Not The Grub Street Journal

Exegesis Hermeneutics Flux Capacitor of Truthiness

330px-Georgia_Guidestones_2014-03-18_03

is a Trailer for the premiere of an Animated ( Cartoon, not heated) debate Between Steve B Kurtz, and Roger G Lewis. Steven and Roger have been arguing on the SEEDS Blog of Dr Tim Morgan for several months from the position of two Opposing world Views. The Catastrophist View Point and the Cornucopian Viewpoint. Both claim to be “Systems” Thinkers and Claim scientific rigour in their Analysis of “Reality” and “The Facts”.

This is a Trailer of the Two broad summaries of the Question based upon Stevens systems Paper written in 2000. The Animations and Text to voice conversion have been carried out By Roger Lewis.

Selection_148.jpg

The Notes of the sources and reading which I draw upon for my own presentation in Response to Stevens Paper are all contained in this Blog. A full academically cross-referenced and cited Blog Post of my Full presentation will be posted to this Blog after the Premiere this Friday.

https://notthegrubstreetjournal.com/2019/12/10/draft-work-in-progress-notes-for-one-for-the-septics/

0:00:03.690,0:00:08.820
feedback and disequilibrium in human

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overpopulation by Stephen B Kurtz

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counter-current overwhelming evidence

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has engendered a consensus among global

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scientists that the human population

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level and trend are unsustainable

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although we are a part of nature we may

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have some choice in the ongoing process

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of which our numbers are but one

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variable individual social and

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institutional factors are examined and

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policy options are considered evidence

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is given debunking the claim that the

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rich attempt to coerce poor nations to

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reduce fertility carrying capacity and

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optimum population concepts are

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discussed particularly as to equilibrium

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potential prospects for proactive

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success are entertained introduction a

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suitable total for the number of

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citizens cannot be fixed without

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considering the land plato laws v during

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the new millennium many unexpected

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events and conditions will undoubtedly

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surprise our progeny and us perhaps the

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decline of fossil energy sources will be

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rendered benign due to scientific

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discoveries perhaps factor 10

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improvements in technological efficiency

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will aid in the rehabilitation of the

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environment perhaps our species will

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self select for survival tolerances in

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polluted or otherwise altered conditions

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these possibilities are little more than

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speculations we can have a bit more

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confidence that our numbers will not

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continue the growth pattern of the last

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century during which they quadrupled

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this paper will briefly explore why it

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is that a consensus of the world's

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experts believe the rate of growth will

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continue to slow whether or not a

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reduction or crash is likely and if it

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is plausible that stabilization might

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occur at some level other than

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extinction some people claim that humans

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are somehow exempt from the sorts of

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systemic constraints which limit the

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populations of other life forms we

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indeed have managed to extend our range

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into vastly diverse habitats due to our

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adaptive fitness language abstract

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thought and reflective consciousness are

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traits which aided this expansion

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however in a largely closed system

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physical expansion cannot be infinite we

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will explore possible scenarios which

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might lead to stabilization or

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equilibrium projections vary somewhat

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but the next half century is

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conservatively expected to result in a

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50% increase to approximately 9 billion

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of us we will explore the extent to

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which

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it is conceivable that human planning

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could affect the actual outcome the

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first section will provide brief

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evidence that overpopulation is a

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problem

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the fascination with virtual realities

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in the myth of the dematerialization of

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economies are examples of impediments to

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the grasping of this issue the vast

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majority of humans who are unwired know

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they cannot live on bits and bytes even

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if some of us believe otherwise their

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needs include food water and energy

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the second section will outline some

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variables affecting human reproductive

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behavior as positive and negative

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feedback tey he include our genetic

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makeup hardwiring environmental

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conditions socio-economic values

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institutional pressures and what is

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called free will next will be the

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question of what could constitute

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equilibrium carrying capacity connotes a

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maximum number of a species which can

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endure a habitat tolerances in a complex

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ecosystem are variable to inputs and

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internal changes and our most sensitive

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when near maximum thresholds freedom has

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been described as the key human value

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and it is reflected in maximal options

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for future decisions and actions

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Buchanan 1997 equilibrium seems

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inconsistent with carrying capacity

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since the proximity of potential

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constraints would reduce future options

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and maximize the destabilizing risks of

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changing conditions

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if attainable equilibrium at some

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variable optimum level should maximize

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freedom and well-being and minimize

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destabilizing occurrences finally I will

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venture into the realm of speculation to

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consider the prospects for success in

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the self-determination of equilibrium

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peace and the minimization of future

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suffering seem to be related to the

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ultimate outcome what problem

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intensification of production to feed an

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increased population leads to a till

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greater increase in population peter

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Farb 1978 Albert Bartlett emeritus

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professor of physics at the University

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of Colorado has demonstrated that with a

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1% annual growth rate human population

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would in 17,000 years equal all the

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atoms in the universe Bartlett 1996 as a

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reference the last ice age was about

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17,000 years ago we currently are

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growing at a rate around 50 percent

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faster than that Bartlett was responding

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to the claim of the possibility of 1

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percent annual growth of the

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human population for seven billion then

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corrected to seven million years by

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management professor Julian Simon if

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space were the only requirement for a

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healthy enduring habitat the issue would

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be relatively easy to address in short

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sustainable nuns top growth of physical

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systems is an oxymoron following our

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some opinions from diverse sources in a

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letter to me dated October 3rd 1996 US

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Vice President Al Gore stated I consider

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the dramatic growth in the world's

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population to be the greatest challenge

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currently facing the environment the

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effects of this rapid increase are felt

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around the globe starvation

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deforestation and lack of clean water

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are just some of the problems stuart le

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doll former US Secretary of the Interior

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wrote in a recent essay current

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consumption of the two cornerstone

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resources of modern life water and oil

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foreshadow shortages that will cripple

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the economies of many nations if present

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population trends continue we doll 2000

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there is a solid scientific consensus

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evidenced by a 1992 joint statement by

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the British Royal Society in the US

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National Academy of Sciences urging

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world leaders to address human

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overpopulation as well as by the world

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scientists warning to humanity written

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in 1993 and signed by over 1600 say New

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Yor scientists from 70 countries which

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includes the following the earth is

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finite its ability to absorb wastes and

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destructive effluent is finite its

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ability to provide food and energy is

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finite its ability to provide for

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growing numbers of people is finite and

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we are fast approaching many of the

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Earth's limits pressures resulting from

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unrestrained population growth put

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demands on the natural world that can

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overwhelm any efforts to achieve a

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sustainable future if we are to halt the

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destruction of our environment we must

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accept limits to that growth no more

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than a few decades remain before the

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chance to avert the threats we now

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confront will be lost in the prospects

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for Humanity immeasurably diminished

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we must stabilize population we must

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ensure sexual equality and guarantee

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women control over their own

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reproductive decisions many people

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besides world leaders and scientists

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understand the seriousness of our

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predicament John H Adams executive

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director of the Natural Resources

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Defense

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council an organization not active in

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population Affairs began an essay

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entitled what matters most in the amicus

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journal there is no single thing more

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significant for the future of the world

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than the fact of human population growth

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Adams 1997 author of Pulitzer

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prize-winning Guns Germs and Steel Jared

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Diamond wrote in the third chimpanzee a

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nuclear holocaust is certain to prove

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disastrous but it isn't happening now an

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environmental Holocaust is equally

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certain to prove disastrous but it

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differs in that it is already well

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underway Dimond 1992 diamond may

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unfortunately underestimate the risk of

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a quick violent demise the University of

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Toronto's peace and Conflict Studies

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program has done extensive research on

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factors influencing violent conflict one

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area of the program is the project on

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environment population and security

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scarcities depletion and degradation of

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resources such as potable water are part

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of the feedback loops of human activity

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habitat systems which impact violent

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conflict

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Homer Dixon at al 1993 don't worry be

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happy' is sadly no longer applicable to

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our predicament there are some though

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who dismissed these concerns as fiction

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they point to past analyzes air like

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1968 which contains some incorrect

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judgments as to the timing of

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approaching limits evidence is strong

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though that the trends are proceeding as

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the envision if we believe the

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scientific consensus the naysayers

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include those like the late Julian Simon

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and reason magazines Ronald Bailey who

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conveniently ignores issues like

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declining stocks of fish which are to be

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shared by a quarter of a million net

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additional people daily Bailey

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2000 the UN has been at the forefront

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and seeking solutions for overpopulation

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the poorest nations are struggling to

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address the issue but aid promised by

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wealthy nations has been slow in coming

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India recently announced a National

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Population policy in China is still

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struggling with the issue denial that

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overpopulation exists and is a serious

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problem led biologist Garret Hardin to

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write a new book last year called the

0:08:47.130,0:08:51.290
ostrich factor suffice it to say that I

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view the evidence is overwhelming

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feedback the more we examine the

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relationships between population

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resources and the environment the

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stronger

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the connections appear doctor Nafees

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Sadiq in an address to the UN conference

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on Environment and development Geneva

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1991 individual / social / environmental

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the widely accepted theory called the

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demographic transition holds that upon

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reaching a secure and materially

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comfortable lifestyle birth rates tend

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to decline the case histories of North

0:09:19.770,0:09:23.340
America and Western Europe are used as

0:09:21.630,0:09:26.010
evidence for the theories of validity in

0:09:23.340,0:09:27.890
some cases correlations have occurred

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and causal links may seem obvious

0:09:27.890,0:09:32.040
however many physical and social

0:09:30.480,0:09:34.590
scientists are more rigorous when

0:09:32.040,0:09:36.360
seeking causal evidence Virginia Byrne

0:09:34.590,0:09:38.040
Athiya professor of psychiatry at

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Vanderbilt University Medical School

0:09:38.040,0:09:41.490
argues convincingly that the perception

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of the commencement of better economic

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times material well-being leads to

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higher fertility rates she gives several

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good examples in times of privation in

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France prior to the revolution a sense

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of limits promoted reproductive caution

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and small families were the norm

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prosperity induced high fertility rates

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in Ireland after the introduction of the

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potato and in Turkey when families

0:10:03.210,0:10:09.330
received land Abernethy 1994 even when a

0:10:07.530,0:10:10.770
demographic transition is claimed to

0:10:09.330,0:10:12.900
have occurred there could be several

0:10:10.770,0:10:14.850
generations between supposed cause and

0:10:12.900,0:10:16.500
effect making the number of variables

0:10:14.850,0:10:18.990
too numerous and complex to yield

0:10:16.500,0:10:21.240
analytic certainty several generations

0:10:18.990,0:10:22.770
of high fertility like those in the US

0:10:21.240,0:10:24.570
during the first half of the 20th

0:10:22.770,0:10:26.490
century could result in a rapid

0:10:24.570,0:10:28.980
population increase after which a

0:10:26.490,0:10:30.840
slowdown in births occurs abernethie

0:10:28.980,0:10:33.360
claims that the rise of the u.s. is an

0:10:30.840,0:10:35.490
economic power with concomitant optimism

0:10:33.360,0:10:37.410
for well-being by its citizens was key

0:10:35.490,0:10:39.390
to the high birth rates she sees

0:10:37.410,0:10:41.880
uncertainty about real wages and job

0:10:39.390,0:10:43.830
security combined with the high costs of

0:10:41.880,0:10:45.570
education and health care as factors in

0:10:43.830,0:10:48.180
the slowdown in u.s. fertility in the

0:10:45.570,0:10:50.580
latter part of the century humans do not

0:10:48.180,0:10:52.530
easily embrace this sort of evidence but

0:10:50.580,0:10:54.180
we must continue to examine the possible

0:10:52.530,0:10:56.670
causes of our actions if we are to

0:10:54.180,0:10:58.620
pursue effective solutions many animals

0:10:56.670,0:11:00.480
exhibit reduced fertility and/or lower

0:10:58.620,0:11:02.310
survival rates of young offspring well

0:11:00.480,0:11:04.770
in advance of serious food shortages

0:11:02.310,0:11:07.020
this is an adaptation for survival

0:11:04.770,0:11:08.460
humans exhibit similar patterns when

0:11:07.020,0:11:10.890
stressed by overcrowding and

0:11:08.460,0:11:12.540
environmental scarcities d-h stop

0:11:10.890,0:11:14.940
discussed this at length and I

0:11:12.540,0:11:16.770
continued by quoting the predicted

0:11:14.940,0:11:18.810
catastrophe of the world population

0:11:16.770,0:11:20.610
increasing by geometrical progression to

0:11:18.810,0:11:23.280
the point of starvation is unlikely to

0:11:20.610,0:11:25.800
occur it will be four stalled if not by

0:11:23.280,0:11:27.990
conscious human design by physiological

0:11:25.800,0:11:30.300
mechanisms which have evolved to obviate

0:11:27.990,0:11:31.770
such a calamity this says not to

0:11:30.300,0:11:34.470
minimize the fact that these mechanisms

0:11:31.770,0:11:36.150
themselves are highly unpleasant nature

0:11:34.470,0:11:38.760
prescribes happiness when it has

0:11:36.150,0:11:40.920
survival value to man nevertheless is

0:11:38.760,0:11:42.780
given an answer we need not wait for the

0:11:40.920,0:11:45.540
physiological killers and neighbors to

0:11:42.780,0:11:47.340
come upon us it should not however be

0:11:45.540,0:11:48.750
beyond the capacity of man to develop

0:11:47.340,0:11:50.640
cultural methods of regulating

0:11:48.750,0:11:55.200
population numbers which do not involve

0:11:50.640,0:11:57.090
distress and unhappiness stott 1962 bill

0:11:55.200,0:11:59.610
reese well-known for developing the

0:11:57.090,0:12:01.290
ecological footprint concept noted ten

0:11:59.610,0:12:03.360
years ago the relevance of work by

0:12:01.290,0:12:05.610
prigogine and Stander's Crutchfield

0:12:03.360,0:12:07.740
Adelle and Palmer regarding thresholds

0:12:05.610,0:12:09.540
of unpredictability the systemic

0:12:07.740,0:12:10.980
feedback that will affect human numbers

0:12:09.540,0:12:12.840
with or without our intent may be

0:12:10.980,0:12:15.060
unexpected and timing and intensity

0:12:12.840,0:12:17.550
worth noting here is the principle of

0:12:15.060,0:12:19.080
the weak link as expressed by Reese it

0:12:17.550,0:12:20.700
should be understood that while human

0:12:19.080,0:12:23.040
society depends on many ecological

0:12:20.700,0:12:24.930
resources and functions for survival

0:12:23.040,0:12:26.850
carrying capacity is ultimately

0:12:24.930,0:12:30.240
determined by the single vital resource

0:12:26.850,0:12:32.400
or function and least supply Reese 1990

0:12:30.240,0:12:34.950
there are well entrenched historically

0:12:32.400,0:12:37.440
based values which provide disincentives

0:12:34.950,0:12:38.970
to reducing fertility only children were

0:12:37.440,0:12:41.310
thought to be deprived by the lack of

0:12:38.970,0:12:42.990
siblings this folk wisdom is still

0:12:41.310,0:12:45.180
widely believed despite the lack of

0:12:42.990,0:12:47.400
conclusive supporting evidence large

0:12:45.180,0:12:49.800
families are accepted by many societies

0:12:47.400,0:12:51.480
as a joy or a blessing when farm labor

0:12:49.800,0:12:53.640
was important for economic viability

0:12:51.480,0:12:55.830
this might have reflected rational

0:12:53.640,0:12:58.020
criteria in modern industrialized

0:12:55.830,0:13:00.720
nations agriculture depends more on

0:12:58.020,0:13:02.970
energy chemicals and technology than on

0:13:00.720,0:13:05.340
farm hands and a very small percentage

0:13:02.970,0:13:07.290
of families is engaged in farming in

0:13:05.340,0:13:09.000
many countries the family farm has been

0:13:07.290,0:13:11.640
subdivided among offspring for

0:13:09.000,0:13:14.100
generations resulting in small unviable

0:13:11.640,0:13:16.110
plots feedback of this nature can be

0:13:14.100,0:13:18.390
mythical but nonetheless is still

0:13:16.110,0:13:20.190
effective in societies with high

0:13:18.390,0:13:22.080
mortality rates for infants and youth

0:13:20.190,0:13:24.360
and lack of institutional old age

0:13:22.080,0:13:26.130
security poor families need to produce

0:13:24.360,0:13:26.400
children as their only realistic means

0:13:26.130,0:13:28.530
of

0:13:26.400,0:13:30.030
attempting to secure their future here

0:13:28.530,0:13:31.560
the biological constraint of the

0:13:30.030,0:13:33.270
prospect of inadequate food is

0:13:31.560,0:13:35.730
challenged by the human need for future

0:13:33.270,0:13:37.890
security this seems a most basic example

0:13:35.730,0:13:40.490
of the human predicament called by the

0:13:37.890,0:13:43.740
Club of Rome the global problematic

0:13:40.490,0:13:45.570
policy options what types of actions

0:13:43.740,0:13:47.850
might prove useful in a humane attempt

0:13:45.570,0:13:49.380
to influence fertility the acceptance

0:13:47.850,0:13:51.000
that we have some sphere of free will

0:13:49.380,0:13:53.400
seems necessary to continue this

0:13:51.000,0:13:56.130
exploration just how much is not easy to

0:13:53.400,0:13:57.870
say sociobiology x' premises that

0:13:56.130,0:13:59.910
individuals of all species including

0:13:57.870,0:14:01.470
humans are genetically predisposed to

0:13:59.910,0:14:04.080
act in ways that maximize their

0:14:01.470,0:14:05.940
inclusive fitness axiomatically every

0:14:04.080,0:14:08.010
living individual had ancestors that

0:14:05.940,0:14:12.810
succeeded so most of us carry genes

0:14:08.010,0:14:14.640
impelling us Abernethy 1993 it is not my

0:14:12.810,0:14:16.650
intention to attempt to classify or

0:14:14.640,0:14:18.540
divide human behavior into determined

0:14:16.650,0:14:20.660
movements or free actions or any

0:14:18.540,0:14:23.370
percentage combination and of the two

0:14:20.660,0:14:25.350
tendencies or predispositions can be

0:14:23.370,0:14:27.780
accepted as indicators of probabilities

0:14:25.350,0:14:30.060
or expectations we plan and make choices

0:14:27.780,0:14:32.340
about our role in sexual reproduction to

0:14:30.060,0:14:33.990
greater or lesser degrees anslee cole

0:14:32.340,0:14:36.120
has delineated three categories for

0:14:33.990,0:14:38.160
successful intentional implementation of

0:14:36.120,0:14:40.050
reduced fertility first is the

0:14:38.160,0:14:41.610
actualization and realization that both

0:14:40.050,0:14:41.910
parties indeed have a choice in the

0:14:41.610,0:14:44.040
matter

0:14:41.910,0:14:46.350
second is that they perceive benefits

0:14:44.040,0:14:47.940
from the resulting smaller family third

0:14:46.350,0:14:49.410
is the availability and knowledge of

0:14:47.940,0:14:54.060
various means of implementing their

0:14:49.410,0:14:55.470
choice Cole 1989 dr. John R weeks is the

0:14:54.060,0:14:58.620
director of the International population

0:14:55.470,0:15:00.840
Center at San Diego State University he

0:14:58.620,0:15:02.580
develops Cole's concepts into policies

0:15:00.840,0:15:04.920
with direct and indirect impacts on

0:15:02.580,0:15:07.170
reproductive behavior from a systems

0:15:04.920,0:15:09.630
perspective these constitute feedback

0:15:07.170,0:15:11.520
direct policies include full legal

0:15:09.630,0:15:13.790
rights for women payments for having

0:15:11.520,0:15:16.560
fewer children higher rather than lower

0:15:13.790,0:15:18.900
taxes per child legalization of

0:15:16.560,0:15:21.270
contraceptive technologies abortion and

0:15:18.900,0:15:23.000
sterilization and availability of family

0:15:21.270,0:15:25.290
planning services and local outlets

0:15:23.000,0:15:27.480
examples of indirect policies are

0:15:25.290,0:15:29.760
improved secular education increased

0:15:27.480,0:15:31.400
economic opportunities for women lower

0:15:29.760,0:15:33.870
infant and child mortality rates

0:15:31.400,0:15:35.670
community birth quotas and public

0:15:33.870,0:15:39.190
campaigns promoting knowledge and use of

0:15:35.670,0:15:40.810
birth control weeks 1990

0:15:39.190,0:15:42.490
further discussion of possible planned

0:15:40.810,0:15:45.210
intervention will be undertaken in the

0:15:42.490,0:15:48.940
final section of this paper prospects

0:15:45.210,0:15:51.190
institutional obstacles government most

0:15:48.940,0:15:53.050
governments even when well-meaning have

0:15:51.190,0:15:55.360
discovered deficit financing and become

0:15:53.050,0:15:56.980
addicted to revenue growth the addition

0:15:55.360,0:15:58.630
of interest results in larger total

0:15:56.980,0:16:01.180
future payments than the amount of the

0:15:58.630,0:16:03.400
original loan this inevitably results in

0:16:01.180,0:16:05.890
a race to keep up as new borrowings are

0:16:03.400,0:16:07.120
added on a regular basis with the onset

0:16:05.890,0:16:09.070
of declining fertility and

0:16:07.120,0:16:11.020
demographically aging populations in

0:16:09.070,0:16:12.640
many developed nations emigration

0:16:11.020,0:16:14.620
increases are sought to keep the economy

0:16:12.640,0:16:16.750
growing and to expand payments into the

0:16:14.620,0:16:19.240
pension system there have been attempts

0:16:16.750,0:16:20.800
in Germany and France among others to

0:16:19.240,0:16:23.230
stimulate higher fertility by

0:16:20.800,0:16:25.720
native-born women this may reflect fear

0:16:23.230,0:16:27.550
of cultural delusion by societies and is

0:16:25.720,0:16:29.140
evidenced by recent political victories

0:16:27.550,0:16:31.810
by advocates of restricted immigration

0:16:29.140,0:16:33.700
if there were a national wealth surplus

0:16:31.810,0:16:35.620
rather than a debt growth would not only

0:16:33.700,0:16:38.320
be unnecessary it might be undesirable

0:16:35.620,0:16:40.060
old age security would be covered and

0:16:38.320,0:16:43.660
remaining wealth could be shared by

0:16:40.060,0:16:45.130
fewer people business globalization has

0:16:43.660,0:16:47.470
been accompanied by the dominance of

0:16:45.130,0:16:49.210
multinational corporations it is the

0:16:47.470,0:16:51.130
mandate of corporations to deliver

0:16:49.210,0:16:53.110
maximum profits to shareholders and

0:16:51.130,0:16:54.850
managers seek to maximize their own

0:16:53.110,0:16:57.340
income and security by achieving the

0:16:54.850,0:16:59.620
goal it is not rational for corporations

0:16:57.340,0:17:01.930
or any business to seek shrinking

0:16:59.620,0:17:03.850
markets for goods or services so the

0:17:01.930,0:17:06.610
system has a built-in growth imperative

0:17:03.850,0:17:08.319
at the same time labor shortages would

0:17:06.610,0:17:10.810
give bargaining power to workers and

0:17:08.319,0:17:13.060
whoa uld likely increased costs to

0:17:10.810,0:17:14.949
business for decades businesses have

0:17:13.060,0:17:16.600
been relocating facilities to areas

0:17:14.949,0:17:19.180
where labor is abundant and therefore

0:17:16.600,0:17:21.160
cheaper a lack of necessary skills may

0:17:19.180,0:17:23.079
be a short-term constraint but a

0:17:21.160,0:17:25.600
declining population is generally not

0:17:23.079,0:17:27.520
appealing to businesses now let's have a

0:17:25.600,0:17:29.860
look at how a Chinese expert perceives

0:17:27.520,0:17:32.080
this Jones are wrong his deputy director

0:17:29.860,0:17:34.480
of China population welfare foundation

0:17:32.080,0:17:35.460
in Beijing he wrote a report to the 3rd

0:17:34.480,0:17:37.090
Conference of the International

0:17:35.460,0:17:38.740
Consortium for the study of

0:17:37.090,0:17:41.380
environmental security from which I

0:17:38.740,0:17:43.300
quote China is caught in a vicious cycle

0:17:41.380,0:17:45.430
of swelling population and diminishing

0:17:43.300,0:17:48.250
resources economic growth is the goal of

0:17:45.430,0:17:50.170
China's industrial policy however rapid

0:17:48.250,0:17:53.510
population growth lays the economic

0:17:50.170,0:17:55.340
growth that occurs Sarang 1994

0:17:53.510,0:17:57.110
it appears that it is possible for

0:17:55.340,0:17:58.669
business leaders to catch on that there

0:17:57.110,0:18:00.590
is a point of diminishing return to

0:17:58.669,0:18:02.600
population linked economic growth

0:18:00.590,0:18:05.150
I expect this feedback to spread

0:18:02.600,0:18:08.660
globally like a viral meme as systemic

0:18:05.150,0:18:11.330
instability increases religion there are

0:18:08.660,0:18:12.919
many religious and ethnic beliefs which

0:18:11.330,0:18:13.429
can influence human reproductive

0:18:12.919,0:18:15.710
behavior

0:18:13.429,0:18:18.440
some examples include Muslim sex

0:18:15.710,0:18:20.750
Orthodox Jewish and Catholic doctrine

0:18:18.440,0:18:22.309
the most extreme example that I'm aware

0:18:20.750,0:18:24.500
of is the Mormon belief that 12

0:18:22.309,0:18:26.809
offspring by a man places him closest to

0:18:24.500,0:18:28.429
God groups at war of overtly used

0:18:26.809,0:18:30.410
competitive breeding as an alternate

0:18:28.429,0:18:32.540
method of conquest and rape has been

0:18:30.410,0:18:34.309
used as part of ethnic cleansing other

0:18:32.540,0:18:36.650
than obscure suicide sex

0:18:34.309,0:18:37.940
I know of no religions which advocate a

0:18:36.650,0:18:40.130
reduction in the number of their

0:18:37.940,0:18:42.530
adherents some might recognize that

0:18:40.130,0:18:44.030
overpopulation is a problem this could

0:18:42.530,0:18:45.620
present a dilemma to them as they seek

0:18:44.030,0:18:47.780
to spread their version of the truth and

0:18:45.620,0:18:49.669
the good the dalai lama gave a speech in

0:18:47.780,0:18:51.080
new zealand a few years ago where it was

0:18:49.669,0:18:52.820
reported that he said the world's

0:18:51.080,0:18:56.210
population problem would benefit from

0:18:52.820,0:18:58.130
more priests nuns gays and lesbians i

0:18:56.210,0:19:00.290
interpret this as a touch of humor

0:18:58.130,0:19:03.980
applied to a serious problem by a wise

0:19:00.290,0:19:05.840
leader equilibrium all optimum must lie

0:19:03.980,0:19:08.809
between the minimum viable population

0:19:05.840,0:19:10.070
size MVP and the biophysical carrying

0:19:08.809,0:19:12.620
capacity of the planet

0:19:10.070,0:19:15.020
Gretchen see daily a air lick and Pierre

0:19:12.620,0:19:16.309
lick the above range is wide enough to

0:19:15.020,0:19:18.890
drive all the vehicles in the world

0:19:16.309,0:19:21.559
through how might we narrow it the

0:19:18.890,0:19:22.850
author's stayed in the same paper social

0:19:21.559,0:19:24.710
preferences are critical because

0:19:22.850,0:19:26.540
achieving any target size requires

0:19:24.710,0:19:28.790
establishing social policies to

0:19:26.540,0:19:30.980
influence fertility rates human

0:19:28.790,0:19:33.140
population sizes have never and will

0:19:30.980,0:19:35.510
never automatically equilibrate at some

0:19:33.140,0:19:37.070
level there is no feedback mechanism

0:19:35.510,0:19:39.080
that will lead to perfectly maintained

0:19:37.070,0:19:43.970
identical crude birth and death rates

0:19:39.080,0:19:45.830
daily at al 1994 although I agree with

0:19:43.970,0:19:47.690
the need for a planning it seems like a

0:19:45.830,0:19:49.940
conceptual error to place it somehow

0:19:47.690,0:19:51.830
outside the feedback system again

0:19:49.940,0:19:53.600
ignoring the freewill issue it is not

0:19:51.830,0:19:55.160
reasonable in my opinion to somehow

0:19:53.600,0:19:57.530
excise our planning from the ecosystem

0:19:55.160,0:19:59.179
of which we are a part recall stats

0:19:57.530,0:20:01.490
point about natural governors of

0:19:59.179,0:20:04.159
fertility our planning could be part of

0:20:01.490,0:20:05.990
our adaptive fitness the paper goes on

0:20:04.159,0:20:07.250
to state criteria for choosing optimum

0:20:05.990,0:20:09.500
population size

0:20:07.250,0:20:11.240
first is a desired minimum quality of

0:20:09.500,0:20:13.730
life balanced by the impacts to the

0:20:11.240,0:20:15.350
ecosystem for sustaining it second is an

0:20:13.730,0:20:17.419
acceptance that material wealth will

0:20:15.350,0:20:19.580
always be unequally divided among humans

0:20:17.419,0:20:21.710
and the resulting need for a cushion or

0:20:19.580,0:20:24.260
excess of continuously available

0:20:21.710,0:20:26.090
per-capita resources they include a

0:20:24.260,0:20:27.980
consideration of waste reprocessing

0:20:26.090,0:20:30.169
without toxification of the system

0:20:27.980,0:20:32.539
next is the value of cultural diversity

0:20:30.169,0:20:34.340
they believe Geographic dispersion

0:20:32.539,0:20:36.559
requires a certain minimum amount of

0:20:34.340,0:20:39.169
population I think this is a prehistoric

0:20:36.559,0:20:41.690
era consideration and not meaningful now

0:20:39.169,0:20:43.909
rather it seems that an excessive people

0:20:41.690,0:20:44.990
combined with globalization results in

0:20:43.909,0:20:47.360
cultural extinctions

0:20:44.990,0:20:49.250
I find this categorically different than

0:20:47.360,0:20:51.260
the prior criteria believing that

0:20:49.250,0:20:53.500
adaptation and evolution will result in

0:20:51.260,0:20:56.059
ongoing cultural changes in any event a

0:20:53.500,0:20:57.919
critical mass distributional criteria

0:20:56.059,0:20:59.539
similarly perplexes me although i

0:20:57.919,0:21:02.059
understand the cultural value of

0:20:59.539,0:21:03.860
urbanization these two criteria seem

0:21:02.059,0:21:06.110
more like value judgments based on the

0:21:03.860,0:21:08.600
cultural biases of the authors who live

0:21:06.110,0:21:11.120
in the developed world next is the need

0:21:08.600,0:21:13.400
to protect biodiversity obviously each

0:21:11.120,0:21:16.010
human displaces or alters habitats

0:21:13.400,0:21:17.929
potentially useful for other life forms

0:21:16.010,0:21:21.169
with the partial exception of human

0:21:17.929,0:21:23.150
parasites biodiversity they explained is

0:21:21.169,0:21:24.919
anthropocentric ly valuable as part of

0:21:23.150,0:21:27.049
our habitat and is necessary for our

0:21:24.919,0:21:29.030
health it also provides aesthetic

0:21:27.049,0:21:30.860
pleasure they then add the ethical

0:21:29.030,0:21:33.440
responsibilities of humans to minimize

0:21:30.860,0:21:35.600
species loss cultural bias seems

0:21:33.440,0:21:36.919
involved in the latter two elements but

0:21:35.600,0:21:39.770
it is arguable that they reflect

0:21:36.919,0:21:41.480
universal human values the authors then

0:21:39.770,0:21:43.520
add the key value of human freedom that

0:21:41.480,0:21:45.679
was mentioned in the introduction in

0:21:43.520,0:21:47.480
general we would choose a population

0:21:45.679,0:21:49.220
size that maximizes very broad

0:21:47.480,0:21:53.809
environmental and social options for

0:21:49.220,0:21:54.830
individuals daily at al 1994 for a

0:21:53.809,0:21:56.720
different perspective

0:21:54.830,0:21:58.760
let's turn again to John's Arang on

0:21:56.720,0:22:01.100
China's population according to the

0:21:58.760,0:22:03.380
China Academy of Sciences and based on

0:22:01.100,0:22:06.080
estimated land resources the optimum

0:22:03.380,0:22:11.809
population in China is 950 million now

0:22:06.080,0:22:14.059
and 1.16 billion by 2019 94 serangan

0:22:11.809,0:22:16.520
states that China's carrying capacity

0:22:14.059,0:22:18.049
also based on land resources is no more

0:22:16.520,0:22:20.330
than 1.6 billion

0:22:18.049,0:22:21.080
he believes that serious environmental

0:22:20.330,0:22:22.490
and social

0:22:21.080,0:22:24.440
problems exist and will worsen as

0:22:22.490,0:22:26.300
China's population first exceeds the

0:22:24.440,0:22:29.030
optimum level and then the carrying

0:22:26.300,0:22:31.610
capacity level maybe China expected to

0:22:29.030,0:22:34.160
add some land resources between 1994 and

0:22:31.610,0:22:36.440
2000 what other variables could cause

0:22:34.160,0:22:38.960
its optimum population to go up by seven

0:22:36.440,0:22:41.660
percent in six years no answer is given

0:22:38.960,0:22:43.580
in the report Nikolas Blow and Bergen

0:22:41.660,0:22:45.680
Nobel winner in physics and Harvard

0:22:43.580,0:22:47.150
professor said in a presentation two

0:22:45.680,0:22:48.950
colleagues would a total world

0:22:47.150,0:22:51.050
population of about 1 billion has

0:22:48.950,0:22:53.210
existed two hundred years ago represent

0:22:51.050,0:22:55.490
a reasonable compromise between quantity

0:22:53.210,0:22:58.460
and quality of human life the answer

0:22:55.490,0:23:02.030
clearly involves value judgments blow in

0:22:58.460,0:23:03.890
bergen 1996 J Kenneth Smail

0:23:02.030,0:23:06.530
professor of anthropology and sociology

0:23:03.890,0:23:08.330
at Kenyon College in Ohio has an

0:23:06.530,0:23:09.740
argument for a sustainable optimum of

0:23:08.330,0:23:11.660
approximately two billion by the

0:23:09.740,0:23:13.580
beginning of the 23rd century

0:23:11.660,0:23:15.800
he presents much evidence that mere

0:23:13.580,0:23:17.630
stabilization during the 21st century

0:23:15.800,0:23:18.350
will result in a future demographic

0:23:17.630,0:23:23.150
catastrophe

0:23:18.350,0:23:24.890
Smail 1995 I see no clear way given a

0:23:23.150,0:23:27.230
current cultural economic and

0:23:24.890,0:23:29.210
geophysical variables of societies on

0:23:27.230,0:23:30.710
earth to expect a consensus for

0:23:29.210,0:23:33.860
approximating an optimum human

0:23:30.710,0:23:36.020
population stabilization or equilibrium

0:23:33.860,0:23:38.120
if it is to be realized any time soon

0:23:36.020,0:23:40.940
would seem to be based on fragmented

0:23:38.120,0:23:42.860
actions or unintentional outcomes what

0:23:40.940,0:23:44.090
is obvious from my investigations is

0:23:42.860,0:23:45.950
that most concerned with the issue

0:23:44.090,0:23:49.000
believe that the desired direction for

0:23:45.950,0:23:50.870
human population is downward prospects

0:23:49.000,0:23:52.940
nobody knows if a steady-state

0:23:50.870,0:23:53.660
population could be reached by the year

0:23:52.940,0:23:55.700
2050

0:23:53.660,0:23:58.250
perhaps a period of negative population

0:23:55.700,0:24:01.420
growth could be envisioned hopefully not

0:23:58.250,0:24:04.490
be caused by war famine and pestilence

0:24:01.420,0:24:06.050
blow in Bergen we have discussed a

0:24:04.490,0:24:08.270
variety of influences on human

0:24:06.050,0:24:10.490
reproduction included were inherent

0:24:08.270,0:24:12.050
predispositions and individual responses

0:24:10.490,0:24:15.200
to environmental and social conditions

0:24:12.050,0:24:17.270
we also explored possible policy options

0:24:15.200,0:24:19.850
which many believe have the potential to

0:24:17.270,0:24:21.770
influence our demographic future besides

0:24:19.850,0:24:23.930
the institutional obstacles mentioned

0:24:21.770,0:24:25.970
there are some common misconceptions by

0:24:23.930,0:24:28.730
many well-meaning people I will mention

0:24:25.970,0:24:30.710
only one which if sufficiently countered

0:24:28.730,0:24:33.350
might have better more humane resolution

0:24:30.710,0:24:34.590
the environment and social justice are

0:24:33.350,0:24:35.970
issues which have

0:24:34.590,0:24:37.260
showing support among those able to

0:24:35.970,0:24:39.900
think about more than their immediate

0:24:37.260,0:24:41.190
material needs advocates seem certain

0:24:39.900,0:24:43.230
that their own issue is the most

0:24:41.190,0:24:45.570
important one but many failed to

0:24:43.230,0:24:47.159
question its sufficiency a typical

0:24:45.570,0:24:49.020
response to the introduction of the

0:24:47.159,0:24:50.549
overpopulation factor is that the rich

0:24:49.020,0:24:52.260
should reduce their consumption and

0:24:50.549,0:24:53.940
waste production instead of chiding the

0:24:52.260,0:24:55.770
poor people of the planet this

0:24:53.940,0:24:57.270
demonstrates a lack of knowledge that

0:24:55.770,0:24:59.250
the port have been clamoring for our aid

0:24:57.270,0:25:00.860
in population matters and that they have

0:24:59.250,0:25:02.760
banded together to help themselves

0:25:00.860,0:25:04.409
provision of such aid is not a

0:25:02.760,0:25:07.049
substitute for encouraging conservation

0:25:04.409,0:25:09.480
and cleaner economies at home there is

0:25:07.049,0:25:13.500
no either slash or involved both are

0:25:09.480,0:25:15.630
desirable in 1989 as verified by the UN

0:25:13.500,0:25:17.340
Population Fund the following countries

0:25:15.630,0:25:19.200
signed a statement urging early

0:25:17.340,0:25:23.070
stabilization of human population

0:25:19.200,0:25:26.270
Austria Bangladesh Barbados Booton

0:25:23.070,0:25:30.059
Botswana Cape Verde China Colombia

0:25:26.270,0:25:32.520
Cyprus Dominica Dominican Republic Egypt

0:25:30.059,0:25:36.179
Fiji Grenada Guinea Bissau

0:25:32.520,0:25:41.100
Haiti Iceland India Indonesia Jamaica

0:25:36.179,0:25:45.360
Japan Jordan Kenya rep of Korea Liberia

0:25:41.100,0:25:48.690
Malta Mauritius Morocco Nepal Nigeria

0:25:45.360,0:25:52.260
Panama Philippines Rwanda Senegal

0:25:48.690,0:25:54.630
Seychelle Singapore Sri Lanka Saint

0:25:52.260,0:25:57.299
Kitts Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent

0:25:54.630,0:26:01.470
and the Grenadines Sudan Thailand

0:25:57.299,0:26:03.840
Tunisia Vanuatu and Zimbabwe note the

0:26:01.470,0:26:05.429
absence of most wealthy nations it is

0:26:03.840,0:26:07.110
ridiculous to claim that the rich are

0:26:05.429,0:26:09.779
trying to coerce the poor nations to

0:26:07.110,0:26:11.429
reduce population in fact they are not

0:26:09.779,0:26:14.010
responding to the affirmed needs of the

0:26:11.429,0:26:15.600
poor the following countries are part of

0:26:14.010,0:26:17.909
either the South Commission or partners

0:26:15.600,0:26:21.600
in population and development Zimbabwe

0:26:17.909,0:26:25.980
Kenya Mexico Colombia Thailand Indonesia

0:26:21.600,0:26:30.169
Bangladesh Morocco Egypt Tunisia China

0:26:25.980,0:26:34.470
India Pakistan Uganda Algeria Argentina

0:26:30.169,0:26:38.000
Brazil Cuba Guyana ivory chest Jamaica

0:26:34.470,0:26:41.820
Kuwait Malaysia Mozambique Nigeria

0:26:38.000,0:26:45.539
Philippines Senegal Sri Lanka Uruguay

0:26:41.820,0:26:48.179
Venezuela Yugoslavia former and Western

0:26:45.539,0:26:48.480
Samoa the partners share expertise with

0:26:48.179,0:26:50.549
each

0:26:48.480,0:26:53.370
in reproductive health appropriate

0:26:50.549,0:26:55.320
technologies and population policy the

0:26:53.370,0:26:56.880
challenge to the South report of the

0:26:55.320,0:26:59.490
South Commission included this

0:26:56.880,0:27:01.230
unequivocal statement in the long run

0:26:59.490,0:27:02.610
the problem of overpopulation of the

0:27:01.230,0:27:04.049
countries of the south can be fully

0:27:02.610,0:27:06.210
resolved only through their development

0:27:04.049,0:27:08.100
but action to contain the rise of

0:27:06.210,0:27:11.820
population cannot be postponed

0:27:08.100,0:27:15.030
Naiya rear 1990 easier said than done

0:27:11.820,0:27:16.679
nature will provide as they say but what

0:27:15.030,0:27:19.260
percentages of any cure will be higher

0:27:16.679,0:27:21.150
mortality versus lower fertility what

0:27:19.260,0:27:22.770
percentages of lower fertility could be

0:27:21.150,0:27:25.200
due to willful constraint versus

0:27:22.770,0:27:26.880
physiological changes we may have some

0:27:25.200,0:27:29.400
choice in the answers to these questions

0:27:26.880,0:27:31.140
but acts of omission purposeful inaction

0:27:29.400,0:27:33.720
decrease that possibility

0:27:31.140,0:27:35.309
Smail says he is cautiously optimistic

0:27:33.720,0:27:36.990
that humans will take global action

0:27:35.309,0:27:39.690
based on an individual and collective

0:27:36.990,0:27:42.030
concern for bustara t bloomberg and

0:27:39.690,0:27:44.059
summarizes six measures proposed by joel

0:27:42.030,0:27:47.040
coen which have been widely supported

0:27:44.059,0:27:48.690
educate and empower women educate men

0:27:47.040,0:27:51.330
promote the distribution of

0:27:48.690,0:27:53.100
contraceptives Save the Children improve

0:27:51.330,0:27:55.770
the economics in developing countries

0:27:53.100,0:27:57.090
all of the above Abernethy strongly

0:27:55.770,0:27:59.880
supports the empowerment and education

0:27:57.090,0:28:01.679
of women the economic element may need

0:27:59.880,0:28:03.990
refinement to address the opportunity

0:28:01.679,0:28:05.730
model Abernethy and smale in which

0:28:03.990,0:28:08.190
population expands in sync with

0:28:05.730,0:28:09.750
perceived future well-being this is the

0:28:08.190,0:28:11.850
most difficult element of feedback to

0:28:09.750,0:28:13.830
address in my opinion since the poor

0:28:11.850,0:28:16.500
naturally unexpectedly strive for better

0:28:13.830,0:28:17.730
material conditions perhaps sustainable

0:28:16.500,0:28:19.380
development combined with other

0:28:17.730,0:28:21.510
comprehensive measures is the right

0:28:19.380,0:28:23.520
approach traditional development with

0:28:21.510,0:28:25.620
minimal population policy action is a

0:28:23.520,0:28:27.510
recipe for continued suffering by humans

0:28:25.620,0:28:30.419
and the rest of the planet only greater

0:28:27.510,0:28:32.130
in scope and severity boodles sa calls

0:28:30.419,0:28:34.230
for the establishment of a direct to the

0:28:32.130,0:28:36.690
people nonprofit organization financed

0:28:34.230,0:28:38.940
by a consortium of billionaires it would

0:28:36.690,0:28:40.470
be primarily locally staffed and deliver

0:28:38.940,0:28:42.270
women to women reproductive health

0:28:40.470,0:28:43.740
services to the poorest nations of the

0:28:42.270,0:28:46.740
world the Ted Turner

0:28:43.740,0:28:49.169
Bill Gates George Soros Rockefeller

0:28:46.740,0:28:50.790
Packard and many other foundations have

0:28:49.169,0:28:53.070
recognized the importance of this issue

0:28:50.790,0:28:54.900
it may well be that those in meshed in

0:28:53.070,0:28:57.120
fierce economic competition are Blink

0:28:54.900,0:28:58.470
errored by their focus to succeed while

0:28:57.120,0:29:00.150
those who are very rich have the

0:28:58.470,0:29:01.980
opportunity to step back and look

0:29:00.150,0:29:03.750
farther into the future

0:29:01.980,0:29:05.880
trillion dollars in assets pasture

0:29:03.750,0:29:07.580
progeny can't by itself guarantee them a

0:29:05.880,0:29:10.260
peaceful planet clean air and water

0:29:07.580,0:29:12.929
delicious healthy food and the joys of a

0:29:10.260,0:29:14.790
diverse natural environment a primary

0:29:12.929,0:29:16.770
need is for human action to accelerate

0:29:14.790,0:29:19.650
systemic feedback to augment women's

0:29:16.770,0:29:21.690
empowerment health and education the

0:29:19.650,0:29:24.480
technical means already exist to control

0:29:21.690,0:29:25.740
fertility a second and not previously

0:29:24.480,0:29:27.809
mentioned challenge is the need for

0:29:25.740,0:29:29.669
system science methodology to grow

0:29:27.809,0:29:31.890
worldwide and to ultimately replace

0:29:29.669,0:29:34.440
irrational power based approaches to

0:29:31.890,0:29:36.030
social organization overpopulation is

0:29:34.440,0:29:37.860
but one of the global issues we must

0:29:36.030,0:29:41.419
address and the principle of the weak

0:29:37.860,0:29:41.419
link applies to the whole system

0:29:46.470,0:29:48.530
you

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