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My friend John Ward at the slog says this in last nights at the end of the day Slog.

THE STATE NO LONGER UNDERSTANDS THE CITIZEN

At the End of the Day

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/12/10/at-the-end-of-the-day-920/

And finally, Chris Curtis – political research manager at YouGov – says the company’s analyses show the Tories with a “comfortable majority”, and seats coming their way at the expense of Labour in the North and Midlands. Said Curtis:

“As expected, the key thing deciding the extent to which each of these seats is moving against Labour is how that seat voted in the European Union referendum…..In the seats that voted most strongly to Leave in 2016 (60% or more in favour of Brexit), the swing to the Conservatives is over 6 per cent.”

This is completely in line with the feedback I’ve been getting.

I stick with my long-held estimate: the Tories will get an overall majority somewhere between thirty and ninety seats.

I am not so convinced a 30 to ninety majority is going to be gifted to the Naughty School Boy, Boris de Spaffel Legend in da own trousers Johnson. He claimed that his Naughtiest Moment had been riding a bicycle on the pavement, Mrs May’s was running in a field of wheat. Boris has also in the “Ill Child on Coats” scandal provided a, “there are lots of complicated reasons for food banks”, moment, that may well have cut through as much as May Bots cringeworthy comment on Marr.

Election Campaigns are like Santa, they are going to find out whose been naughty or nice

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The Polls are very widely drawn, averaging out such a broad spread is actually not at all likely to improve one’s chances of calling the result. That the result will be somewhere in the middle of two wrong extremes is possible but one of only 5 possibilities. That is The Low Group may be correct and an average of Low grouped polls would be a sample appropriate for smoothing. The High Group may be correct and again smoothing of this group would then perhaps improve accuracy the average of low and high together will produce the middle group and then there is the possibility that the low group is right in the right direction but well short of the mark and on the other side that the High Group is in the right direction but again well short of the mark.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

Bearing mind what I just said about possible Groups the latest polls for samples with some respondents being questioned in December are in the table above there is a range of leads from  6% to 15% for the Blue team.

This is what would happen in Parliament if it is correct.

Opinium/The Observer 4–6 Dec GB 2,002 46% 31% 13% 4% 0% 2% 3% – – 1% 15%
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Or if the latest ICM/Reuters poll is correct.

ICM Research/Reuters 6–9 Dec GB 2,011 42% 36% 12% 3% 0% 2% 3% 0% – 1% 6%

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The range of seats predicted by the polling extremes is 14 seat majority at the low end and 114 seats at the high end, the final vote, in my opinion, will break one way or the other on the day, depending on two things, Turnout as in 2017 will be key, is it the Brexit election and will disgruntled Brexit voters from 2016 turn out in force and Vote for “BRINO”, and secondly The don’t know’s, will they go for one side or the other or simply not bother?

How far people will have cottoned on to Borisś Oven Ready Turkey, not being BREXIT but a rather ragged old rubber chicken of a bad and corny joke BRINO, we will see. As there is not actually a Brexit on the Table from Boris, unless, it is to be believed, he has planned all along to go Full WTO in December 2020. I do not think Boris has the Balls to do that in Brexit Turkey terms he is, in fact, a Capon.

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In the event, it has turned out that for WTO Brexit there is no credible vote available that will make a “Full English Brexit” possible. The only real chance of something approaching Brexit is not Boris’s Caponed Turkey but actually, Chairman Corbyn’s Turkey Perched on a fence, the so-called “Credible option protecting Jobs and supply chain Brexit”. Not so much a Norweigan Blue as a Norweigan Turkey, I grant you, but it is the Norway option and actually whilst the Establishment might think the Tory WTO Blue is deceased and they can breathe a sigh of relief, Mr Corbyn might yet deliver a credible leave option on a Ballot if he is able to form a minority government or if the British electorate and the WASPI women take their courage in both hands and give him a Majority.

We do have a model for the scenario which seems to be playing out that is an electorate that does not have to think about Brexit Party or UKIP, both of whom Mr Farage by his own Hubris and incompetence has made an irrelevance, it is Farage actually, who has betrayed the Brexit vote more than anyone else, Followed By Mrs May’s, Tories and of course Boris Johnson. Boris has been trying to claim none of the Austerity and none of the Brexit subterfuge was done on his watch, he did resign as Foreign Secretary after Chequers but his real Brexit Credentials are found in his own Father a staunch EU Federalist and Boris, Miltary Union and All, is frankly a Poseur, an imposter and as we all know an inveterate liar.

So here’s the scores on the doors for back in February, remember none of the “Corbyn the terrible” memes has changed and the Purdha period allows the public to take a look at the man himself and he’s all right as a bloke, he’s actually not that odd when you consider he is a professional politician, after all. Boris is altogether odder and that he gets painted as a Toff of the people beggars belief.

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http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/uk-parliament?election=2017&CON=37&LAB=40&LD=7&UKIP=0&GRN=4&BREX=2#UnitedKingdom

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So my prediction is this, it will either be a Hung Parliament with Labour short by up to 30 or so seats or a Tory Majority in excess of 100 seats. And the telling factor will be whether or not the Norweigan Blue is in fact deceased.

Survation and Survey Monkey Called it in 2015. (Too close to Call) Turnout Is Everything.

TURN OUT IS KEY. ELECTION 2017. HIGH TURNOUT AND LABOUR WINS!!! #VOTELABOUR #DRIVEAFREINDTOTHEPOLLINGPLACE

Opinion polling for the United Kingdom general election, 2015

Opinion polling for the United Kingdom general election, 2017

TURN OUT IS KEY. ELECTION 2017. HIGH TURNOUT AND LABOUR WINS!!! #VOTELABOUR #DRIVEAFREINDTOTHEPOLLINGPLACE

Link To Lord Ashcroft Polling.

This Graph Explains the Importance of Turnout to the outcome of the Election Tomorrow.

If Turnout is the 72.2% of the Brexit Referendum last year you can see that the Light Blue line shows That the middle third of the probability distribution curve on Ashcroft’s polling numbers has a Tory Majority of between 20 and 60 seats.
The 2015 turnout was 66.1 % overall. around the same as 1997 general election less than the 77% for the 92 vote. Historically the 1950 and 51 elections had over 80% turnouts.

1.Main points

The total number of UK parliamentary electors in 2015 was 44,722,000, a fall of 1.3% from 2014.
The total number of UK local government electors in 2015 was 46,204,700, a fall of 1.3% from 2014.
Between 2014 and 2015, the total number of both parliamentary and local government electors fell in England, Wales and Scotland, but increased in Northern Ireland.
The number of parliamentary electors fell in all regions of England between 2014 and 2015. The largest decrease (-1.6%) was in the West Midlands, the smallest in the East Midlands (-0.1%).
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of local government electors fell in all regions of England, apart from the East Midlands which saw an increase of 0.02%. The largest decreases were in London and the South East, both of which decreased by 1.6%.
The 2015 electoral statistics represent the first full registers following completion of the transition to Individual Electoral Registration (IER) introduced in England, Wales and Scotland in 2014.
Electoral statistics are used by Boundary Commissions, the Electoral Commission and central government to help with the improvement of electoral policies and for statutory reviews of parliamentary constituency boundaries.

For this General Election, the Pollsters are using a number of different techniques to second guess actual declared voting intention with the Results for 2015 where they were somewhat bamboozled. The thing with Assigning probabilities and making educated guesses is that assumptions however screened for bias they may be are still predictions based upon a best guess.What we can say for certain is that the Higher the turnout than the higher the likelihood of other parties doing better than the conservatives.

The Tories were notable amongst all the parties on Social media in that they did not encourage voters, particularly the younger newly minted voters to Register, Lord Ashcroft perhaps told them something, The Same thing I am telling you now. If Turnout gets into the mid 70% range There is every chance of a Historic even Heroic electoral upset.

If the Turnout hits or Exceeds the record Brexit referendum voting level, Mrs May will be ordering a removal van, IS that a Boy Job or a Girl Job I wonder?

11 thoughts on “Capons, Turkeys and Norwegian Blues. #GE2019 Will Santa finds out whose naughty and nice. Who Will win the race for number Ten. Grub Street Says Corbyn, Wiki Ballot says, Johnson who believes in Santa and Who Believes in Dead Parrots?#TwoFingers2Brino #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20 @GloriaDePiero

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