Mervyn King was Governor of the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013.
We chat for nearly two hours about uncertainty, financial instability, and what it means to be rational. Enjoy!
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) August 8, 2020
I enjoy finding very smart people who challenge or disagree with me. Dr Nigel Stapledon is one such person. I first sought him out in June, and hunted him down again to share him on Real Vision.
I have a lot of respect for Nigel who built Australia’s long-run house prices index. https://t.co/FSCcPEvWFO
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) December 21, 2019
Or try some of these @TheKouk:
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) October 25, 2019
Shiller's message has gone down under! https://t.co/wmgbNLJq13
— Bonnie Blake (@BonnieLBlake) October 3, 2019
I spoke with Nobel laureate @RobertJShiller about bubbles and Australia’s real estate bacchanalia.
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) September 7, 2019
— BalmyInvestor (@balmy_investor) July 8, 2019
3-hour episode with John Hempton goes out tomorrow (completely separate to my housing market conversation with him). It will be good — similar vein to my @AlderLaneeggs episode https://t.co/fCqkqGwM9K
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) July 7, 2019
Beautiful little paper on how a 1984-1990 house prices bubble rippled through Paris: a similar pattern to the Sydney contagion that @John_Hempton and I discussed in our podcast, though moving West-East in the Parisian case.
See left-hand chart:
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) July 3, 2019
In the Irish housing bust, Dublin residential property prices fell 59.1% in real terms from a February 2007 peak to a May 2012 trough.
During this period, prices recorded small increases in May 2008 (0.1%), August 2009 (0.1%), and August 2010 (0.5%).
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) July 1, 2019
My key thesis on Aus housing is that speculators will flee.
The typical rebuttal I hear is: "Aus investors know to hold for the long-term."
But I suspect that is not so much a deeply-ingrained belief as a fragile post hoc rationalisation.
Eg. see this chart from Bob Shiller: pic.twitter.com/Yc026Zy1nZ
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) May 30, 2019
Must listen….. https://t.co/CXK9LrBBIf
— Grant Williams (@ttmygh) May 20, 2019
— Mathew Casey (@matcasey) May 27, 2019
Even if you think that this weeks announcements on easing the APRA lending criteria will be good for prices, you owe it to yourself to review #housingbubbleweek and listen carefully to each interviewee. https://t.co/gpJjmlfiCR
— Mark Beveridge (@marks_thinking) May 25, 2019
The great irony of (Father of the EMH) Eugene Fama's denial of bubbles is that his beloved Chicago has the most orgiastic history of real estate speculation of any US city.
The 1830s saw a classic real estate bubble, but there was also the early-1870s, late-1880s, 1920s & 2000s. pic.twitter.com/A0o87pI50c
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) May 24, 2019
Friends, just so you know: I usually include fairly detailed show notes with timestamps and links to research. You’ll find them on the website (https://t.co/9dOsXjqePg) or in the episode info on Apple podcasts.
If you’re interested in the topics, you’ll find some great info pic.twitter.com/2zP6TqJPBI
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) May 20, 2019
I had behavioural macroeconomist Timo Henckel around to the pad in Sydney for some wine and bubbles — of the financial variety.
I hugely enjoyed this chat. We discuss bubbles, upward sloping demand curves, and investor contagion. Enjoy!
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) May 19, 2019
(For the record: Joe thinks price falls will be >20% regardless.)
— The Jolly Swagman Podcast (@jollyswagmanpod) May 16, 2019
Episode #3 of #housingbubbleweek!
Joe speaks with renowned social scientist Timur Kuran about a new way to conceptualise housing bubbles: https://t.co/e271nsEu3J
— The Jolly Swagman Podcast (@jollyswagmanpod) May 15, 2019
We all know that real estate is the best long-term investment for capital gains, and investors should just hold through the ups and downs of the market. Right??
Piet Eichholtz created the Herengracht Index, the world's longest house prices index.
— Joseph Walker (@JosephNWalker) May 14, 2019
Joe kicks off #housingbubbleweek with a bang!
Dean Baker joins the pod for an excellent one-hour conversation on what exactly enabled him to see the US housing bubble when the rest of mainstream economists were blind. https://t.co/pBeYaVc7y2
— The Jolly Swagman Podcast (@jollyswagmanpod) May 13, 2019
Housing Market Fundamentals including Debt. From Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance to The Covid19 Debt Bomb.#COP26 Moduloft Primer.
Primer INDEXED UNITS OF ACCOUNT: THEORY AND ASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE, Property Values and Indexation
#Moduloft The Concept. #Cop26 Draft No.1 Presentation and discussion #BuildBackBetter #LevellingUp
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#BuildBackBetter Part 2 #WEF #4IR “La réforme, oui. La chienlit, non ! ”
Moduloft on Money 25-35 95% and 5 x joint incomes
Research into Mortgage origination risk analysis
Full Outline FInal , With Executive Summary Bumper Sticker._Loft Miles Shared Ownership Mind Map.outline.docx (1)
#AbiogenicClimateChange #Scarcity #MoneyandPlan #Whathavetrotskyistseverdoneforus
#FUD EDITION #GrubStreetJournal