/capons-turkeys-and-norweigan-blues-ge2019will-santa-finds-out-whose-naughty-and-nice-who-will-win-the-race-for-number-ten-grub-street-says-corbyn-wiki-ballot-says-johnson-who-believes-in-santa-a/

Heres my own bale string analysis with a bit of gaffer tape, every little helps it may not be pretty but it’s enthusiastic and well-meant. I suspect you chaps are on the money. The range of seats predicted by the polling extremes is 14 seat majority at the low end and 114 seats at the high end, the final vote, in my opinion, will break one way or the other on the day, depending on two things, Turnout as in 2017 will be key, is it the Brexit election and will disgruntled Brexit voters from 2016 turn out in force and Vote for “BRINO”, and secondly The don’t know’s, will they go for one side or the other or simply not bother? So my prediction is this, it will either be a Hung Parliament with Labour short by up to 30 or so seats or a Tory Majority in excess of 100 seats. And the telling factor will be whether or not the Norweigan Blue is in fact deceased.

https://electionsetc.com/2019/12/11/the-2018-and-2019-local-election-results-suggested-the-conservatives-might-struggle-to-get-a-majority-at-the-next-general-election/

Applying the same method again, the table below shows that both the 2018 and 2019 rounds of local elections point to a clear lead for the Conservatives in a subsequent general election. However, the forecast shares of the vote from both rounds do not suggest a big enough lead for the Conservatives to be sure of an overall majority. On the average of the two set of vote shares, coupled with a uniform change projection (also using last night’s YouGov MrP projected SNP and PC vote shares) points to a very narrow Conservative majority of 8.

Party Forecast share based on 2018 results Forecast share based on 2019 results Average forecast share Standard Error of share forecast Seats forecast
Con 40.8 36 38.4 4 329
Lab 33.8 29 31.4 4 231
LD 13.4 15.4 14.4 4 23
Other 12 19.6 15.8 4 65

The fact that a forecast based on local elections 7 and 19 months ago should be so close to last night’s YouGov MrP projection of Con 339, Lab 231, LD 15 is remarkable. There is just a difference of 10 seats for the Tories and none for Labour.

A conversation about a Tory seat in Kent. #GE2019 what has cut through and what will happen with the Vote?#TwoFingers2Brino @wiki_ballot #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20 @GloriaDePiero

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00:02
so Mr. anonymous hi just as a clapperboard
in the beginning, I’ll just
00:10
 say something
I’m online to an old
00:15
a friend in England and we’re now going to
00:17
discuss the general election in the UK
00:21
some basic impressions about what it’s
00:24
like on the ground so I’m going to ask
00:27
my friend.
Now tell me my anonymous
00:32
friend what is in the constituency you
00:37
live in number one  what do you
00:41
think is going to happen there
1. have you
00:42
got a Brexit candidate  today does any other
00:44
party stand okay and then wider
00:48
than that
2. within your  group of
00:51
contacts and friends what do you think
00:55
have been the standout issues that
00:59
people are talking about
well firstly my
01:03
constituency the long-standing MP had
01:11
been an MP for the 35 years stood down
01:15
about a year ago and so the Conservative
01:20
Party have a new candidate in my
01:24
constituency it has always been a staunch
01:28
conservative vote and I think that vote
01:33
will be weakened  the
01:35
conservative  will still hold
01:40
 the  seat
is there a Brexit Party Candidate standing?
yeah all
01:55
the parties are represented
01:57
including the brexit party?
yeah
02:00
 so it’s not held by
02:03
tories at the moment your seat then?
02:04
it is
well that means the brexit Party
02:08
candidate must be running as a
02:10
independent then?
02:12
I haven’t I haven’t looked at that so
02:16
you may be  right
02:20
okay and for the sake of anonymity you
02:23
don’t think you can tell us which
02:25
constituency it is without without us
02:28
guessing your identity?
well see it’s in
02:31
Kent
02:34
so yeah but the bigger piece of the
02:39
important thing to my mind more people
02:41
are focused upon is that you know you
02:45
know those issues  what’s
02:48
going on and I think general view people
02:51
I know and yep as we all appreciate the
02:56
people you know and talk to generally
03:01
have a similar mindset to what you have
03:05
was may not be reflection of the general
03:09
population then the my understanding of
03:16
the general idea of the general opinion
03:19
is that office almost the electric
03:26
campaigners have become the pant of mine
03:29
as I children in a school playground
03:34
taunting and accusing each other of all
03:38
their things and arguing amongst
03:40
themselves your Lord dramatic yesterday
03:44
you have birth dogs and Riley a JCB and
03:52
and all those things which may or may
03:56
know if there’s people but the main
03:58
issue was he had the parties you know /
04:03
– Lee consent for a dozen associate Paul
04:07
brexit kids it breaks it does dishes
04:10
that people are I think folks importers
04:13
say well what he can do but the NHS
04:17
yeah there just is in crisis
04:24
and you’re trying to convince us that
04:25
breakfast is the most important thing I
04:30
don’t think people generally are going
04:33
to be overly impressed with the the
04:39
general poster of trying to throw money
04:43
at voters to try and persuade dentists
04:48
both for a particular policy I think
04:50
people that are astute enough to say
04:53
well what we want is the basic issues of
04:56
health education and law and order to be
05:02
sorted out now you know that that that’s
05:12
my view does view of people I talk to
05:16
what I don’t know is what the majority
05:22
of voters think because people there are
05:29
an odd number people would that be too
05:32
disingenuous to devote your population
05:35
because virtue population you do I eat
05:38
you to say and you know and one of they
05:42
vote for if they vote for that that’s
05:47
the way it is but it has to be said that
05:52
there are a number of people who are
05:56
persuaded by dramatics and what we
05:59
define histrionics and and all those
06:03
sort of things after weather
06:07
I asked him what the actor might be a
06:11
few a few weeks ago me another more ago
06:16
I said you that it’s likely they’re
06:20
gonna have the Hun Parliament’s a few
06:25
weeks back two or more weeks back it
06:28
took to say you know the polls were
06:31
saying that
06:33
borislav circle says it would have a
06:35
pretty mister landslide
06:38
today rode past few days has been
06:42
narrowing according to polls and now
06:46
it’s a closed and say looking at and a
06:51
hug Parliament what we know is that the
06:54
the polls don’t always that generally
06:58
don’t gain right as to what the outcome
07:01
would be
07:02
I have not – no idea being only saying
07:10
that I mean anyone to put the haps on it
07:12
would be a bit of an idiot mind me yeah
07:15
whatever you know on whatever outcome
07:17
Mike can we just separate out what I
07:30
would call the real issues which you
07:32
listed as NHS health education and law
07:38
and order those three things and then
07:41
Briggs it now just starting off with
07:47
regs it what do you think is and the
07:56
general impression of Boris Johnson
07:59
slogan let’s get Briggs it done and get
08:04
Briggs it done is an anagram of being
08:06
extorted by the way it really is and
08:09
working to letter the letter anagram of
08:10
being exhausted get Briggs it done does
08:15
the revised Briggs it treaty which which
08:25
Boris Johnson is proposing does it get
08:28
Briggs it done is it is it Griffith well
08:31
my my view is that what we should have
08:37
is a clean break from the EU the treason
08:46
may the current proposal does not give
08:51
us a
08:51
clean break and it is full of compromise
08:56
and I fully expect that if the Tories
09:02
get in and they achieve what they call a
09:09
brexit we will be very happy victory you
09:16
so let’s get it done
09:22
means that let’s do let’s do it my way
09:26
which isn’t what many people would call
09:28
Briggs it well I don’t think that people
09:39
generally appreciate what the detail of
09:46
Boris Johnson’s approach would be I
09:49
think yeah all right I think they’re
09:56
aware for instance that the trade
10:01
negotiations the redacted trade
10:03
negotiations and then also the leat
10:08
Foreign Office report about the Irish
10:11
back top spot and the Irish border
10:13
whatever those two things and then the
10:17
final thing which no one knows about
10:19
this just isn’t spoken about is the EU
10:22
military unification bit what which Lord
10:26
James of Blackheath the point there
10:31
Roger that both you and I and also the
10:36
community you talked to are fairly well
10:40
informed about that these sort of things
10:42
they I think the vast majority of voters
10:45
I don’t know and I think their general
10:53
feed their intuitive feeling is well
10:56
whatever it is whatever brexit means to
10:59
do it
11:00
get over there
11:03
and I suppose what other issues right so
11:08
that’s when we cut to the set of real
11:11
questions which is the three you listed
11:14
which is health education and Law &
11:16
Order
11:17
now if the general feeling is Briggs it
11:24
or no Briggs it we want to vote for
11:27
someone that is going to sort out these
11:28
three things how how the people grade do
11:33
you think in fact that we’ve had almost
11:36
ten years of Conservative government
11:42
first the coalition then Teresa may now
11:45
Boris Johnson I think that’s why the I
11:49
think that’s why the the market between
11:51
labor and services is narrowing because
11:55
people are saying this um well yeah
11:57
we’ve had a conservative for ten years
12:00
you know all we seen is health education
12:07
and lower all to get worse more
12:12
persuades me to think there’s bigger
12:14
than another term that they would use it
12:17
different
12:18
well quite when they’re promising the
12:20
end austerity and I’m trying to paint
12:24
austerity as necessary because of
12:26
mismanagement by the last the the last
12:33
new labor Blair right government the
12:36
last layer I projects having been of
12:39
course Gordon Brown now you know a lot
12:45
about financial markets you know you are
12:49
from that city world
12:51
I’m not giving too much away from saying
12:54
there tell us Mike why was there no
13:00
money left in the Treasury the famous no
13:03
which keeps getting dragged up what were
13:06
the events that led up to the 2010
13:11
defeat of new labor the defeat of Gordon
13:15
Brown at the election
13:17
the global financial crisis what was it
13:22
you know what happened there never is
13:30
money in the Treasury then there is you
13:36
know a a pot of cash which is being
13:41
allocated is no we are in a debt
13:47
drooling the economy and we have an
13:52
economy where since 1986 and the finest
13:57
census act the banks that have allowed
14:01
have been allowed to move into Wild West
14:05
territory where they’re able to use
14:11
retail deposits to support investment
14:15
banking which is investor banking equals
14:21
casino banking where what is happening
14:26
is that all the sods going on is that
14:31
better be made and there are winners and
14:33
they’re losers within that financial
14:36
community and where there is one of the
14:42
2008 where things get completely out of
14:46
control and where the amount of debt
14:52
grows so high and we’re thanks they’re
14:58
thought to go bust what happens is that
15:02
the taxpayer the man on the street is
15:06
asked to step in to recapitalize those
15:11
banks and you know we’re serious it
15:15
greater where we’re getting very close
15:18
to that right now yeah and this front
15:26
lines probably going to be bigger than
15:27
last time
15:29
thank you the question
15:31
revolve around Deutsche Bank do they oh
15:35
yeah
15:38
Deutsche Bank is or need to detect at
15:41
the moment and the question would be
15:45
announced at the moment is you know how
15:52
would 30 Bank be able to keep their top
15:57
people when they’re unable to provide
16:02
Christmas bonuses for the German
16:08
Treasury or the EU ECB Treasury and
16:12
Deutsche Bank’s derivatives position
16:16
I’m not giving too much a way to say you
16:18
know all about banking accounting etc
16:20
etc what is a derivative and how big is
16:24
that problem well you know due to this
16:28
as a word that covers a wide spectrum
16:33
and it is a financial contract based
16:37
upon an underlying assets and the
16:40
underlying asset can be currency
16:44
commodities you know a range of things
16:49
but you shouldn’t weigh or the city
16:54
toward the planet or what
16:57
what it is is esoteric you know arguably
17:02
very strange contracts and contracts for
17:09
for betting as to how certain things
17:17
will occur in the future as to whether a
17:20
currency will go up or go down as to
17:23
whether a commodity where there’s grain
17:28
coffee bullion whatever how that will
17:32
move to meet its obligations under
17:41
derivative contract
17:45
affect the willingness of those same
17:49
banks to lend money overnight to each
17:53
other to balance the books with the
17:56
central banks and so when their trust
18:00
breaks down the whole system starts to
18:03
unravel yes yes that bar the attitude of
18:09
the central banks at the moment is that
18:11
I’m we taught about is in the absence of
18:14
lending between inter and intra Bank
18:17
between banks they turn to I used to be
18:22
called the central bank discount window
18:25
but more recently is called the the
18:29
Reaper market where the the the banks of
18:35
central banks are providing that stock
18:39
gap where the commercial banks will not
18:44
provide whom no funding let’s just
18:50
simplify this into a word picture right
18:53
mr. teacher-man banker he’s out at the
18:57
strip club down the ballet as we used to
18:59
call it and what he’s done is he’s gone
19:03
in and sort of says I’ll stand around
19:05
for everyone I mean he’s basically
19:08
offered to buy a drink for everybody all
19:11
the other bankers stood around are now
19:13
thinking is he going to be able to pay
19:15
for this round or are we gonna have to
19:17
get our credit cards down to pay for him
19:20
yeah and so in that situation perhaps
19:25
everybody starts getting a little bit
19:28
leery about getting their own rounding
19:30
yeah I’m looking for a way whole
19:39
financial and banking system operates on
19:44
confidence and it operates on the
19:48
confidence that the system asset ID will
19:52
continue to work as soon as you can
19:57
situation where
19:59
the participators and lose confidence
20:04
imagine what they’d expect happened
20:09
because it’s happened before they lock
20:14
down and they say we’ve got to try and
20:17
protect ourselves and when you don’t
20:22
have that free flow of funding then the
20:29
system starts who starts a tail and you
20:34
know was visit the financial standing of
20:46
all health education and law and order
20:49
and I would like is incredibly important
20:58
the fact effect is that the the
21:00
financial markets operate in a world of
21:04
their own and they operate with with
21:12
impunity so so can I just ask another
21:15
question then so the national debt has
21:18
doubled under the current conservative
21:22
administration that’s right isn’t it
21:26
yeah and that money almost exclusively
21:30
has gone into what you called casino
21:33
banking between banks at which they do
21:38
very nicely but meanwhile the real
21:43
economy the rest of us that are trying
21:44
to do real things make things sell
21:47
things provider service etc bank lending
21:51
to small and medium enterprises has
21:54
stagnated at best and gone down yeah so
22:00
so the idea no money being left in 2010
22:05
which was a joke note and not dissimilar
22:08
to this leaked phone call of the Health
22:11
Minister
22:12
joshing about you know Jeremy Corbyn
22:16
security risk whatever it comes back to
22:19
what you’re saying about the the
22:22
childishness of driving JCB’s Groupama
22:25
starting oh the financial markets are
22:34
out of control as you said that’s very
22:43
esoteric and and and the numbers are
22:46
huge and we all struggle to get our
22:50
heads round such large numbers but it
22:56
comes back to the point is the claimed
23:00
competence of a Conservative government
23:03
over a Labour government justified based
23:07
upon the experience of having a new
23:11
Labour government from 1997 to 2010 and
23:17
the 2010 to 2019 track record first
23:22
under Chancellor Osborne then under
23:27
Chancellor Hammond and now under
23:30
Chancellor was he called of the
23:35
extinction Bank Chancellor you know the
23:38
one
23:38
Saji jabbing sad as they call him right
23:43
he was a Deutsche Bank banker and we
23:45
just felt that Deutsche Bank he’s the
23:47
Chancellor of Exchequer and and he is
23:50
saying that he is more competent and his
23:53
three his two predecessors were indeed
23:57
more competent than Gordon Brown now
23:59
whatever we think of Gordon Brown I
24:01
don’t like him personally but I I think
24:05
it’s a stretch to say that those three
24:07
are have been indeed will be more
24:12
competent than Gordon Brown what they’ve
24:14
had been would you say that’s bad I
24:16
don’t I don’t take the view that simply
24:20
because one can
24:25
for Tulsa detector understand the
24:29
financial system better than nether
24:31
means that there will be any posted
24:33
change right okay except that point but
24:37
in terms of let’s have a Margaret
24:39
Thatcher
24:41
you know this fantasy idea that the the
24:45
national economy is the same as a
24:47
household budget you know it is if I may
25:01
say so nestling literal analysis and
25:04
what we go look at is the majority of
25:08
voters don’t have the sort of
25:11
understanding the UI and others about
25:13
community have about the financial
25:16
system what they’re faced with at the
25:18
moment and I think it is straight
25:21
between the Conservatives and a labor is
25:24
the truth you know who is the least
25:30
devil among knows two groups you know if
25:36
there was a similar standing yeah
25:41
somebody else who spelled out more
25:44
lastly what is going on that I know
25:48
they’ll be vote for a concept or labor
25:51
but they faced that choice is it going
25:54
to be laboring we could be conserved it
25:56
and regardless of who it is past bracket
26:03
Ellis we don’t know what’s gonna
26:05
actually happen
26:07
yeah they making promises now that’s
26:10
important to do they keep promises to
26:13
get elected when they collect it they
26:17
hardly ever do this we’re all no
26:18
promises so as to what the outcome will
26:22
be who knows and if we are correct in
26:26
thinking that a financial correction or
26:31
financial correction ear correction is
26:34
imminent then that will be the perfect
26:37
excuse don’t do anything right
26:39
yeah I accept that so on this question I
26:44
I don’t we can really talk about Briggs
26:47
it this general election and the you
26:50
know these three really important things
26:52
that you outlined health education and
26:58
law or an order and by Chuck in defense
27:03
you can’t really talk about those things
27:06
without talking about NATO for defense
27:10
but also with the with what’s going to
27:13
happen in 2020 we’ve Donald Trump and
27:18
that’s an interim this country between
27:21
you and me you know tomorrow the vast
27:38
majority of the population who will be
27:43
voted tomorrow we don’t get extreme case
27:47
someone is looking I think as well
27:51
because the BBC aren’t gonna do it the
27:54
week you know maybe we could discuss it
27:57
and you can explain
27:59
why’s that might be important what what
28:02
why it’s like why before the break zero
28:06
President Obama was so keen that the
28:10
Britain should vote to remain in the EU
28:11
where as Donald Trump is equally keen
28:16
that that that Britain doesn’t remain in
28:22
the EU what’s all that about
28:23
but the simple answer that is that all
28:27
politicians all all markets like AB
28:32
stability and what I see stability is to
28:36
maintain the current system and so you
28:42
know ideas of getting added brexit
28:46
having change creates uncertainty
28:51
and politicians of markets don’t like
28:55
that right look Mike we’re coming up to
28:58
about half an hour so I’m just going to
29:01
close with one just just one quick
29:04
question the election result Friday
29:09
morning
29:10
are we waking up to a hung parliament or
29:14
a Boris Johnson government what you’ve
29:19
got feeling well my best guess at 11:00
29:23
at 10:35 today a.m. UK is that we would
29:28
end up the hung parliament okay I’m with
29:32
you on that one that’s that that what my
29:35
gut tells me wouldn’t bet the house on
29:37
it but I think you’ll break one way or
29:40
the other I hope it breaks that way too
29:44
to be honest I think whatever there come
29:57
might be bit too conservative labor or
30:01
hung parliament what we will see you
30:05
next neck here is a consideration of the
30:08
buggers metal that we see our last 10
30:12
years playing out a much longer much
30:17
longer time line and this is just
30:20
stopping off between yes I’ll stop
30:23
recording here Mike thanks for that and
30:24
we’ll we’ll carry on our chat

Lets Look at Norway. Brino is a deceased Norweigan Blue. Yet Corbyns sit on the fence “Credible leave Option”, points to a revival of the dead Norwegian Parrot. #EUMilitaryUnion and the Norwegian Option? #TwoFingers2Brino #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20 @GloriaDePiero

Keith Young
Keith Young, studied History at Birbeck College, University of London
At the start of negotiations, the objective was a bespoke free trade agreement. Ideally it would be less tied into Europe than a Norway deal (the soft Brexit end of the spectrum) but giving more access than a Canada deal (the hard end of the spectrum).

Norway and the European Union

Norway voted on entry to the European Union (EU) in 1974 and 1994, rejecting membership both times. Today a majority remains opposed to EU membership.

The relationship between NATO and the EU is a matter of major importance for Norway. Norway enjoys close collaboration with the EU in many fields including that of defence and security policy. Norway participates in the EU’s rapid response forces. The Norwegian frigate Fridtjof Nansen is taking part in the EU’s operation ATALANTA in the Gulf of Aden. Norway is closely associated with the European Defence Agency (EDA) which works for a more closely integrated market in Europe for defence materiel.

In the field of security policy the EU has become a more important actor than it has been in the past. The Lisbon Treaty, which came into force a month ago, is likely to strengthen this development. This is something in which Norway takes an active interest. It is now important that there should be in place effective arrangements for collaboration between NATO and the EU. Both operationally in order to avoid duplication in the development of military capabilities and financially in order to avoid the squandering of resources.

In the 1980s the EU underwent a process of vitalisation which resulted in among other things to the decision to establish an internal market. With the changes of regime in Eastern Europe and the re-unification of Germany in 1989-90, the integration process was given an extra push. The changed framework conditions inevitably led to fresh interest in the question of Norwegian participation in the European integration process.

In order to meet the challenge involved in the introduction of the internal market, Norway and the other EFTA members (except Switzerland) reached an agreement with the EU in 1992 on the establishment of the European Economic Area (EEA). Through this agreement a number of important principles enshrined in the EU treaty were made applicable to the EEA area in its entirety. This applied especially to the requirements concerning the internal market, i.e. the body of rules governing the free exchange of goods and the free movement of persons, capital and services. In November 1992 the Norwegian government decided to take another step forward. Once again the government applied for Norwegian membership of the EU: once again the Norwegian people said “no”. In a referendum held in November 1994, 52.2% of the votes cast were against Norwegian membership of the EU. After this Norway again fell back on the EEA agreement.

The EU’s gradual implementation of the economic and monetary union and the introduction of the euro in 1999 gave European integration a more binding character. The EU stands as a central European forum for cooperation and plans for a further expansion of the Union to include Central and Eastern Europe will further strengthen this development. At the same time Norway is becoming increasingly dependent on trade with the EU. Today, more than 75% of Norwegian exports go to the EU countries. The EFTA pillar within the EEA is, however, both shaky and fragile after EFTA shrunk in 1995 to embrace only three small countries, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. EFTA’s, and thereby Norway’s possibility of influencing EU developments is slight.

The EU members’ common foreign and security policy, (CFSP) and co-operation on legal and police matters is not covered by the terms of the EEA agreement. Norway’s potential to influence developments is therefore relatively limited. In connection with the Schengen co-operation Norway has admittedly negotiated an agreement. In other sectors Norway attempts to safeguard its interests through an ongoing exchange of information and presentation of its viewpoints and interests through various channels of contact with the EU. An active bilateral diplomacy towards the individual EU countries is also important this context.

Proposal for Defence Budget 2020:

The Norwegian Government increase the defence budget by more than 2 billion Norwegian kroner

– The security situation has deteriorated. That is why this Government has increased its defence budgets every single year since we took office, and we will continue to strengthen the defence in the years to come, says Minister of Defence Frank Bakke-Jensen.

Zoom in on imageMinister of Defence Frank Bakke-Jensen.
Minister of Defence Frank Bakke-Jensen. Credit: Norwegian Armed Forces

The Government proposes to increase the defence budget by more than 2 billion Norwegian kroner. The defense budget for 2020 will thus amount to almost 61 billion Norwegian kroner. We are now entering the last year of the current long-term plan. With the government’s proposal, the goals in the long-term plan have been fulfilled.

The Norwegian Army’s share of the budget is about 6 billion Norwegian kroner. This includes funding for the introduction of the new short range air defence into service. More ammunition for training and exercises will be procured, and spare parts for the Army’s main battle tanks will be procured to maintain the operational capacity until new main battle tanks are acquired. The budget allows for the strengthening of the Finnmark Land Command with the continued establishment of a ranger company at the Garrison in Sør-Varanger and a new manoeuvre element at the Garrison in Porsanger. The Government will continue the high level of training and exercises in the Home Guard.

The Norwegian Navy’s share of the budget, including the Coast Guard, is about 5.7 billion Norwegian kroner. The main priorities for 2020 are increased manning for frigates and the Coast Guard and a continued high level of activity.

The Norwegian Air Force’s share of the budget, including the Rescue Helicopter Service, is about 6.9 billion Norwegian kroner. In 2020, introduction into service of the F-35 fighter aircraft and the new NH90 helicopters, and increased activity in air defence units will continue. In addition, preparation for the transition to and reception of new P-8 maritime patrol aircraft from 2022 will continue.

The Government proposes to allocate 105 million Norwegian kroner for temporary measures to reduce the negative effect on operations after the loss of the frigate KNM Helge Ingstad. This includes increased manning and number of days at sea for the logistics vessel KNM Maud and the procurement of lost spare parts.

– The investments produces results. The Chief of Defence reports an increase in activity and that the development is moving in the right direction, says Minister of Defence Frank Bakke-Jensen.

With the government’s defence budget proposal, including adjustments in reporting defence spending to NATO, the preliminary forecast on defence spending’s share of GDP is about 1.8 percent in 2020.

Norway–European Union relations

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EU-Norwegian relations
Map indicating locations of European Union and Norway

EU

Norway

The Kingdom of Norway is not a member state of the European Union (EU). It is associated with the Union through its membership in agreements in the European Economic Area (EEA) established in 1994, and by virtue of being a founding member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) which was founded in 1960, one of the two historically dominant western European trade blocs. Norway had considered joining the European Community and the European Union twice, but opted to decline following referenda in 1972 and 1994.

Norwegian political parties’ positions[edit]

Currently, parties supporting or opposing EU membership are to be found in both right-wing and left-wing coalitions: as a result, most governments contain pro- and anti-EU elements. To avoid further debates concerning EU membership, anti-EU parties usually require “suicide paragraphs” in government-coalition agreements, meaning that if some party in the coalition officially begins a new debate on EU, the government will fall. This has been true for both the previous centre-right Bondevik government and the centre-left Stoltenberg government. The following table shows the different parliamentary parties’ stance on EU-membership, sorted by their vote share in the latest parliamentary election (2017):

Norwegian political parties’ positions, Spring 2019[17]
Party For/against EU
(non-member)
For/against EEA
(member)
Main argument as stated on party websites
Labour Party For For Cooperation, influence in EU decisions.[18]
Conservative Party For For Peace, stability, solidarity, influence.[19]
Progress Party Against For[a] Bureaucracy, regulations; renegotiate EEA.[20][21]
Centre Party Against Against Sovereignty; withdraw EEA.[22]
Socialist Left Party Against Against Worker’s rights, undemocratic; withdraw EEA.[23]
Liberal Party For For Trade, diversity, peace, democracy.[24]
Christian Democratic Party Against For EEA sufficient.[25]
Green Party Neutral For No position.[26]
Red Party Against Against Social dumping, undemocratic; withdraw EEA.[27]
  1. ^ If the terms of the agreement are renegotiated.[clarification needed]

Opinion polling[edit]

On average, Norwegian voters are strongly opposed to Norwegian membership in the European Union. Polling averaged over a 10-year period shows around 70% of Norwegians voters are opposed to full EU membership.

According to a 2010 poll, the majority of the voters of every Norwegian party were against EU membership.[28]

Date Conductor Yes No
2003-09[29] Sentio 37% 38%
2005-06[30] Sentio 36% 51%
2006-05[31] Response 45% 55%
2006-09[31] Response 45% 55%
2006-11[31] Response 41% 59%
2007-04[31] Response 45% 55%
2007-11[31] Response 42% 58%
2008-05[31] Response 40% 60%
2008-12[32] Sentio 37.5% 50.7%
2009-01[32] Sentio 32.5% 52.8%
2009-02[33] Sentio 35.1% 54.7%
2009-03[34] Sentio 33% 54.9%
2009-04[35] Sentio 34.9% 53.3%
2009-05[36] Response 42% 58%
2009-05[37] Norstat 38.6% 49%
2009-06[37] Norstat 40.6% 50.3%
2009-09[38] Sentio 35% 52.2%
2009-10[39] Sentio 41.4% 45.6%
2009-11[40] Sentio 42% 58%
2010-02[41] Sentio 33% 53.4%
2010-04[42] Sentio 36.3% 50.1%
2010-05[43] Norstat 32.3% 55%
2010-05[44] Sentio 30.3% 56.9%
2010-05[45] Response 26% 62%
2010-07[46] Sentio 25.3% 66.1%
2010-07[47] Norstat 25% 66%
2010-08[48] Sentio 26% 62%
2010-09[49] Sentio 24.9% 64.9%
2011-01[50] Sentio 22.5% 65.9%
2011-05[51] Response 29% 71%
2011-07[52] Sentio 17.1% 73.4%
2011-07[52] Sentio 20.1% 68.8%
2011-10[53] Sentio 18.6% 70.8%
2011-10[54] Synovate 12% 72%
2012-07[55] Sentio 17.2% 74.8%
2013-01[56] Sentio 18.7% 70.8%
2014-08[57] Sentio 17.8% 70.5%
2015-12[58] Sentio 18.1% 72.0%
2016-06[59] Sentio 19.6% 70.9%
2016-08[60] Ipsos MMI 16% 66%
2018-06[61] Sentio 22% 67%

Further reading[edit]

See also[edit]

Norway’s Minister of Foreign Affairs on Brexit, Trade

1,038 views
4 May 2018

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experts in geophysics hydrography
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geology and other disciplines in the
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past the inhospitable conditions made
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the legal disputes meaningless

Capons, Turkeys and Norwegian Blues. #GE2019 Will Santa finds out whose naughty and nice. Who Will win the race for number Ten. Grub Street Says Corbyn, Wiki Ballot says, Johnson who believes in Santa and Who Believes in Dead Parrots?#TwoFingers2Brino #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20 @GloriaDePiero

download (4)
How far people will have cottoned on to Borisś Oven Ready Turkey, not being BREXIT but a rather ragged old rubber chicken of a bad and corny joke BRINO, we will see. As there is not actually a Brexit on the Table from Boris, unless, it is to be believed, he has planned all along to go Full WTO in December 2020. I do not think Boris has the Balls to do that in Brexit Turkey terms he is, in fact, a Capon.Capons_in_Hainan_-_03.jpgIn the event, it has turned out that for WTO Brexit there is no credible vote available that will make a “Full English Brexit” possible. The only real chance of something approaching Brexit is not Boris’s Caponed Turkey but actually, Chairman Corbyn’s Turkey Perched on a fence, the so-called “Credible option protecting Jobs and supply chain Brexit”. Not so much a Norweigan Blue as a Norweigan Turkey, I grant you, but it is the Norway option and actually whilst the Establishment might think the Tory WTO Blue is deceased and they can breathe a sigh of relief, Mr Corbyn might yet deliver a credible leave option on a Ballot if he is able to form a minority government or if the British electorate and the WASPI women take their courage in both hands and give him a Majority.

What Norway tells us about The Tories Claims to fealty over the Economy?

At Dyce near Aberdeen, Her Majesty the Queen presses the button that sends the first North Sea Oil flowing into the Grangemouth Refinery. It marks the fruition of years of research, technology, hard work and grim determination. From the Forties Field by under sea pipeline, a marvel itself in engineering, the oil comes ashore at Cruden Bay. It travels then by underground pipes to the BP Refinery at Grangemouth. To the people of Aberdeen oil has already meant a change in their life style, could it also be the turning point in Britain’s economy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7_tYCmCmk4

Did the U.K. Miss Out on £400 Billion Worth of Oil Revenue?

5 OCTOBER 2015
he U.K. and Norway oil and gas sectors provide an ideal comparison through which to compare the outcomes from different approaches to oil sector governance. The two countries have equivalent geology and a similar resource base – the North Sea Basin is effectively split down the middle between them.[1] The U.K. and Norway both began offshore exploration and production in the mid-1960s with the first oil discoveries made in 1969. Since then, both countries have produced similar amounts of hydrocarbons: the U.K. has produced 42.8 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and Norway 40 billion boe (figure 1).Figure 1. U.K. and Norway oil and gas production since 1971?Source: BP Statistical Review 2014 and Norway government data (www.norskpetroleum.no)Whilst the geology and resource base in each country is similar, the two countries have taken very different approaches to governance of the sector. Since 1986 the U.K. government has had effectively no direct equity participation in the North Sea and has had a fully private upstream sector, with taxation as the only channel of government revenues from hydrocarbons.[2]Norway has taken a different approach, with over 50 percent of production coming through Statoil (of which the state owns a majority) and state ownership of assets via the State Direct Financial Interest (SDFI), held through Petoro (wholly owned by the state). Norway generated more than double the revenue the U.K. did from each barrel it produced. The purpose of this article is not to debate whether the current U.K. tax regime is optimal today, but rather examine why the Norwegian approach to oil governance in the past appears to have generated so much more revenue. For other countries seeking to extract more from their resources this case study suggests a valuable lesson: given political stability and competent institutions, a state can have both a relatively high tax burden on its industry and direct ownership of assets, and deliver more revenue for its citizens and still attract investment.

The great Unanswered question mainly because it has simply not been asked , is this.

Did Theresa May decline a Norway Option for the sake of Continuing EU Military Unification? I think the answer to that is yes.

https://www.ukcolumn.org/series/eu-military-unification

EU Military Unification

Military Unification has been on the European Union’s policy agenda for decades. In the past twelve months, the pressure to complete the task has accelerated the process, particularly since the Bratislava Summit of September 2016.

There, the 27 leaders of the EU decided to “give a new impetus” to European external security and defence.

They set as a target the December 2016 European Council to formalise an implementation plan.

To quote one commentator, “European Union Defence plans are associated with the eventual formation of a European Federal State. Under the current system of unaccountable governance, this means they will be run by an unelected oligarchy. A nation-state that contracts out its defence has ceased to be.”

 

Capons, Turkeys and Norwegian Blues. #GE2019 Will Santa finds out whose naughty and nice. Who Will win the race for number Ten. Grub Street Says Corbyn, Wiki Ballot says, Johnson who believes in Santa and Who Believes in Dead Parrots?#TwoFingers2Brino #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20 @GloriaDePiero

download (4)
My friend John Ward at the slog says this in last nights at the end of the day Slog.

THE STATE NO LONGER UNDERSTANDS THE CITIZEN

At the End of the Day

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/12/10/at-the-end-of-the-day-920/

And finally, Chris Curtis – political research manager at YouGov – says the company’s analyses show the Tories with a “comfortable majority”, and seats coming their way at the expense of Labour in the North and Midlands. Said Curtis:

“As expected, the key thing deciding the extent to which each of these seats is moving against Labour is how that seat voted in the European Union referendum…..In the seats that voted most strongly to Leave in 2016 (60% or more in favour of Brexit), the swing to the Conservatives is over 6 per cent.”

This is completely in line with the feedback I’ve been getting.

I stick with my long-held estimate: the Tories will get an overall majority somewhere between thirty and ninety seats.

I am not so convinced a 30 to ninety majority is going to be gifted to the Naughty School Boy, Boris de Spaffel Legend in da own trousers Johnson. He claimed that his Naughtiest Moment had been riding a bicycle on the pavement, Mrs May’s was running in a field of wheat. Boris has also in the “Ill Child on Coats” scandal provided a, “there are lots of complicated reasons for food banks”, moment, that may well have cut through as much as May Bots cringeworthy comment on Marr.

Election Campaigns are like Santa, they are going to find out whose been naughty or nice

Selection_156.jpg

The Polls are very widely drawn, averaging out such a broad spread is actually not at all likely to improve one’s chances of calling the result. That the result will be somewhere in the middle of two wrong extremes is possible but one of only 5 possibilities. That is The Low Group may be correct and an average of Low grouped polls would be a sample appropriate for smoothing. The High Group may be correct and again smoothing of this group would then perhaps improve accuracy the average of low and high together will produce the middle group and then there is the possibility that the low group is right in the right direction but well short of the mark and on the other side that the High Group is in the right direction but again well short of the mark.

Selection_157.jpg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

Bearing mind what I just said about possible Groups the latest polls for samples with some respondents being questioned in December are in the table above there is a range of leads from  6% to 15% for the Blue team.

This is what would happen in Parliament if it is correct.

Opinium/The Observer 4–6 Dec GB 2,002 46% 31% 13% 4% 0% 2% 3% – – 1% 15%
Selection_158.jpg

Or if the latest ICM/Reuters poll is correct.

ICM Research/Reuters 6–9 Dec GB 2,011 42% 36% 12% 3% 0% 2% 3% 0% – 1% 6%

Selection_159.jpg

The range of seats predicted by the polling extremes is 14 seat majority at the low end and 114 seats at the high end, the final vote, in my opinion, will break one way or the other on the day, depending on two things, Turnout as in 2017 will be key, is it the Brexit election and will disgruntled Brexit voters from 2016 turn out in force and Vote for “BRINO”, and secondly The don’t know’s, will they go for one side or the other or simply not bother?

How far people will have cottoned on to Borisś Oven Ready Turkey, not being BREXIT but a rather ragged old rubber chicken of a bad and corny joke BRINO, we will see. As there is not actually a Brexit on the Table from Boris, unless, it is to be believed, he has planned all along to go Full WTO in December 2020. I do not think Boris has the Balls to do that in Brexit Turkey terms he is, in fact, a Capon.

Capons_in_Hainan_-_03.jpg

In the event, it has turned out that for WTO Brexit there is no credible vote available that will make a “Full English Brexit” possible. The only real chance of something approaching Brexit is not Boris’s Caponed Turkey but actually, Chairman Corbyn’s Turkey Perched on a fence, the so-called “Credible option protecting Jobs and supply chain Brexit”. Not so much a Norweigan Blue as a Norweigan Turkey, I grant you, but it is the Norway option and actually whilst the Establishment might think the Tory WTO Blue is deceased and they can breathe a sigh of relief, Mr Corbyn might yet deliver a credible leave option on a Ballot if he is able to form a minority government or if the British electorate and the WASPI women take their courage in both hands and give him a Majority.

We do have a model for the scenario which seems to be playing out that is an electorate that does not have to think about Brexit Party or UKIP, both of whom Mr Farage by his own Hubris and incompetence has made an irrelevance, it is Farage actually, who has betrayed the Brexit vote more than anyone else, Followed By Mrs May’s, Tories and of course Boris Johnson. Boris has been trying to claim none of the Austerity and none of the Brexit subterfuge was done on his watch, he did resign as Foreign Secretary after Chequers but his real Brexit Credentials are found in his own Father a staunch EU Federalist and Boris, Miltary Union and All, is frankly a Poseur, an imposter and as we all know an inveterate liar.

So here’s the scores on the doors for back in February, remember none of the “Corbyn the terrible” memes has changed and the Purdha period allows the public to take a look at the man himself and he’s all right as a bloke, he’s actually not that odd when you consider he is a professional politician, after all. Boris is altogether odder and that he gets painted as a Toff of the people beggars belief.

Selection_160.jpg

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/uk-parliament?election=2017&CON=37&LAB=40&LD=7&UKIP=0&GRN=4&BREX=2#UnitedKingdom

Selection_161

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So my prediction is this, it will either be a Hung Parliament with Labour short by up to 30 or so seats or a Tory Majority in excess of 100 seats. And the telling factor will be whether or not the Norweigan Blue is in fact deceased.

Survation and Survey Monkey Called it in 2015. (Too close to Call) Turnout Is Everything.

TURN OUT IS KEY. ELECTION 2017. HIGH TURNOUT AND LABOUR WINS!!! #VOTELABOUR #DRIVEAFREINDTOTHEPOLLINGPLACE

Opinion polling for the United Kingdom general election, 2015

Opinion polling for the United Kingdom general election, 2017

TURN OUT IS KEY. ELECTION 2017. HIGH TURNOUT AND LABOUR WINS!!! #VOTELABOUR #DRIVEAFREINDTOTHEPOLLINGPLACE

Link To Lord Ashcroft Polling.

This Graph Explains the Importance of Turnout to the outcome of the Election Tomorrow.

If Turnout is the 72.2% of the Brexit Referendum last year you can see that the Light Blue line shows That the middle third of the probability distribution curve on Ashcroft’s polling numbers has a Tory Majority of between 20 and 60 seats.
The 2015 turnout was 66.1 % overall. around the same as 1997 general election less than the 77% for the 92 vote. Historically the 1950 and 51 elections had over 80% turnouts.

1.Main points

The total number of UK parliamentary electors in 2015 was 44,722,000, a fall of 1.3% from 2014.
The total number of UK local government electors in 2015 was 46,204,700, a fall of 1.3% from 2014.
Between 2014 and 2015, the total number of both parliamentary and local government electors fell in England, Wales and Scotland, but increased in Northern Ireland.
The number of parliamentary electors fell in all regions of England between 2014 and 2015. The largest decrease (-1.6%) was in the West Midlands, the smallest in the East Midlands (-0.1%).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of local government electors fell in all regions of England, apart from the East Midlands which saw an increase of 0.02%. The largest decreases were in London and the South East, both of which decreased by 1.6%.
The 2015 electoral statistics represent the first full registers following completion of the transition to Individual Electoral Registration (IER) introduced in England, Wales and Scotland in 2014.
Electoral statistics are used by Boundary Commissions, the Electoral Commission and central government to help with the improvement of electoral policies and for statutory reviews of parliamentary constituency boundaries.

For this General Election, the Pollsters are using a number of different techniques to second guess actual declared voting intention with the Results for 2015 where they were somewhat bamboozled. The thing with Assigning probabilities and making educated guesses is that assumptions however screened for bias they may be are still predictions based upon a best guess.What we can say for certain is that the Higher the turnout than the higher the likelihood of other parties doing better than the conservatives.

The Tories were notable amongst all the parties on Social media in that they did not encourage voters, particularly the younger newly minted voters to Register, Lord Ashcroft perhaps told them something, The Same thing I am telling you now. If Turnout gets into the mid 70% range There is every chance of a Historic even Heroic electoral upset.

If the Turnout hits or Exceeds the record Brexit referendum voting level, Mrs May will be ordering a removal van, IS that a Boy Job or a Girl Job I wonder?

Exegesis Hermeneutics Flux Capacitor of Truthiness