On Proof and Misallocation of Credit. Is there still a First Time Buyers Housing “Market” in the UK? @genrentuk @econ_SPE @OxfordEconomics @ianmulheirn #MODULOFT

Mutatis mutandis
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For the album, see Mutatis Mutandis (album).
Look up mutatis mutandis in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.
Mutatis mutandis is a Medieval Latin phrase meaning “with things changed that should be changed” or “having changed what needs to be changed” or “once the necessary changes have been made”.[1][2][3] It remains unnaturalized in English and is therefore usually italicized in writing. It is used in many countries to acknowledge that a comparison being made requires certain obvious alterations, which are left unstated. It is not to be confused with the similar ceteris paribus, which excludes any changes other than those explicitly mentioned. Mutatis mutandis is still used in law, economics, mathematics, linguistics and philosophy. In particular, in logic, it is encountered when discussing counterfactuals, as a shorthand for all the initial and derived changes which have been previously discussed.

Counterfactual conditional
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“Counterfactual” redirects here. For other uses, see Counterfactual (disambiguation).
Counterfactual conditionals (also subjunctive or X-marked) are conditional sentences which discuss what would have been true under different circumstances, e.g. “If Peter believed in ghosts, he would be afraid to be here.” Counterfactuals are contrasted with indicatives, which are generally restricted to discussing open possibilities. Counterfactuals are characterized grammatically by their use of fake tense morphology, which some languages use in combination with other kinds of morphology including aspect and mood.

Counterfactuals are one of the most studied phenomena in philosophical logic, formal semantics, and philosophy of language. They were first discussed as a problem for the material conditional analysis of conditionals, which treats them all as trivially true. Starting in the 1960s, philosophers and linguists developed the now-classic possible world approach, in which a counterfactual’s truth hinges on its consequent holding at certain possible worlds where its antecedent holds. More recent formal analyses have treated them using tools such as causal models and dynamic semantics. Other research has addressed their metaphysical, psychological, and grammatical underpinnings, while applying some of the resultant insights to fields including history, marketing, and epidemiology.

Improving Median Housing Price Indexes
through Stratification
Authors Nalini Prasad and Anthony Richards
Abstract There is a trade-off between how easy a housing price series is
to construct and the extent to which it adjusts for changes in the
mix of dwellings sold. Median house price measures are easily
calculated, frequently used by industry bodies, and quoted in the
media. However, such measures provide poor estimates of shortterm changes in prices because they reflect changes in the
composition of transactions, as well as changes in demand and
supply conditions. This study uses a database of 3.5 million
transactions in the six largest Australian cities to demonstrate
that compositional shifts between higher- and lower-priced parts
of cities can account for much of the noise in median price
measures. Accordingly, a simple method of adjusting for
compositional change through stratification is proposed. The
measure differs from those commonly used internationally, as
neighborhoods or small geographic regions are grouped
according to the long-term average price level of dwellings in
those regions. The measure of price growth produced improves
substantially upon a median and is very highly correlated with
regression-based measures.

The collapse of home ownership
High house prices are often seen as the cause of the collapse in home ownership across the UK. However a closer look
at the data suggests that the mortgage market is a more important factor.
In England, home ownership peaked at 70.5% in 2003 but collapsed quickly from 69.1% in 2007 to 63.1% by 2016 – a
period that saw quite sharp price falls across much of the country. The dominant cause of the collapse was the abrupt
slowdown in mortgage lending to FTBs, which almost halved between 2007 and 2008, and did not recover until
around 2014. This was reflected in a sudden drop in the median LTV for new FTB loans, from 90% in 2007 to 75% in
2009. Had new FTB mortgage issuance persisted at its pre-crisis rate, home ownership would not have fallen in the
subsequent years Consequently, there is little reason to believe that supplying an additional 300,000 houses per year would raise home
ownership. This is both because its impact on prices would be limited, and because ownership rates are much less
sensitive to prices than they are to mortgage availability.
Policy implications
This analysis carries several important implications for the direction of housing policy in the 2020s.
n Plans to boost housing supply above their current rates will not solve problems of high house prices or low home
ownership. Instead, greater supply is likely to result in further growth in the number of unoccupied houses, which
may not be an efficient use of scarce investment capital.
n Growing housing affordability problems in the rented sector appears to be due to a combination of slow wage
growth for young people, erosion of the social housing stock, and housing benefit cuts. Tackling these problems
directly would be a far more potent (and less economically costly) way to improve affordability than boosting
market supply.
n House prices are vulnerable to an end to the era of low interest rates and a reversal of overseas investment flows,
with potentially serious political consequences. This should raise questions for policymakers about whether and
how to insulate households from asset price volatility in future.
n If financial stability in the mortgage market is to remain a policy priority, a return to higher rates of home
ownership will require more fiscal intervention either to subsidise FTBs or reduce financial incentives for landlords.
Either way, recent rapid growth in the number of families in the private rented sector suggests that policy should
urgently address the security it offers, and the quality of the service renters receive.

5. The collapse in home ownership was mainly due to withdrawal of mortgage finance from FTBs, which
suggests policymakers face a trade-off.
This paper has argued that, while high house prices affect home ownership, the dominant driver of its recent collapse
was a sudden stop on mortgage lending to FTBs. And in keeping with that explanation, the recent return to a more
normal pace of FTB lending has seen the home ownership rate stabilise and perhaps begin to recover.

Stratificationor Mix Adjustment Methods