Critique of the "Systems Paper", Feedback And Dis-Equilibrium In Human O… https://t.co/GrMOKITwFD via @YouTube
— Wiki_Ballot (@wiki_ballot) December 17, 2019
is a Trailer for the premiere of an Animated ( Cartoon, not heated) debate Between Steve B Kurtz, and Roger G Lewis. Steven and Roger have been arguing on the SEEDS Blog of Dr Tim Morgan for several months from the position of two Opposing world Views. The Catastrophist View Point and the Cornucopian Viewpoint. Both claim to be “Systems” Thinkers and Claim scientific rigour in their Analysis of “Reality” and “The Facts”.
This is a Trailer of the Two broad summaries of the Question based upon Stevens systems Paper written in 2000. The Animations and Text to voice conversion have been carried out By Roger Lewis.
The Notes of the sources and reading which I draw upon for my own presentation in Response to Stevens Paper are all contained in this Blog. A full academically cross-referenced and cited Blog Post of my Full presentation will be posted to this Blog after the Premiere this Friday.
https://notthegrubstreetjournal.com/2019/12/10/draft-work-in-progress-notes-for-one-for-the-septics/
0:00:03.690,0:00:08.820 feedback and disequilibrium in human 0:00:06.120,0:00:11.340 overpopulation by Stephen B Kurtz 0:00:08.820,0:00:13.410 counter-current overwhelming evidence 0:00:11.340,0:00:15.419 has engendered a consensus among global 0:00:13.410,0:00:16.670 scientists that the human population 0:00:15.419,0:00:19.320 level and trend are unsustainable 0:00:16.670,0:00:21.150 although we are a part of nature we may 0:00:19.320,0:00:22.529 have some choice in the ongoing process 0:00:21.150,0:00:24.990 of which our numbers are but one 0:00:22.529,0:00:27.330 variable individual social and 0:00:24.990,0:00:29.609 institutional factors are examined and 0:00:27.330,0:00:31.410 policy options are considered evidence 0:00:29.609,0:00:33.360 is given debunking the claim that the 0:00:31.410,0:00:35.790 rich attempt to coerce poor nations to 0:00:33.360,0:00:37.649 reduce fertility carrying capacity and 0:00:35.790,0:00:40.020 optimum population concepts are 0:00:37.649,0:00:42.030 discussed particularly as to equilibrium 0:00:40.020,0:00:45.170 potential prospects for proactive 0:00:42.030,0:00:47.100 success are entertained introduction a 0:00:45.170,0:00:48.719 suitable total for the number of 0:00:47.100,0:00:53.370 citizens cannot be fixed without 0:00:48.719,0:00:55.410 considering the land plato laws v during 0:00:53.370,0:00:56.969 the new millennium many unexpected 0:00:55.410,0:00:59.609 events and conditions will undoubtedly 0:00:56.969,0:01:01.559 surprise our progeny and us perhaps the 0:00:59.609,0:01:02.940 decline of fossil energy sources will be 0:01:01.559,0:01:05.460 rendered benign due to scientific 0:01:02.940,0:01:07.110 discoveries perhaps factor 10 0:01:05.460,0:01:09.060 improvements in technological efficiency 0:01:07.110,0:01:11.340 will aid in the rehabilitation of the 0:01:09.060,0:01:13.320 environment perhaps our species will 0:01:11.340,0:01:15.210 self select for survival tolerances in 0:01:13.320,0:01:17.370 polluted or otherwise altered conditions 0:01:15.210,0:01:20.010 these possibilities are little more than 0:01:17.370,0:01:21.360 speculations we can have a bit more 0:01:20.010,0:01:23.160 confidence that our numbers will not 0:01:21.360,0:01:25.170 continue the growth pattern of the last 0:01:23.160,0:01:27.480 century during which they quadrupled 0:01:25.170,0:01:29.100 this paper will briefly explore why it 0:01:27.480,0:01:30.840 is that a consensus of the world's 0:01:29.100,0:01:32.490 experts believe the rate of growth will 0:01:30.840,0:01:34.620 continue to slow whether or not a 0:01:32.490,0:01:36.330 reduction or crash is likely and if it 0:01:34.620,0:01:37.500 is plausible that stabilization might 0:01:36.330,0:01:40.320 occur at some level other than 0:01:37.500,0:01:42.000 extinction some people claim that humans 0:01:40.320,0:01:43.920 are somehow exempt from the sorts of 0:01:42.000,0:01:46.200 systemic constraints which limit the 0:01:43.920,0:01:47.970 populations of other life forms we 0:01:46.200,0:01:50.130 indeed have managed to extend our range 0:01:47.970,0:01:52.830 into vastly diverse habitats due to our 0:01:50.130,0:01:54.900 adaptive fitness language abstract 0:01:52.830,0:01:56.630 thought and reflective consciousness are 0:01:54.900,0:01:59.400 traits which aided this expansion 0:01:56.630,0:02:02.430 however in a largely closed system 0:01:59.400,0:02:04.560 physical expansion cannot be infinite we 0:02:02.430,0:02:06.060 will explore possible scenarios which 0:02:04.560,0:02:08.819 might lead to stabilization or 0:02:06.060,0:02:10.500 equilibrium projections vary somewhat 0:02:08.819,0:02:12.540 but the next half century is 0:02:10.500,0:02:15.210 conservatively expected to result in a 0:02:12.540,0:02:17.190 50% increase to approximately 9 billion 0:02:15.210,0:02:17.520 of us we will explore the extent to 0:02:17.190,0:02:19.140 which 0:02:17.520,0:02:21.630 it is conceivable that human planning 0:02:19.140,0:02:23.160 could affect the actual outcome the 0:02:21.630,0:02:24.750 first section will provide brief 0:02:23.160,0:02:25.380 evidence that overpopulation is a 0:02:24.750,0:02:27.660 problem 0:02:25.380,0:02:29.070 the fascination with virtual realities 0:02:27.660,0:02:31.440 in the myth of the dematerialization of 0:02:29.070,0:02:33.570 economies are examples of impediments to 0:02:31.440,0:02:35.460 the grasping of this issue the vast 0:02:33.570,0:02:37.290 majority of humans who are unwired know 0:02:35.460,0:02:39.180 they cannot live on bits and bytes even 0:02:37.290,0:02:41.910 if some of us believe otherwise their 0:02:39.180,0:02:44.010 needs include food water and energy 0:02:41.910,0:02:46.140 the second section will outline some 0:02:44.010,0:02:47.700 variables affecting human reproductive 0:02:46.140,0:02:50.130 behavior as positive and negative 0:02:47.700,0:02:52.650 feedback tey he include our genetic 0:02:50.130,0:02:55.010 makeup hardwiring environmental 0:02:52.650,0:02:57.150 conditions socio-economic values 0:02:55.010,0:02:59.370 institutional pressures and what is 0:02:57.150,0:03:00.930 called free will next will be the 0:02:59.370,0:03:03.780 question of what could constitute 0:03:00.930,0:03:05.760 equilibrium carrying capacity connotes a 0:03:03.780,0:03:08.430 maximum number of a species which can 0:03:05.760,0:03:10.470 endure a habitat tolerances in a complex 0:03:08.430,0:03:12.330 ecosystem are variable to inputs and 0:03:10.470,0:03:15.210 internal changes and our most sensitive 0:03:12.330,0:03:17.070 when near maximum thresholds freedom has 0:03:15.210,0:03:19.290 been described as the key human value 0:03:17.070,0:03:21.140 and it is reflected in maximal options 0:03:19.290,0:03:24.840 for future decisions and actions 0:03:21.140,0:03:26.790 Buchanan 1997 equilibrium seems 0:03:24.840,0:03:28.680 inconsistent with carrying capacity 0:03:26.790,0:03:30.570 since the proximity of potential 0:03:28.680,0:03:32.760 constraints would reduce future options 0:03:30.570,0:03:33.930 and maximize the destabilizing risks of 0:03:32.760,0:03:36.300 changing conditions 0:03:33.930,0:03:38.130 if attainable equilibrium at some 0:03:36.300,0:03:40.080 variable optimum level should maximize 0:03:38.130,0:03:43.320 freedom and well-being and minimize 0:03:40.080,0:03:45.240 destabilizing occurrences finally I will 0:03:43.320,0:03:47.070 venture into the realm of speculation to 0:03:45.240,0:03:48.810 consider the prospects for success in 0:03:47.070,0:03:50.970 the self-determination of equilibrium 0:03:48.810,0:03:52.620 peace and the minimization of future 0:03:50.970,0:03:55.280 suffering seem to be related to the 0:03:52.620,0:03:57.630 ultimate outcome what problem 0:03:55.280,0:03:59.400 intensification of production to feed an 0:03:57.630,0:04:01.800 increased population leads to a till 0:03:59.400,0:04:05.880 greater increase in population peter 0:04:01.800,0:04:07.709 Farb 1978 Albert Bartlett emeritus 0:04:05.880,0:04:09.870 professor of physics at the University 0:04:07.709,0:04:12.900 of Colorado has demonstrated that with a 0:04:09.870,0:04:15.030 1% annual growth rate human population 0:04:12.900,0:04:18.540 would in 17,000 years equal all the 0:04:15.030,0:04:20.940 atoms in the universe Bartlett 1996 as a 0:04:18.540,0:04:23.669 reference the last ice age was about 0:04:20.940,0:04:25.260 17,000 years ago we currently are 0:04:23.669,0:04:27.990 growing at a rate around 50 percent 0:04:25.260,0:04:29.669 faster than that Bartlett was responding 0:04:27.990,0:04:31.080 to the claim of the possibility of 1 0:04:29.669,0:04:33.270 percent annual growth of the 0:04:31.080,0:04:35.430 human population for seven billion then 0:04:33.270,0:04:37.710 corrected to seven million years by 0:04:35.430,0:04:39.509 management professor Julian Simon if 0:04:37.710,0:04:42.000 space were the only requirement for a 0:04:39.509,0:04:44.430 healthy enduring habitat the issue would 0:04:42.000,0:04:47.520 be relatively easy to address in short 0:04:44.430,0:04:50.310 sustainable nuns top growth of physical 0:04:47.520,0:04:52.740 systems is an oxymoron following our 0:04:50.310,0:04:55.830 some opinions from diverse sources in a 0:04:52.740,0:04:58.199 letter to me dated October 3rd 1996 US 0:04:55.830,0:04:59.580 Vice President Al Gore stated I consider 0:04:58.199,0:05:01.050 the dramatic growth in the world's 0:04:59.580,0:05:03.330 population to be the greatest challenge 0:05:01.050,0:05:05.159 currently facing the environment the 0:05:03.330,0:05:07.009 effects of this rapid increase are felt 0:05:05.159,0:05:09.330 around the globe starvation 0:05:07.009,0:05:12.150 deforestation and lack of clean water 0:05:09.330,0:05:14.460 are just some of the problems stuart le 0:05:12.150,0:05:17.400 doll former US Secretary of the Interior 0:05:14.460,0:05:18.960 wrote in a recent essay current 0:05:17.400,0:05:21.240 consumption of the two cornerstone 0:05:18.960,0:05:23.279 resources of modern life water and oil 0:05:21.240,0:05:25.289 foreshadow shortages that will cripple 0:05:23.279,0:05:29.279 the economies of many nations if present 0:05:25.289,0:05:31.889 population trends continue we doll 2000 0:05:29.279,0:05:34.409 there is a solid scientific consensus 0:05:31.889,0:05:36.629 evidenced by a 1992 joint statement by 0:05:34.409,0:05:38.969 the British Royal Society in the US 0:05:36.629,0:05:40.259 National Academy of Sciences urging 0:05:38.969,0:05:42.539 world leaders to address human 0:05:40.259,0:05:44.460 overpopulation as well as by the world 0:05:42.539,0:05:48.270 scientists warning to humanity written 0:05:44.460,0:05:50.310 in 1993 and signed by over 1600 say New 0:05:48.270,0:05:52.589 Yor scientists from 70 countries which 0:05:50.310,0:05:55.259 includes the following the earth is 0:05:52.589,0:05:57.330 finite its ability to absorb wastes and 0:05:55.259,0:05:59.159 destructive effluent is finite its 0:05:57.330,0:06:01.440 ability to provide food and energy is 0:05:59.159,0:06:03.330 finite its ability to provide for 0:06:01.440,0:06:05.310 growing numbers of people is finite and 0:06:03.330,0:06:07.860 we are fast approaching many of the 0:06:05.310,0:06:09.690 Earth's limits pressures resulting from 0:06:07.860,0:06:11.279 unrestrained population growth put 0:06:09.690,0:06:12.839 demands on the natural world that can 0:06:11.279,0:06:15.360 overwhelm any efforts to achieve a 0:06:12.839,0:06:17.219 sustainable future if we are to halt the 0:06:15.360,0:06:19.710 destruction of our environment we must 0:06:17.219,0:06:21.930 accept limits to that growth no more 0:06:19.710,0:06:23.460 than a few decades remain before the 0:06:21.930,0:06:25.259 chance to avert the threats we now 0:06:23.460,0:06:27.150 confront will be lost in the prospects 0:06:25.259,0:06:30.539 for Humanity immeasurably diminished 0:06:27.150,0:06:32.789 we must stabilize population we must 0:06:30.539,0:06:33.870 ensure sexual equality and guarantee 0:06:32.789,0:06:36.629 women control over their own 0:06:33.870,0:06:38.310 reproductive decisions many people 0:06:36.629,0:06:39.990 besides world leaders and scientists 0:06:38.310,0:06:42.750 understand the seriousness of our 0:06:39.990,0:06:43.770 predicament John H Adams executive 0:06:42.750,0:06:44.760 director of the Natural Resources 0:06:43.770,0:06:47.010 Defense 0:06:44.760,0:06:49.140 council an organization not active in 0:06:47.010,0:06:50.910 population Affairs began an essay 0:06:49.140,0:06:53.490 entitled what matters most in the amicus 0:06:50.910,0:06:55.110 journal there is no single thing more 0:06:53.490,0:06:57.030 significant for the future of the world 0:06:55.110,0:07:01.020 than the fact of human population growth 0:06:57.030,0:07:03.870 Adams 1997 author of Pulitzer 0:07:01.020,0:07:05.960 prize-winning Guns Germs and Steel Jared 0:07:03.870,0:07:08.430 Diamond wrote in the third chimpanzee a 0:07:05.960,0:07:10.790 nuclear holocaust is certain to prove 0:07:08.430,0:07:12.810 disastrous but it isn't happening now an 0:07:10.790,0:07:14.760 environmental Holocaust is equally 0:07:12.810,0:07:16.140 certain to prove disastrous but it 0:07:14.760,0:07:20.040 differs in that it is already well 0:07:16.140,0:07:21.930 underway Dimond 1992 diamond may 0:07:20.040,0:07:25.080 unfortunately underestimate the risk of 0:07:21.930,0:07:26.700 a quick violent demise the University of 0:07:25.080,0:07:28.980 Toronto's peace and Conflict Studies 0:07:26.700,0:07:31.710 program has done extensive research on 0:07:28.980,0:07:33.630 factors influencing violent conflict one 0:07:31.710,0:07:36.200 area of the program is the project on 0:07:33.630,0:07:39.240 environment population and security 0:07:36.200,0:07:41.250 scarcities depletion and degradation of 0:07:39.240,0:07:43.110 resources such as potable water are part 0:07:41.250,0:07:45.210 of the feedback loops of human activity 0:07:43.110,0:07:45.840 habitat systems which impact violent 0:07:45.210,0:07:50.940 conflict 0:07:45.840,0:07:52.950 Homer Dixon at al 1993 don't worry be 0:07:50.940,0:07:55.260 happy' is sadly no longer applicable to 0:07:52.950,0:07:57.600 our predicament there are some though 0:07:55.260,0:08:00.210 who dismissed these concerns as fiction 0:07:57.600,0:08:02.850 they point to past analyzes air like 0:08:00.210,0:08:04.260 1968 which contains some incorrect 0:08:02.850,0:08:06.300 judgments as to the timing of 0:08:04.260,0:08:08.850 approaching limits evidence is strong 0:08:06.300,0:08:10.140 though that the trends are proceeding as 0:08:08.850,0:08:12.390 the envision if we believe the 0:08:10.140,0:08:14.160 scientific consensus the naysayers 0:08:12.390,0:08:16.200 include those like the late Julian Simon 0:08:14.160,0:08:17.760 and reason magazines Ronald Bailey who 0:08:16.200,0:08:19.680 conveniently ignores issues like 0:08:17.760,0:08:21.240 declining stocks of fish which are to be 0:08:19.680,0:08:23.370 shared by a quarter of a million net 0:08:21.240,0:08:25.980 additional people daily Bailey 0:08:23.370,0:08:28.410 2000 the UN has been at the forefront 0:08:25.980,0:08:30.810 and seeking solutions for overpopulation 0:08:28.410,0:08:32.970 the poorest nations are struggling to 0:08:30.810,0:08:34.770 address the issue but aid promised by 0:08:32.970,0:08:37.020 wealthy nations has been slow in coming 0:08:34.770,0:08:38.970 India recently announced a National 0:08:37.020,0:08:41.400 Population policy in China is still 0:08:38.970,0:08:43.290 struggling with the issue denial that 0:08:41.400,0:08:45.540 overpopulation exists and is a serious 0:08:43.290,0:08:47.130 problem led biologist Garret Hardin to 0:08:45.540,0:08:49.620 write a new book last year called the 0:08:47.130,0:08:51.290 ostrich factor suffice it to say that I 0:08:49.620,0:08:54.150 view the evidence is overwhelming 0:08:51.290,0:08:55.950 feedback the more we examine the 0:08:54.150,0:08:58.170 relationships between population 0:08:55.950,0:08:58.620 resources and the environment the 0:08:58.170,0:09:00.840 stronger 0:08:58.620,0:09:02.700 the connections appear doctor Nafees 0:09:00.840,0:09:05.210 Sadiq in an address to the UN conference 0:09:02.700,0:09:09.270 on Environment and development Geneva 0:09:05.210,0:09:11.700 1991 individual / social / environmental 0:09:09.270,0:09:13.650 the widely accepted theory called the 0:09:11.700,0:09:15.210 demographic transition holds that upon 0:09:13.650,0:09:17.340 reaching a secure and materially 0:09:15.210,0:09:19.770 comfortable lifestyle birth rates tend 0:09:17.340,0:09:21.630 to decline the case histories of North 0:09:19.770,0:09:23.340 America and Western Europe are used as 0:09:21.630,0:09:26.010 evidence for the theories of validity in 0:09:23.340,0:09:27.890 some cases correlations have occurred 0:09:26.010,0:09:30.480 and causal links may seem obvious 0:09:27.890,0:09:32.040 however many physical and social 0:09:30.480,0:09:34.590 scientists are more rigorous when 0:09:32.040,0:09:36.360 seeking causal evidence Virginia Byrne 0:09:34.590,0:09:38.040 Athiya professor of psychiatry at 0:09:36.360,0:09:40.260 Vanderbilt University Medical School 0:09:38.040,0:09:41.490 argues convincingly that the perception 0:09:40.260,0:09:44.670 of the commencement of better economic 0:09:41.490,0:09:47.130 times material well-being leads to 0:09:44.670,0:09:50.190 higher fertility rates she gives several 0:09:47.130,0:09:52.740 good examples in times of privation in 0:09:50.190,0:09:54.780 France prior to the revolution a sense 0:09:52.740,0:09:56.660 of limits promoted reproductive caution 0:09:54.780,0:09:58.890 and small families were the norm 0:09:56.660,0:10:00.810 prosperity induced high fertility rates 0:09:58.890,0:10:03.210 in Ireland after the introduction of the 0:10:00.810,0:10:07.530 potato and in Turkey when families 0:10:03.210,0:10:09.330 received land Abernethy 1994 even when a 0:10:07.530,0:10:10.770 demographic transition is claimed to 0:10:09.330,0:10:12.900 have occurred there could be several 0:10:10.770,0:10:14.850 generations between supposed cause and 0:10:12.900,0:10:16.500 effect making the number of variables 0:10:14.850,0:10:18.990 too numerous and complex to yield 0:10:16.500,0:10:21.240 analytic certainty several generations 0:10:18.990,0:10:22.770 of high fertility like those in the US 0:10:21.240,0:10:24.570 during the first half of the 20th 0:10:22.770,0:10:26.490 century could result in a rapid 0:10:24.570,0:10:28.980 population increase after which a 0:10:26.490,0:10:30.840 slowdown in births occurs abernethie 0:10:28.980,0:10:33.360 claims that the rise of the u.s. is an 0:10:30.840,0:10:35.490 economic power with concomitant optimism 0:10:33.360,0:10:37.410 for well-being by its citizens was key 0:10:35.490,0:10:39.390 to the high birth rates she sees 0:10:37.410,0:10:41.880 uncertainty about real wages and job 0:10:39.390,0:10:43.830 security combined with the high costs of 0:10:41.880,0:10:45.570 education and health care as factors in 0:10:43.830,0:10:48.180 the slowdown in u.s. fertility in the 0:10:45.570,0:10:50.580 latter part of the century humans do not 0:10:48.180,0:10:52.530 easily embrace this sort of evidence but 0:10:50.580,0:10:54.180 we must continue to examine the possible 0:10:52.530,0:10:56.670 causes of our actions if we are to 0:10:54.180,0:10:58.620 pursue effective solutions many animals 0:10:56.670,0:11:00.480 exhibit reduced fertility and/or lower 0:10:58.620,0:11:02.310 survival rates of young offspring well 0:11:00.480,0:11:04.770 in advance of serious food shortages 0:11:02.310,0:11:07.020 this is an adaptation for survival 0:11:04.770,0:11:08.460 humans exhibit similar patterns when 0:11:07.020,0:11:10.890 stressed by overcrowding and 0:11:08.460,0:11:12.540 environmental scarcities d-h stop 0:11:10.890,0:11:14.940 discussed this at length and I 0:11:12.540,0:11:16.770 continued by quoting the predicted 0:11:14.940,0:11:18.810 catastrophe of the world population 0:11:16.770,0:11:20.610 increasing by geometrical progression to 0:11:18.810,0:11:23.280 the point of starvation is unlikely to 0:11:20.610,0:11:25.800 occur it will be four stalled if not by 0:11:23.280,0:11:27.990 conscious human design by physiological 0:11:25.800,0:11:30.300 mechanisms which have evolved to obviate 0:11:27.990,0:11:31.770 such a calamity this says not to 0:11:30.300,0:11:34.470 minimize the fact that these mechanisms 0:11:31.770,0:11:36.150 themselves are highly unpleasant nature 0:11:34.470,0:11:38.760 prescribes happiness when it has 0:11:36.150,0:11:40.920 survival value to man nevertheless is 0:11:38.760,0:11:42.780 given an answer we need not wait for the 0:11:40.920,0:11:45.540 physiological killers and neighbors to 0:11:42.780,0:11:47.340 come upon us it should not however be 0:11:45.540,0:11:48.750 beyond the capacity of man to develop 0:11:47.340,0:11:50.640 cultural methods of regulating 0:11:48.750,0:11:55.200 population numbers which do not involve 0:11:50.640,0:11:57.090 distress and unhappiness stott 1962 bill 0:11:55.200,0:11:59.610 reese well-known for developing the 0:11:57.090,0:12:01.290 ecological footprint concept noted ten 0:11:59.610,0:12:03.360 years ago the relevance of work by 0:12:01.290,0:12:05.610 prigogine and Stander's Crutchfield 0:12:03.360,0:12:07.740 Adelle and Palmer regarding thresholds 0:12:05.610,0:12:09.540 of unpredictability the systemic 0:12:07.740,0:12:10.980 feedback that will affect human numbers 0:12:09.540,0:12:12.840 with or without our intent may be 0:12:10.980,0:12:15.060 unexpected and timing and intensity 0:12:12.840,0:12:17.550 worth noting here is the principle of 0:12:15.060,0:12:19.080 the weak link as expressed by Reese it 0:12:17.550,0:12:20.700 should be understood that while human 0:12:19.080,0:12:23.040 society depends on many ecological 0:12:20.700,0:12:24.930 resources and functions for survival 0:12:23.040,0:12:26.850 carrying capacity is ultimately 0:12:24.930,0:12:30.240 determined by the single vital resource 0:12:26.850,0:12:32.400 or function and least supply Reese 1990 0:12:30.240,0:12:34.950 there are well entrenched historically 0:12:32.400,0:12:37.440 based values which provide disincentives 0:12:34.950,0:12:38.970 to reducing fertility only children were 0:12:37.440,0:12:41.310 thought to be deprived by the lack of 0:12:38.970,0:12:42.990 siblings this folk wisdom is still 0:12:41.310,0:12:45.180 widely believed despite the lack of 0:12:42.990,0:12:47.400 conclusive supporting evidence large 0:12:45.180,0:12:49.800 families are accepted by many societies 0:12:47.400,0:12:51.480 as a joy or a blessing when farm labor 0:12:49.800,0:12:53.640 was important for economic viability 0:12:51.480,0:12:55.830 this might have reflected rational 0:12:53.640,0:12:58.020 criteria in modern industrialized 0:12:55.830,0:13:00.720 nations agriculture depends more on 0:12:58.020,0:13:02.970 energy chemicals and technology than on 0:13:00.720,0:13:05.340 farm hands and a very small percentage 0:13:02.970,0:13:07.290 of families is engaged in farming in 0:13:05.340,0:13:09.000 many countries the family farm has been 0:13:07.290,0:13:11.640 subdivided among offspring for 0:13:09.000,0:13:14.100 generations resulting in small unviable 0:13:11.640,0:13:16.110 plots feedback of this nature can be 0:13:14.100,0:13:18.390 mythical but nonetheless is still 0:13:16.110,0:13:20.190 effective in societies with high 0:13:18.390,0:13:22.080 mortality rates for infants and youth 0:13:20.190,0:13:24.360 and lack of institutional old age 0:13:22.080,0:13:26.130 security poor families need to produce 0:13:24.360,0:13:26.400 children as their only realistic means 0:13:26.130,0:13:28.530 of 0:13:26.400,0:13:30.030 attempting to secure their future here 0:13:28.530,0:13:31.560 the biological constraint of the 0:13:30.030,0:13:33.270 prospect of inadequate food is 0:13:31.560,0:13:35.730 challenged by the human need for future 0:13:33.270,0:13:37.890 security this seems a most basic example 0:13:35.730,0:13:40.490 of the human predicament called by the 0:13:37.890,0:13:43.740 Club of Rome the global problematic 0:13:40.490,0:13:45.570 policy options what types of actions 0:13:43.740,0:13:47.850 might prove useful in a humane attempt 0:13:45.570,0:13:49.380 to influence fertility the acceptance 0:13:47.850,0:13:51.000 that we have some sphere of free will 0:13:49.380,0:13:53.400 seems necessary to continue this 0:13:51.000,0:13:56.130 exploration just how much is not easy to 0:13:53.400,0:13:57.870 say sociobiology x' premises that 0:13:56.130,0:13:59.910 individuals of all species including 0:13:57.870,0:14:01.470 humans are genetically predisposed to 0:13:59.910,0:14:04.080 act in ways that maximize their 0:14:01.470,0:14:05.940 inclusive fitness axiomatically every 0:14:04.080,0:14:08.010 living individual had ancestors that 0:14:05.940,0:14:12.810 succeeded so most of us carry genes 0:14:08.010,0:14:14.640 impelling us Abernethy 1993 it is not my 0:14:12.810,0:14:16.650 intention to attempt to classify or 0:14:14.640,0:14:18.540 divide human behavior into determined 0:14:16.650,0:14:20.660 movements or free actions or any 0:14:18.540,0:14:23.370 percentage combination and of the two 0:14:20.660,0:14:25.350 tendencies or predispositions can be 0:14:23.370,0:14:27.780 accepted as indicators of probabilities 0:14:25.350,0:14:30.060 or expectations we plan and make choices 0:14:27.780,0:14:32.340 about our role in sexual reproduction to 0:14:30.060,0:14:33.990 greater or lesser degrees anslee cole 0:14:32.340,0:14:36.120 has delineated three categories for 0:14:33.990,0:14:38.160 successful intentional implementation of 0:14:36.120,0:14:40.050 reduced fertility first is the 0:14:38.160,0:14:41.610 actualization and realization that both 0:14:40.050,0:14:41.910 parties indeed have a choice in the 0:14:41.610,0:14:44.040 matter 0:14:41.910,0:14:46.350 second is that they perceive benefits 0:14:44.040,0:14:47.940 from the resulting smaller family third 0:14:46.350,0:14:49.410 is the availability and knowledge of 0:14:47.940,0:14:54.060 various means of implementing their 0:14:49.410,0:14:55.470 choice Cole 1989 dr. John R weeks is the 0:14:54.060,0:14:58.620 director of the International population 0:14:55.470,0:15:00.840 Center at San Diego State University he 0:14:58.620,0:15:02.580 develops Cole's concepts into policies 0:15:00.840,0:15:04.920 with direct and indirect impacts on 0:15:02.580,0:15:07.170 reproductive behavior from a systems 0:15:04.920,0:15:09.630 perspective these constitute feedback 0:15:07.170,0:15:11.520 direct policies include full legal 0:15:09.630,0:15:13.790 rights for women payments for having 0:15:11.520,0:15:16.560 fewer children higher rather than lower 0:15:13.790,0:15:18.900 taxes per child legalization of 0:15:16.560,0:15:21.270 contraceptive technologies abortion and 0:15:18.900,0:15:23.000 sterilization and availability of family 0:15:21.270,0:15:25.290 planning services and local outlets 0:15:23.000,0:15:27.480 examples of indirect policies are 0:15:25.290,0:15:29.760 improved secular education increased 0:15:27.480,0:15:31.400 economic opportunities for women lower 0:15:29.760,0:15:33.870 infant and child mortality rates 0:15:31.400,0:15:35.670 community birth quotas and public 0:15:33.870,0:15:39.190 campaigns promoting knowledge and use of 0:15:35.670,0:15:40.810 birth control weeks 1990 0:15:39.190,0:15:42.490 further discussion of possible planned 0:15:40.810,0:15:45.210 intervention will be undertaken in the 0:15:42.490,0:15:48.940 final section of this paper prospects 0:15:45.210,0:15:51.190 institutional obstacles government most 0:15:48.940,0:15:53.050 governments even when well-meaning have 0:15:51.190,0:15:55.360 discovered deficit financing and become 0:15:53.050,0:15:56.980 addicted to revenue growth the addition 0:15:55.360,0:15:58.630 of interest results in larger total 0:15:56.980,0:16:01.180 future payments than the amount of the 0:15:58.630,0:16:03.400 original loan this inevitably results in 0:16:01.180,0:16:05.890 a race to keep up as new borrowings are 0:16:03.400,0:16:07.120 added on a regular basis with the onset 0:16:05.890,0:16:09.070 of declining fertility and 0:16:07.120,0:16:11.020 demographically aging populations in 0:16:09.070,0:16:12.640 many developed nations emigration 0:16:11.020,0:16:14.620 increases are sought to keep the economy 0:16:12.640,0:16:16.750 growing and to expand payments into the 0:16:14.620,0:16:19.240 pension system there have been attempts 0:16:16.750,0:16:20.800 in Germany and France among others to 0:16:19.240,0:16:23.230 stimulate higher fertility by 0:16:20.800,0:16:25.720 native-born women this may reflect fear 0:16:23.230,0:16:27.550 of cultural delusion by societies and is 0:16:25.720,0:16:29.140 evidenced by recent political victories 0:16:27.550,0:16:31.810 by advocates of restricted immigration 0:16:29.140,0:16:33.700 if there were a national wealth surplus 0:16:31.810,0:16:35.620 rather than a debt growth would not only 0:16:33.700,0:16:38.320 be unnecessary it might be undesirable 0:16:35.620,0:16:40.060 old age security would be covered and 0:16:38.320,0:16:43.660 remaining wealth could be shared by 0:16:40.060,0:16:45.130 fewer people business globalization has 0:16:43.660,0:16:47.470 been accompanied by the dominance of 0:16:45.130,0:16:49.210 multinational corporations it is the 0:16:47.470,0:16:51.130 mandate of corporations to deliver 0:16:49.210,0:16:53.110 maximum profits to shareholders and 0:16:51.130,0:16:54.850 managers seek to maximize their own 0:16:53.110,0:16:57.340 income and security by achieving the 0:16:54.850,0:16:59.620 goal it is not rational for corporations 0:16:57.340,0:17:01.930 or any business to seek shrinking 0:16:59.620,0:17:03.850 markets for goods or services so the 0:17:01.930,0:17:06.610 system has a built-in growth imperative 0:17:03.850,0:17:08.319 at the same time labor shortages would 0:17:06.610,0:17:10.810 give bargaining power to workers and 0:17:08.319,0:17:13.060 whoa uld likely increased costs to 0:17:10.810,0:17:14.949 business for decades businesses have 0:17:13.060,0:17:16.600 been relocating facilities to areas 0:17:14.949,0:17:19.180 where labor is abundant and therefore 0:17:16.600,0:17:21.160 cheaper a lack of necessary skills may 0:17:19.180,0:17:23.079 be a short-term constraint but a 0:17:21.160,0:17:25.600 declining population is generally not 0:17:23.079,0:17:27.520 appealing to businesses now let's have a 0:17:25.600,0:17:29.860 look at how a Chinese expert perceives 0:17:27.520,0:17:32.080 this Jones are wrong his deputy director 0:17:29.860,0:17:34.480 of China population welfare foundation 0:17:32.080,0:17:35.460 in Beijing he wrote a report to the 3rd 0:17:34.480,0:17:37.090 Conference of the International 0:17:35.460,0:17:38.740 Consortium for the study of 0:17:37.090,0:17:41.380 environmental security from which I 0:17:38.740,0:17:43.300 quote China is caught in a vicious cycle 0:17:41.380,0:17:45.430 of swelling population and diminishing 0:17:43.300,0:17:48.250 resources economic growth is the goal of 0:17:45.430,0:17:50.170 China's industrial policy however rapid 0:17:48.250,0:17:53.510 population growth lays the economic 0:17:50.170,0:17:55.340 growth that occurs Sarang 1994 0:17:53.510,0:17:57.110 it appears that it is possible for 0:17:55.340,0:17:58.669 business leaders to catch on that there 0:17:57.110,0:18:00.590 is a point of diminishing return to 0:17:58.669,0:18:02.600 population linked economic growth 0:18:00.590,0:18:05.150 I expect this feedback to spread 0:18:02.600,0:18:08.660 globally like a viral meme as systemic 0:18:05.150,0:18:11.330 instability increases religion there are 0:18:08.660,0:18:12.919 many religious and ethnic beliefs which 0:18:11.330,0:18:13.429 can influence human reproductive 0:18:12.919,0:18:15.710 behavior 0:18:13.429,0:18:18.440 some examples include Muslim sex 0:18:15.710,0:18:20.750 Orthodox Jewish and Catholic doctrine 0:18:18.440,0:18:22.309 the most extreme example that I'm aware 0:18:20.750,0:18:24.500 of is the Mormon belief that 12 0:18:22.309,0:18:26.809 offspring by a man places him closest to 0:18:24.500,0:18:28.429 God groups at war of overtly used 0:18:26.809,0:18:30.410 competitive breeding as an alternate 0:18:28.429,0:18:32.540 method of conquest and rape has been 0:18:30.410,0:18:34.309 used as part of ethnic cleansing other 0:18:32.540,0:18:36.650 than obscure suicide sex 0:18:34.309,0:18:37.940 I know of no religions which advocate a 0:18:36.650,0:18:40.130 reduction in the number of their 0:18:37.940,0:18:42.530 adherents some might recognize that 0:18:40.130,0:18:44.030 overpopulation is a problem this could 0:18:42.530,0:18:45.620 present a dilemma to them as they seek 0:18:44.030,0:18:47.780 to spread their version of the truth and 0:18:45.620,0:18:49.669 the good the dalai lama gave a speech in 0:18:47.780,0:18:51.080 new zealand a few years ago where it was 0:18:49.669,0:18:52.820 reported that he said the world's 0:18:51.080,0:18:56.210 population problem would benefit from 0:18:52.820,0:18:58.130 more priests nuns gays and lesbians i 0:18:56.210,0:19:00.290 interpret this as a touch of humor 0:18:58.130,0:19:03.980 applied to a serious problem by a wise 0:19:00.290,0:19:05.840 leader equilibrium all optimum must lie 0:19:03.980,0:19:08.809 between the minimum viable population 0:19:05.840,0:19:10.070 size MVP and the biophysical carrying 0:19:08.809,0:19:12.620 capacity of the planet 0:19:10.070,0:19:15.020 Gretchen see daily a air lick and Pierre 0:19:12.620,0:19:16.309 lick the above range is wide enough to 0:19:15.020,0:19:18.890 drive all the vehicles in the world 0:19:16.309,0:19:21.559 through how might we narrow it the 0:19:18.890,0:19:22.850 author's stayed in the same paper social 0:19:21.559,0:19:24.710 preferences are critical because 0:19:22.850,0:19:26.540 achieving any target size requires 0:19:24.710,0:19:28.790 establishing social policies to 0:19:26.540,0:19:30.980 influence fertility rates human 0:19:28.790,0:19:33.140 population sizes have never and will 0:19:30.980,0:19:35.510 never automatically equilibrate at some 0:19:33.140,0:19:37.070 level there is no feedback mechanism 0:19:35.510,0:19:39.080 that will lead to perfectly maintained 0:19:37.070,0:19:43.970 identical crude birth and death rates 0:19:39.080,0:19:45.830 daily at al 1994 although I agree with 0:19:43.970,0:19:47.690 the need for a planning it seems like a 0:19:45.830,0:19:49.940 conceptual error to place it somehow 0:19:47.690,0:19:51.830 outside the feedback system again 0:19:49.940,0:19:53.600 ignoring the freewill issue it is not 0:19:51.830,0:19:55.160 reasonable in my opinion to somehow 0:19:53.600,0:19:57.530 excise our planning from the ecosystem 0:19:55.160,0:19:59.179 of which we are a part recall stats 0:19:57.530,0:20:01.490 point about natural governors of 0:19:59.179,0:20:04.159 fertility our planning could be part of 0:20:01.490,0:20:05.990 our adaptive fitness the paper goes on 0:20:04.159,0:20:07.250 to state criteria for choosing optimum 0:20:05.990,0:20:09.500 population size 0:20:07.250,0:20:11.240 first is a desired minimum quality of 0:20:09.500,0:20:13.730 life balanced by the impacts to the 0:20:11.240,0:20:15.350 ecosystem for sustaining it second is an 0:20:13.730,0:20:17.419 acceptance that material wealth will 0:20:15.350,0:20:19.580 always be unequally divided among humans 0:20:17.419,0:20:21.710 and the resulting need for a cushion or 0:20:19.580,0:20:24.260 excess of continuously available 0:20:21.710,0:20:26.090 per-capita resources they include a 0:20:24.260,0:20:27.980 consideration of waste reprocessing 0:20:26.090,0:20:30.169 without toxification of the system 0:20:27.980,0:20:32.539 next is the value of cultural diversity 0:20:30.169,0:20:34.340 they believe Geographic dispersion 0:20:32.539,0:20:36.559 requires a certain minimum amount of 0:20:34.340,0:20:39.169 population I think this is a prehistoric 0:20:36.559,0:20:41.690 era consideration and not meaningful now 0:20:39.169,0:20:43.909 rather it seems that an excessive people 0:20:41.690,0:20:44.990 combined with globalization results in 0:20:43.909,0:20:47.360 cultural extinctions 0:20:44.990,0:20:49.250 I find this categorically different than 0:20:47.360,0:20:51.260 the prior criteria believing that 0:20:49.250,0:20:53.500 adaptation and evolution will result in 0:20:51.260,0:20:56.059 ongoing cultural changes in any event a 0:20:53.500,0:20:57.919 critical mass distributional criteria 0:20:56.059,0:20:59.539 similarly perplexes me although i 0:20:57.919,0:21:02.059 understand the cultural value of 0:20:59.539,0:21:03.860 urbanization these two criteria seem 0:21:02.059,0:21:06.110 more like value judgments based on the 0:21:03.860,0:21:08.600 cultural biases of the authors who live 0:21:06.110,0:21:11.120 in the developed world next is the need 0:21:08.600,0:21:13.400 to protect biodiversity obviously each 0:21:11.120,0:21:16.010 human displaces or alters habitats 0:21:13.400,0:21:17.929 potentially useful for other life forms 0:21:16.010,0:21:21.169 with the partial exception of human 0:21:17.929,0:21:23.150 parasites biodiversity they explained is 0:21:21.169,0:21:24.919 anthropocentric ly valuable as part of 0:21:23.150,0:21:27.049 our habitat and is necessary for our 0:21:24.919,0:21:29.030 health it also provides aesthetic 0:21:27.049,0:21:30.860 pleasure they then add the ethical 0:21:29.030,0:21:33.440 responsibilities of humans to minimize 0:21:30.860,0:21:35.600 species loss cultural bias seems 0:21:33.440,0:21:36.919 involved in the latter two elements but 0:21:35.600,0:21:39.770 it is arguable that they reflect 0:21:36.919,0:21:41.480 universal human values the authors then 0:21:39.770,0:21:43.520 add the key value of human freedom that 0:21:41.480,0:21:45.679 was mentioned in the introduction in 0:21:43.520,0:21:47.480 general we would choose a population 0:21:45.679,0:21:49.220 size that maximizes very broad 0:21:47.480,0:21:53.809 environmental and social options for 0:21:49.220,0:21:54.830 individuals daily at al 1994 for a 0:21:53.809,0:21:56.720 different perspective 0:21:54.830,0:21:58.760 let's turn again to John's Arang on 0:21:56.720,0:22:01.100 China's population according to the 0:21:58.760,0:22:03.380 China Academy of Sciences and based on 0:22:01.100,0:22:06.080 estimated land resources the optimum 0:22:03.380,0:22:11.809 population in China is 950 million now 0:22:06.080,0:22:14.059 and 1.16 billion by 2019 94 serangan 0:22:11.809,0:22:16.520 states that China's carrying capacity 0:22:14.059,0:22:18.049 also based on land resources is no more 0:22:16.520,0:22:20.330 than 1.6 billion 0:22:18.049,0:22:21.080 he believes that serious environmental 0:22:20.330,0:22:22.490 and social 0:22:21.080,0:22:24.440 problems exist and will worsen as 0:22:22.490,0:22:26.300 China's population first exceeds the 0:22:24.440,0:22:29.030 optimum level and then the carrying 0:22:26.300,0:22:31.610 capacity level maybe China expected to 0:22:29.030,0:22:34.160 add some land resources between 1994 and 0:22:31.610,0:22:36.440 2000 what other variables could cause 0:22:34.160,0:22:38.960 its optimum population to go up by seven 0:22:36.440,0:22:41.660 percent in six years no answer is given 0:22:38.960,0:22:43.580 in the report Nikolas Blow and Bergen 0:22:41.660,0:22:45.680 Nobel winner in physics and Harvard 0:22:43.580,0:22:47.150 professor said in a presentation two 0:22:45.680,0:22:48.950 colleagues would a total world 0:22:47.150,0:22:51.050 population of about 1 billion has 0:22:48.950,0:22:53.210 existed two hundred years ago represent 0:22:51.050,0:22:55.490 a reasonable compromise between quantity 0:22:53.210,0:22:58.460 and quality of human life the answer 0:22:55.490,0:23:02.030 clearly involves value judgments blow in 0:22:58.460,0:23:03.890 bergen 1996 J Kenneth Smail 0:23:02.030,0:23:06.530 professor of anthropology and sociology 0:23:03.890,0:23:08.330 at Kenyon College in Ohio has an 0:23:06.530,0:23:09.740 argument for a sustainable optimum of 0:23:08.330,0:23:11.660 approximately two billion by the 0:23:09.740,0:23:13.580 beginning of the 23rd century 0:23:11.660,0:23:15.800 he presents much evidence that mere 0:23:13.580,0:23:17.630 stabilization during the 21st century 0:23:15.800,0:23:18.350 will result in a future demographic 0:23:17.630,0:23:23.150 catastrophe 0:23:18.350,0:23:24.890 Smail 1995 I see no clear way given a 0:23:23.150,0:23:27.230 current cultural economic and 0:23:24.890,0:23:29.210 geophysical variables of societies on 0:23:27.230,0:23:30.710 earth to expect a consensus for 0:23:29.210,0:23:33.860 approximating an optimum human 0:23:30.710,0:23:36.020 population stabilization or equilibrium 0:23:33.860,0:23:38.120 if it is to be realized any time soon 0:23:36.020,0:23:40.940 would seem to be based on fragmented 0:23:38.120,0:23:42.860 actions or unintentional outcomes what 0:23:40.940,0:23:44.090 is obvious from my investigations is 0:23:42.860,0:23:45.950 that most concerned with the issue 0:23:44.090,0:23:49.000 believe that the desired direction for 0:23:45.950,0:23:50.870 human population is downward prospects 0:23:49.000,0:23:52.940 nobody knows if a steady-state 0:23:50.870,0:23:53.660 population could be reached by the year 0:23:52.940,0:23:55.700 2050 0:23:53.660,0:23:58.250 perhaps a period of negative population 0:23:55.700,0:24:01.420 growth could be envisioned hopefully not 0:23:58.250,0:24:04.490 be caused by war famine and pestilence 0:24:01.420,0:24:06.050 blow in Bergen we have discussed a 0:24:04.490,0:24:08.270 variety of influences on human 0:24:06.050,0:24:10.490 reproduction included were inherent 0:24:08.270,0:24:12.050 predispositions and individual responses 0:24:10.490,0:24:15.200 to environmental and social conditions 0:24:12.050,0:24:17.270 we also explored possible policy options 0:24:15.200,0:24:19.850 which many believe have the potential to 0:24:17.270,0:24:21.770 influence our demographic future besides 0:24:19.850,0:24:23.930 the institutional obstacles mentioned 0:24:21.770,0:24:25.970 there are some common misconceptions by 0:24:23.930,0:24:28.730 many well-meaning people I will mention 0:24:25.970,0:24:30.710 only one which if sufficiently countered 0:24:28.730,0:24:33.350 might have better more humane resolution 0:24:30.710,0:24:34.590 the environment and social justice are 0:24:33.350,0:24:35.970 issues which have 0:24:34.590,0:24:37.260 showing support among those able to 0:24:35.970,0:24:39.900 think about more than their immediate 0:24:37.260,0:24:41.190 material needs advocates seem certain 0:24:39.900,0:24:43.230 that their own issue is the most 0:24:41.190,0:24:45.570 important one but many failed to 0:24:43.230,0:24:47.159 question its sufficiency a typical 0:24:45.570,0:24:49.020 response to the introduction of the 0:24:47.159,0:24:50.549 overpopulation factor is that the rich 0:24:49.020,0:24:52.260 should reduce their consumption and 0:24:50.549,0:24:53.940 waste production instead of chiding the 0:24:52.260,0:24:55.770 poor people of the planet this 0:24:53.940,0:24:57.270 demonstrates a lack of knowledge that 0:24:55.770,0:24:59.250 the port have been clamoring for our aid 0:24:57.270,0:25:00.860 in population matters and that they have 0:24:59.250,0:25:02.760 banded together to help themselves 0:25:00.860,0:25:04.409 provision of such aid is not a 0:25:02.760,0:25:07.049 substitute for encouraging conservation 0:25:04.409,0:25:09.480 and cleaner economies at home there is 0:25:07.049,0:25:13.500 no either slash or involved both are 0:25:09.480,0:25:15.630 desirable in 1989 as verified by the UN 0:25:13.500,0:25:17.340 Population Fund the following countries 0:25:15.630,0:25:19.200 signed a statement urging early 0:25:17.340,0:25:23.070 stabilization of human population 0:25:19.200,0:25:26.270 Austria Bangladesh Barbados Booton 0:25:23.070,0:25:30.059 Botswana Cape Verde China Colombia 0:25:26.270,0:25:32.520 Cyprus Dominica Dominican Republic Egypt 0:25:30.059,0:25:36.179 Fiji Grenada Guinea Bissau 0:25:32.520,0:25:41.100 Haiti Iceland India Indonesia Jamaica 0:25:36.179,0:25:45.360 Japan Jordan Kenya rep of Korea Liberia 0:25:41.100,0:25:48.690 Malta Mauritius Morocco Nepal Nigeria 0:25:45.360,0:25:52.260 Panama Philippines Rwanda Senegal 0:25:48.690,0:25:54.630 Seychelle Singapore Sri Lanka Saint 0:25:52.260,0:25:57.299 Kitts Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent 0:25:54.630,0:26:01.470 and the Grenadines Sudan Thailand 0:25:57.299,0:26:03.840 Tunisia Vanuatu and Zimbabwe note the 0:26:01.470,0:26:05.429 absence of most wealthy nations it is 0:26:03.840,0:26:07.110 ridiculous to claim that the rich are 0:26:05.429,0:26:09.779 trying to coerce the poor nations to 0:26:07.110,0:26:11.429 reduce population in fact they are not 0:26:09.779,0:26:14.010 responding to the affirmed needs of the 0:26:11.429,0:26:15.600 poor the following countries are part of 0:26:14.010,0:26:17.909 either the South Commission or partners 0:26:15.600,0:26:21.600 in population and development Zimbabwe 0:26:17.909,0:26:25.980 Kenya Mexico Colombia Thailand Indonesia 0:26:21.600,0:26:30.169 Bangladesh Morocco Egypt Tunisia China 0:26:25.980,0:26:34.470 India Pakistan Uganda Algeria Argentina 0:26:30.169,0:26:38.000 Brazil Cuba Guyana ivory chest Jamaica 0:26:34.470,0:26:41.820 Kuwait Malaysia Mozambique Nigeria 0:26:38.000,0:26:45.539 Philippines Senegal Sri Lanka Uruguay 0:26:41.820,0:26:48.179 Venezuela Yugoslavia former and Western 0:26:45.539,0:26:48.480 Samoa the partners share expertise with 0:26:48.179,0:26:50.549 each 0:26:48.480,0:26:53.370 in reproductive health appropriate 0:26:50.549,0:26:55.320 technologies and population policy the 0:26:53.370,0:26:56.880 challenge to the South report of the 0:26:55.320,0:26:59.490 South Commission included this 0:26:56.880,0:27:01.230 unequivocal statement in the long run 0:26:59.490,0:27:02.610 the problem of overpopulation of the 0:27:01.230,0:27:04.049 countries of the south can be fully 0:27:02.610,0:27:06.210 resolved only through their development 0:27:04.049,0:27:08.100 but action to contain the rise of 0:27:06.210,0:27:11.820 population cannot be postponed 0:27:08.100,0:27:15.030 Naiya rear 1990 easier said than done 0:27:11.820,0:27:16.679 nature will provide as they say but what 0:27:15.030,0:27:19.260 percentages of any cure will be higher 0:27:16.679,0:27:21.150 mortality versus lower fertility what 0:27:19.260,0:27:22.770 percentages of lower fertility could be 0:27:21.150,0:27:25.200 due to willful constraint versus 0:27:22.770,0:27:26.880 physiological changes we may have some 0:27:25.200,0:27:29.400 choice in the answers to these questions 0:27:26.880,0:27:31.140 but acts of omission purposeful inaction 0:27:29.400,0:27:33.720 decrease that possibility 0:27:31.140,0:27:35.309 Smail says he is cautiously optimistic 0:27:33.720,0:27:36.990 that humans will take global action 0:27:35.309,0:27:39.690 based on an individual and collective 0:27:36.990,0:27:42.030 concern for bustara t bloomberg and 0:27:39.690,0:27:44.059 summarizes six measures proposed by joel 0:27:42.030,0:27:47.040 coen which have been widely supported 0:27:44.059,0:27:48.690 educate and empower women educate men 0:27:47.040,0:27:51.330 promote the distribution of 0:27:48.690,0:27:53.100 contraceptives Save the Children improve 0:27:51.330,0:27:55.770 the economics in developing countries 0:27:53.100,0:27:57.090 all of the above Abernethy strongly 0:27:55.770,0:27:59.880 supports the empowerment and education 0:27:57.090,0:28:01.679 of women the economic element may need 0:27:59.880,0:28:03.990 refinement to address the opportunity 0:28:01.679,0:28:05.730 model Abernethy and smale in which 0:28:03.990,0:28:08.190 population expands in sync with 0:28:05.730,0:28:09.750 perceived future well-being this is the 0:28:08.190,0:28:11.850 most difficult element of feedback to 0:28:09.750,0:28:13.830 address in my opinion since the poor 0:28:11.850,0:28:16.500 naturally unexpectedly strive for better 0:28:13.830,0:28:17.730 material conditions perhaps sustainable 0:28:16.500,0:28:19.380 development combined with other 0:28:17.730,0:28:21.510 comprehensive measures is the right 0:28:19.380,0:28:23.520 approach traditional development with 0:28:21.510,0:28:25.620 minimal population policy action is a 0:28:23.520,0:28:27.510 recipe for continued suffering by humans 0:28:25.620,0:28:30.419 and the rest of the planet only greater 0:28:27.510,0:28:32.130 in scope and severity boodles sa calls 0:28:30.419,0:28:34.230 for the establishment of a direct to the 0:28:32.130,0:28:36.690 people nonprofit organization financed 0:28:34.230,0:28:38.940 by a consortium of billionaires it would 0:28:36.690,0:28:40.470 be primarily locally staffed and deliver 0:28:38.940,0:28:42.270 women to women reproductive health 0:28:40.470,0:28:43.740 services to the poorest nations of the 0:28:42.270,0:28:46.740 world the Ted Turner 0:28:43.740,0:28:49.169 Bill Gates George Soros Rockefeller 0:28:46.740,0:28:50.790 Packard and many other foundations have 0:28:49.169,0:28:53.070 recognized the importance of this issue 0:28:50.790,0:28:54.900 it may well be that those in meshed in 0:28:53.070,0:28:57.120 fierce economic competition are Blink 0:28:54.900,0:28:58.470 errored by their focus to succeed while 0:28:57.120,0:29:00.150 those who are very rich have the 0:28:58.470,0:29:01.980 opportunity to step back and look 0:29:00.150,0:29:03.750 farther into the future 0:29:01.980,0:29:05.880 trillion dollars in assets pasture 0:29:03.750,0:29:07.580 progeny can't by itself guarantee them a 0:29:05.880,0:29:10.260 peaceful planet clean air and water 0:29:07.580,0:29:12.929 delicious healthy food and the joys of a 0:29:10.260,0:29:14.790 diverse natural environment a primary 0:29:12.929,0:29:16.770 need is for human action to accelerate 0:29:14.790,0:29:19.650 systemic feedback to augment women's 0:29:16.770,0:29:21.690 empowerment health and education the 0:29:19.650,0:29:24.480 technical means already exist to control 0:29:21.690,0:29:25.740 fertility a second and not previously 0:29:24.480,0:29:27.809 mentioned challenge is the need for 0:29:25.740,0:29:29.669 system science methodology to grow 0:29:27.809,0:29:31.890 worldwide and to ultimately replace 0:29:29.669,0:29:34.440 irrational power based approaches to 0:29:31.890,0:29:36.030 social organization overpopulation is 0:29:34.440,0:29:37.860 but one of the global issues we must 0:29:36.030,0:29:41.419 address and the principle of the weak 0:29:37.860,0:29:41.419 link applies to the whole system 0:29:46.470,0:29:48.530 you
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