Over Population Paper.
Over Population is a general Term, the question can be broken down into two components;One, Over Population what is it? And, two, Overpopulation, do we have that problem ?
In these questions Kippling’s Six honest serving men will help us with both parts of the question.
What and Why and When And How and Where and Who
I keep six honest serving-men
(They taught me all I knew);
Their names are What and Why and When
And How and Where and Who.
I send them over land and sea,
I send them east and west;
But after they have worked for me,
I give them all a rest.
I let them rest from nine till five,
For I am busy then,
As well as breakfast, lunch, and tea,
For they are hungry men.
But different folk have different views;
I know a person small-
She keeps ten million serving-men,
Who get no rest at all!
She sends ’em abroad on her own affairs,
From the second she opens her eyes-
One million Hows, two million Wheres,
And seven million Whys!
What is Overpopulation.
Over population is a qualitative concept meaning more population than a certain amount, The Boundary at which Population is over or under is unclear.
Why is It overpopulated.
When an arbitrary or defined limit is set one would ask why the OverLoad/Capacity State has occurred, How long it might have been that way where the state has occurred if it is perhaps not present everywhere but localised and who are the members of the population that has met any particular definition of Overpopulation.
Do we have an Overpopulation Problem.
Where do we see Overpopulation as a state according to our defined boundary condition, to establish if we have reached a certain state we need a measure as we are talking about Human Population then we would look at the number of people that there are, fortunately the United nations has a large data base of demographic statistical data regarding world populations.
When we talk about overpopulation are we talking about Population in relation to Physical space, ( over crowding) What the idea of Overpopulation is , is that there are too many Human Beings for the available resources of life’s necessaries. Water, Food, and shelter etc.
This new measure , the measure of available resources introduces more complexity to our inquiry into what Overpopulation might be scientifically to help to define the questions regarding our system it would help to build a model of the system we wish to analyses
Population necessary resources ( Pr ) Resources (Ar) where Pr^Ar= overpopulation at its simplest that simple equation is a model of what overpopulation would look like. If Resources available for life’s necessaries are less than the Available resources that would be overpopulation, We would have to add in a time factor say if the situation endured for a certain period of time (Tx) so Pr ^ Ar . Tx^n where n ^y with this equation there is the added complication that this is not a fixed set of parameters, Population may go up or down, Resources available for life’s necessaries may also go up or down,
With such a large and complex question one gets into scenarios and theoretical outcomes, What if’s?. There are many opinions of these what if scenarios and no shortage of people that will offer their opinion as to why their particular What if Scenario is more likely than yours or mine to occur, Because (—-Your opinion here….). One Such what if scenario is this 2000 paper by Steven B Kurz.(1)
I have made an animated presentation of Mr Kurtz’s 2000 paper with a counter presentation along with Mr Kurtz’s follow up comments received by E mial and a final summary.
I made this comment to Mr Kurtz.
It seems clear that in your “Paper” you substitute the word “Evidence” for what should be correctly called “opinion”, it is also quite clear that arguments to Authority are very important to your world view. My own background comes from a tradition of Logic, Mathematics and finite element analysis. …..
In Mr Kurtz’s world view, Opinion, if it emanates from those who he agrees with and finds sufficiently senior or Expert according again presumably to his Opinion. Is then elevated to the Status of Evidence.
Empirically testable Data constitutes evidence in the scientific world and models are built to make testable predictions about what might be found in future data. This Scientific method is designed to produce models that will within their own domain provide predictable outcomes which are better than chance.
Mr Kurtz quotes from Peter Farb ,
“Intensification of production to feed an increased population leads to a
till greater increase in population.” (Peter Farb, 1978)
Similarly this from Abernathy.
(material well-being) leads to higher fertility rates. She gives several good
“In times of privation in France, prior to the revolution, a sense of limits
promoted reproductive caution, and small families were the norm…Prosperity
induced high fertility rates in Ireland after the introduction of the potato,
and in Turkey, when families received land.” (Abernethy, 1994)
Estimated and projected populations of the world and its continents (except Antarctica) from 1950 to 2100, as of 2011. The lower and upper boundaries of the shaded regions correspond to low and high variants (lower and upper bounds) of the projections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Data is from http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm .
Whilst the direction of travel of the Population and Prosperity Variables seems clear, the factors which cause the Direction of the variables are the subject of a protracted and polarised debate.
3 Theories on Fertility: Biological, Cultural and Economic Theories
Mitali Verma gives a short and comprehensive summary of three schools of thought on the question of Prosperity and Fertility
“ Thus, while one theory attributes decline in fertility to relative decrease in the pleasure of parenthood as a result of increase in other sources of pleasure, another theory attributes fertility decline to the rational mentality whereby people tend to evaluate carefully the gains and losses of parenthood (Coontz, 1979:16). Finally, the economic theories are avowedly materialist and stress the importance of economic factors in the overall process of social change, which governs fertility behaviour of a population.”
Fertility of Population Dynamics: 2 Measures of Fertility Analysis http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/population-geography/fertility-of-population-dynamics-2-measures-of-fertility-analysis/43246
“Fertility, one of the three components of population dynamics (the others being mortality and migration), holds a very important place in any population study. A positive force in population dynamics, fertility is responsible for biological replacement and continuation of human society. Fertility levels determine the age structure of a population, which in turn governs the social, economic and demographic characteristics of the population.”
Natural Law Theories and Social Theories of Population (With Criticism) http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/population/natural-law-theories-and-social-theories-of-population-with-criticism/42525
Article shared by : Bhimassen Hanta
“The theories on population that sprang up can be divided into natural law-based population theories and social theories of population. Malthus, Michael Thomas Sadler, Thomas Doubleday and Herbert Spencer propounded natural law theories in the nineteenth century. Henry George, Arsene Dumont, David Ricardo, Karl Marx and Engels were among the social theorists. What follows is a discussion of the ideas of these theorists on population growth”.
Regarding the scientific approach to the Questions posed at the beginning of this short article as a reader you will form your own opinion. Over Population could indeed exist as a potential problem subject to several other contingent factors. Those other contingent factors are related to Resources how resources are measured , accounted for and distributed is the domain of political economy
Politics is the making of choices according to the consent of the Governed. The Political Choices regarding allocation of resources and ownership of the means of producing those resources in the modern world has been delegated to Large Multi National Corporations, Large Banking Entities and also Supra National Government Bodies. Whose benefit do these powerful bodies represent and by which means do they enforce their Political Choices.
Carol Quiggley in Tragedy and hope has this to say on Money and Wealth.
Money and Goods Are Different
”Thus, clearly, money and goods are not the same thing but are, on the contrary,
exactly opposite things. Most confusion in economic thinking arises from failure to
recognize this fact. Goods are wealth which you have, while money is a claim on wealth which you do not have. Thus goods are an asset; money is a debt. If goods are wealth;money is not wealth, or negative wealth, or even anti-wealth. They always behave in opposite ways, just as they usually move in opposite directions. If the value of one goes up, the value of the other goes down, and in the same proportion.”
On the questions of sustainability and Space ship earth the work of Robert Ayers deserves consideration. This Paper is Billiant. https://flora.insead.edu/fichiersti_wp/inseadwp1998/98-38.pdf
The Second Law, The Fourth Law, Recycling and Limits to Growth Robert U. Ayres Center for the Management of Environmental Resources INSEAD Fontainebleau, France May 1998 Abstract Despite counter examples in nature, it has been argued that total recycling is impossible for an industrial society as a consequence of the second law of thermodynamics. In this paper it is shown that there is no such limitation. However, it is also shown that ther must be a large stockpile of inactive materials as well as an exogenous source of exergy (e.g. from the sun) for a stable steady-state recycling system to function.
“Most important for this paper, what does follow from proposition #6 is the following: even the most efficient conceivable recycling process will generate some high entropy wastes. These wastes will accumulate over time in a storehouse or “wastebasket”, which might be the earth’s crust, the oceans, or just a tank in a spaceship. It follows further that, in the absence of any further recovery, the useful materials or products in circulation would be diminished in every period by the amount lost to the wastebasket. Under these circumstances the economy would, indeed, “run down” as G-R asserted. However, there is a fundamental flaw in this reasoning. It is simply that, given the postulated availability of energy (exergy), there is no barrier to treating the “wastebasket” as an ore pile and recovering materials from it. It is true that the secondary recovery process will never be 100% efficient, due to the second law. So there will always be some waste from the recovery process itself. However, this waste merely goes back into the waste basket. But as long as the waste pile is big enough, regardless of grade, it is possible to compensate for the losses. Thus, the correct implication of #6 is just that not all of the materials in the earth (or in a spaceship) can be in “active service” at any given time because the wastebasket can never be eliminated altogether. The size of the wastebasket compared to the size of the active inventory is a function (as will be seen) of the efficiency of recycling, the rate of depreciation and the rate of waste mining. If the exergy flux is limiting (which could be the case) then the maximum sustainable concentration ratio will also depend on the available exergy. How big a wastebasket?”
On the question of Energy Economics this inventory and Stocktaking question is pertinent to notions of a circular economy, How big a Waste Basket Indeed.
I am a Poet , a Philosopher, a Computer Hacker and Musician I am not a politician or someone who wishes to have control over the lives and opportunities of others.
I see the system , or parts of the system that effect my own individual circumstances and seek to understand the political and financial forces which I perceive it in my best interests to Resist.
I find that my foe , my persecutors and my tormentors are not the generality of my fellow citizens, the whole of humanity , but a specific section of it which wishes to paint the rest of humanity as the problem. We the Human Race are not the problem. They Are. Who They are and what their political Structures are are quite evident, it is just important not to be taken in by the branded packaging, for our political institutions no longer work as advertised.
The Other Posts in this series.
My Trilogy of Poems and Novel on the Broader question.