A conversation about a Tory seat in Kent. #GE2019 what has cut through and what will happen with the Vote?#TwoFingers2Brino @wiki_ballot #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20 @GloriaDePiero

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00:02
so Mr. anonymous hi just as a clapperboard
in the beginning, I’ll just
00:10
 say something
I’m online to an old
00:15
a friend in England and we’re now going to
00:17
discuss the general election in the UK
00:21
some basic impressions about what it’s
00:24
like on the ground so I’m going to ask
00:27
my friend.
Now tell me my anonymous
00:32
friend what is in the constituency you
00:37
live in number one  what do you
00:41
think is going to happen there
1. have you
00:42
got a Brexit candidate  today does any other
00:44
party stand okay and then wider
00:48
than that
2. within your  group of
00:51
contacts and friends what do you think
00:55
have been the standout issues that
00:59
people are talking about
well firstly my
01:03
constituency the long-standing MP had
01:11
been an MP for the 35 years stood down
01:15
about a year ago and so the Conservative
01:20
Party have a new candidate in my
01:24
constituency it has always been a staunch
01:28
conservative vote and I think that vote
01:33
will be weakened  the
01:35
conservative  will still hold
01:40
 the  seat
is there a Brexit Party Candidate standing?
yeah all
01:55
the parties are represented
01:57
including the brexit party?
yeah
02:00
 so it’s not held by
02:03
tories at the moment your seat then?
02:04
it is
well that means the brexit Party
02:08
candidate must be running as a
02:10
independent then?
02:12
I haven’t I haven’t looked at that so
02:16
you may be  right
02:20
okay and for the sake of anonymity you
02:23
don’t think you can tell us which
02:25
constituency it is without without us
02:28
guessing your identity?
well see it’s in
02:31
Kent
02:34
so yeah but the bigger piece of the
02:39
important thing to my mind more people
02:41
are focused upon is that you know you
02:45
know those issues  what’s
02:48
going on and I think general view people
02:51
I know and yep as we all appreciate the
02:56
people you know and talk to generally
03:01
have a similar mindset to what you have
03:05
was may not be reflection of the general
03:09
population then the my understanding of
03:16
the general idea of the general opinion
03:19
is that office almost the electric
03:26
campaigners have become the pant of mine
03:29
as I children in a school playground
03:34
taunting and accusing each other of all
03:38
their things and arguing amongst
03:40
themselves your Lord dramatic yesterday
03:44
you have birth dogs and Riley a JCB and
03:52
and all those things which may or may
03:56
know if there’s people but the main
03:58
issue was he had the parties you know /
04:03
– Lee consent for a dozen associate Paul
04:07
brexit kids it breaks it does dishes
04:10
that people are I think folks importers
04:13
say well what he can do but the NHS
04:17
yeah there just is in crisis
04:24
and you’re trying to convince us that
04:25
breakfast is the most important thing I
04:30
don’t think people generally are going
04:33
to be overly impressed with the the
04:39
general poster of trying to throw money
04:43
at voters to try and persuade dentists
04:48
both for a particular policy I think
04:50
people that are astute enough to say
04:53
well what we want is the basic issues of
04:56
health education and law and order to be
05:02
sorted out now you know that that that’s
05:12
my view does view of people I talk to
05:16
what I don’t know is what the majority
05:22
of voters think because people there are
05:29
an odd number people would that be too
05:32
disingenuous to devote your population
05:35
because virtue population you do I eat
05:38
you to say and you know and one of they
05:42
vote for if they vote for that that’s
05:47
the way it is but it has to be said that
05:52
there are a number of people who are
05:56
persuaded by dramatics and what we
05:59
define histrionics and and all those
06:03
sort of things after weather
06:07
I asked him what the actor might be a
06:11
few a few weeks ago me another more ago
06:16
I said you that it’s likely they’re
06:20
gonna have the Hun Parliament’s a few
06:25
weeks back two or more weeks back it
06:28
took to say you know the polls were
06:31
saying that
06:33
borislav circle says it would have a
06:35
pretty mister landslide
06:38
today rode past few days has been
06:42
narrowing according to polls and now
06:46
it’s a closed and say looking at and a
06:51
hug Parliament what we know is that the
06:54
the polls don’t always that generally
06:58
don’t gain right as to what the outcome
07:01
would be
07:02
I have not – no idea being only saying
07:10
that I mean anyone to put the haps on it
07:12
would be a bit of an idiot mind me yeah
07:15
whatever you know on whatever outcome
07:17
Mike can we just separate out what I
07:30
would call the real issues which you
07:32
listed as NHS health education and law
07:38
and order those three things and then
07:41
Briggs it now just starting off with
07:47
regs it what do you think is and the
07:56
general impression of Boris Johnson
07:59
slogan let’s get Briggs it done and get
08:04
Briggs it done is an anagram of being
08:06
extorted by the way it really is and
08:09
working to letter the letter anagram of
08:10
being exhausted get Briggs it done does
08:15
the revised Briggs it treaty which which
08:25
Boris Johnson is proposing does it get
08:28
Briggs it done is it is it Griffith well
08:31
my my view is that what we should have
08:37
is a clean break from the EU the treason
08:46
may the current proposal does not give
08:51
us a
08:51
clean break and it is full of compromise
08:56
and I fully expect that if the Tories
09:02
get in and they achieve what they call a
09:09
brexit we will be very happy victory you
09:16
so let’s get it done
09:22
means that let’s do let’s do it my way
09:26
which isn’t what many people would call
09:28
Briggs it well I don’t think that people
09:39
generally appreciate what the detail of
09:46
Boris Johnson’s approach would be I
09:49
think yeah all right I think they’re
09:56
aware for instance that the trade
10:01
negotiations the redacted trade
10:03
negotiations and then also the leat
10:08
Foreign Office report about the Irish
10:11
back top spot and the Irish border
10:13
whatever those two things and then the
10:17
final thing which no one knows about
10:19
this just isn’t spoken about is the EU
10:22
military unification bit what which Lord
10:26
James of Blackheath the point there
10:31
Roger that both you and I and also the
10:36
community you talked to are fairly well
10:40
informed about that these sort of things
10:42
they I think the vast majority of voters
10:45
I don’t know and I think their general
10:53
feed their intuitive feeling is well
10:56
whatever it is whatever brexit means to
10:59
do it
11:00
get over there
11:03
and I suppose what other issues right so
11:08
that’s when we cut to the set of real
11:11
questions which is the three you listed
11:14
which is health education and Law &
11:16
Order
11:17
now if the general feeling is Briggs it
11:24
or no Briggs it we want to vote for
11:27
someone that is going to sort out these
11:28
three things how how the people grade do
11:33
you think in fact that we’ve had almost
11:36
ten years of Conservative government
11:42
first the coalition then Teresa may now
11:45
Boris Johnson I think that’s why the I
11:49
think that’s why the the market between
11:51
labor and services is narrowing because
11:55
people are saying this um well yeah
11:57
we’ve had a conservative for ten years
12:00
you know all we seen is health education
12:07
and lower all to get worse more
12:12
persuades me to think there’s bigger
12:14
than another term that they would use it
12:17
different
12:18
well quite when they’re promising the
12:20
end austerity and I’m trying to paint
12:24
austerity as necessary because of
12:26
mismanagement by the last the the last
12:33
new labor Blair right government the
12:36
last layer I projects having been of
12:39
course Gordon Brown now you know a lot
12:45
about financial markets you know you are
12:49
from that city world
12:51
I’m not giving too much away from saying
12:54
there tell us Mike why was there no
13:00
money left in the Treasury the famous no
13:03
which keeps getting dragged up what were
13:06
the events that led up to the 2010
13:11
defeat of new labor the defeat of Gordon
13:15
Brown at the election
13:17
the global financial crisis what was it
13:22
you know what happened there never is
13:30
money in the Treasury then there is you
13:36
know a a pot of cash which is being
13:41
allocated is no we are in a debt
13:47
drooling the economy and we have an
13:52
economy where since 1986 and the finest
13:57
census act the banks that have allowed
14:01
have been allowed to move into Wild West
14:05
territory where they’re able to use
14:11
retail deposits to support investment
14:15
banking which is investor banking equals
14:21
casino banking where what is happening
14:26
is that all the sods going on is that
14:31
better be made and there are winners and
14:33
they’re losers within that financial
14:36
community and where there is one of the
14:42
2008 where things get completely out of
14:46
control and where the amount of debt
14:52
grows so high and we’re thanks they’re
14:58
thought to go bust what happens is that
15:02
the taxpayer the man on the street is
15:06
asked to step in to recapitalize those
15:11
banks and you know we’re serious it
15:15
greater where we’re getting very close
15:18
to that right now yeah and this front
15:26
lines probably going to be bigger than
15:27
last time
15:29
thank you the question
15:31
revolve around Deutsche Bank do they oh
15:35
yeah
15:38
Deutsche Bank is or need to detect at
15:41
the moment and the question would be
15:45
announced at the moment is you know how
15:52
would 30 Bank be able to keep their top
15:57
people when they’re unable to provide
16:02
Christmas bonuses for the German
16:08
Treasury or the EU ECB Treasury and
16:12
Deutsche Bank’s derivatives position
16:16
I’m not giving too much a way to say you
16:18
know all about banking accounting etc
16:20
etc what is a derivative and how big is
16:24
that problem well you know due to this
16:28
as a word that covers a wide spectrum
16:33
and it is a financial contract based
16:37
upon an underlying assets and the
16:40
underlying asset can be currency
16:44
commodities you know a range of things
16:49
but you shouldn’t weigh or the city
16:54
toward the planet or what
16:57
what it is is esoteric you know arguably
17:02
very strange contracts and contracts for
17:09
for betting as to how certain things
17:17
will occur in the future as to whether a
17:20
currency will go up or go down as to
17:23
whether a commodity where there’s grain
17:28
coffee bullion whatever how that will
17:32
move to meet its obligations under
17:41
derivative contract
17:45
affect the willingness of those same
17:49
banks to lend money overnight to each
17:53
other to balance the books with the
17:56
central banks and so when their trust
18:00
breaks down the whole system starts to
18:03
unravel yes yes that bar the attitude of
18:09
the central banks at the moment is that
18:11
I’m we taught about is in the absence of
18:14
lending between inter and intra Bank
18:17
between banks they turn to I used to be
18:22
called the central bank discount window
18:25
but more recently is called the the
18:29
Reaper market where the the the banks of
18:35
central banks are providing that stock
18:39
gap where the commercial banks will not
18:44
provide whom no funding let’s just
18:50
simplify this into a word picture right
18:53
mr. teacher-man banker he’s out at the
18:57
strip club down the ballet as we used to
18:59
call it and what he’s done is he’s gone
19:03
in and sort of says I’ll stand around
19:05
for everyone I mean he’s basically
19:08
offered to buy a drink for everybody all
19:11
the other bankers stood around are now
19:13
thinking is he going to be able to pay
19:15
for this round or are we gonna have to
19:17
get our credit cards down to pay for him
19:20
yeah and so in that situation perhaps
19:25
everybody starts getting a little bit
19:28
leery about getting their own rounding
19:30
yeah I’m looking for a way whole
19:39
financial and banking system operates on
19:44
confidence and it operates on the
19:48
confidence that the system asset ID will
19:52
continue to work as soon as you can
19:57
situation where
19:59
the participators and lose confidence
20:04
imagine what they’d expect happened
20:09
because it’s happened before they lock
20:14
down and they say we’ve got to try and
20:17
protect ourselves and when you don’t
20:22
have that free flow of funding then the
20:29
system starts who starts a tail and you
20:34
know was visit the financial standing of
20:46
all health education and law and order
20:49
and I would like is incredibly important
20:58
the fact effect is that the the
21:00
financial markets operate in a world of
21:04
their own and they operate with with
21:12
impunity so so can I just ask another
21:15
question then so the national debt has
21:18
doubled under the current conservative
21:22
administration that’s right isn’t it
21:26
yeah and that money almost exclusively
21:30
has gone into what you called casino
21:33
banking between banks at which they do
21:38
very nicely but meanwhile the real
21:43
economy the rest of us that are trying
21:44
to do real things make things sell
21:47
things provider service etc bank lending
21:51
to small and medium enterprises has
21:54
stagnated at best and gone down yeah so
22:00
so the idea no money being left in 2010
22:05
which was a joke note and not dissimilar
22:08
to this leaked phone call of the Health
22:11
Minister
22:12
joshing about you know Jeremy Corbyn
22:16
security risk whatever it comes back to
22:19
what you’re saying about the the
22:22
childishness of driving JCB’s Groupama
22:25
starting oh the financial markets are
22:34
out of control as you said that’s very
22:43
esoteric and and and the numbers are
22:46
huge and we all struggle to get our
22:50
heads round such large numbers but it
22:56
comes back to the point is the claimed
23:00
competence of a Conservative government
23:03
over a Labour government justified based
23:07
upon the experience of having a new
23:11
Labour government from 1997 to 2010 and
23:17
the 2010 to 2019 track record first
23:22
under Chancellor Osborne then under
23:27
Chancellor Hammond and now under
23:30
Chancellor was he called of the
23:35
extinction Bank Chancellor you know the
23:38
one
23:38
Saji jabbing sad as they call him right
23:43
he was a Deutsche Bank banker and we
23:45
just felt that Deutsche Bank he’s the
23:47
Chancellor of Exchequer and and he is
23:50
saying that he is more competent and his
23:53
three his two predecessors were indeed
23:57
more competent than Gordon Brown now
23:59
whatever we think of Gordon Brown I
24:01
don’t like him personally but I I think
24:05
it’s a stretch to say that those three
24:07
are have been indeed will be more
24:12
competent than Gordon Brown what they’ve
24:14
had been would you say that’s bad I
24:16
don’t I don’t take the view that simply
24:20
because one can
24:25
for Tulsa detector understand the
24:29
financial system better than nether
24:31
means that there will be any posted
24:33
change right okay except that point but
24:37
in terms of let’s have a Margaret
24:39
Thatcher
24:41
you know this fantasy idea that the the
24:45
national economy is the same as a
24:47
household budget you know it is if I may
25:01
say so nestling literal analysis and
25:04
what we go look at is the majority of
25:08
voters don’t have the sort of
25:11
understanding the UI and others about
25:13
community have about the financial
25:16
system what they’re faced with at the
25:18
moment and I think it is straight
25:21
between the Conservatives and a labor is
25:24
the truth you know who is the least
25:30
devil among knows two groups you know if
25:36
there was a similar standing yeah
25:41
somebody else who spelled out more
25:44
lastly what is going on that I know
25:48
they’ll be vote for a concept or labor
25:51
but they faced that choice is it going
25:54
to be laboring we could be conserved it
25:56
and regardless of who it is past bracket
26:03
Ellis we don’t know what’s gonna
26:05
actually happen
26:07
yeah they making promises now that’s
26:10
important to do they keep promises to
26:13
get elected when they collect it they
26:17
hardly ever do this we’re all no
26:18
promises so as to what the outcome will
26:22
be who knows and if we are correct in
26:26
thinking that a financial correction or
26:31
financial correction ear correction is
26:34
imminent then that will be the perfect
26:37
excuse don’t do anything right
26:39
yeah I accept that so on this question I
26:44
I don’t we can really talk about Briggs
26:47
it this general election and the you
26:50
know these three really important things
26:52
that you outlined health education and
26:58
law or an order and by Chuck in defense
27:03
you can’t really talk about those things
27:06
without talking about NATO for defense
27:10
but also with the with what’s going to
27:13
happen in 2020 we’ve Donald Trump and
27:18
that’s an interim this country between
27:21
you and me you know tomorrow the vast
27:38
majority of the population who will be
27:43
voted tomorrow we don’t get extreme case
27:47
someone is looking I think as well
27:51
because the BBC aren’t gonna do it the
27:54
week you know maybe we could discuss it
27:57
and you can explain
27:59
why’s that might be important what what
28:02
why it’s like why before the break zero
28:06
President Obama was so keen that the
28:10
Britain should vote to remain in the EU
28:11
where as Donald Trump is equally keen
28:16
that that that Britain doesn’t remain in
28:22
the EU what’s all that about
28:23
but the simple answer that is that all
28:27
politicians all all markets like AB
28:32
stability and what I see stability is to
28:36
maintain the current system and so you
28:42
know ideas of getting added brexit
28:46
having change creates uncertainty
28:51
and politicians of markets don’t like
28:55
that right look Mike we’re coming up to
28:58
about half an hour so I’m just going to
29:01
close with one just just one quick
29:04
question the election result Friday
29:09
morning
29:10
are we waking up to a hung parliament or
29:14
a Boris Johnson government what you’ve
29:19
got feeling well my best guess at 11:00
29:23
at 10:35 today a.m. UK is that we would
29:28
end up the hung parliament okay I’m with
29:32
you on that one that’s that that what my
29:35
gut tells me wouldn’t bet the house on
29:37
it but I think you’ll break one way or
29:40
the other I hope it breaks that way too
29:44
to be honest I think whatever there come
29:57
might be bit too conservative labor or
30:01
hung parliament what we will see you
30:05
next neck here is a consideration of the
30:08
buggers metal that we see our last 10
30:12
years playing out a much longer much
30:17
longer time line and this is just
30:20
stopping off between yes I’ll stop
30:23
recording here Mike thanks for that and
30:24
we’ll we’ll carry on our chat

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