A Well Dressed Supply Side Lie chased by Naked Truth.full spectrum take on the Global Modular MMC Off Site industry #VorsprungdurchVerrymatix #offsite #mmc #HousingForAll #Volumetric #housingdeliveryevolved #rethinkmodular #offsiteconstruction #BOPAS #buildbuildbuild #DfMA #BIM #smarttech #DaveCooperLive @SCABALnet @Hawkins_Brown @akoustudios @Contrast_Design @snaploader @rld_real_CPR @DavidParsleyPW @financialeyes @GenRentBook @Virtual_Viewing


https://www.yumpu.com/user/realrld

For a full spectrum take on the Global Modular MMC Off Site industry Dave Cooper Live is a must watch. Keeping up Live and catching up on the excellent You Tube Back Catalogue.
https://www.linkedin.com/video/live/urn:li:ugcPost:6816968773006880768/


Thank You Dave & Jen Cooper.

Katerra Key Learnings with Building Systems Industry Experts Modular, Panelized, Mass Timber

The Katerra Post Mortem. The Unicorn is Dead, Long Live the Unicorn

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/katerra-post-mortem-unicorn-dead-long-live-roger-lewis/

Home@ix concept Explained

Verrym@ix, is The New Modular Supplier to the Home@ix Group.#VorsprungdurchVerrymatix #offsite #mmc #HousingForAll #Volumetric #housingdeliveryevolved #rethinkmodular #offsiteconstruction #BOPAS #buildbuildbuild #DfMA #BIM #smarttech #smarthome #construction #building #modular #design
@SCABALnet @Hawkins_Brown @akoustudios @Contrast_Design @snaploader @rld_real_CPR @DavidParsleyPW @financialeyes @GenRentBook @Virtual_Viewing #MMC #BIM #DfMA #G7 #COP26 #ParabuildSolutions

Why does Big Tech ignore the Volume House Builders Skill Set, and misdiagnose the causes of the “Housing Crisis”?

There are several key points that have emerged as clear points of difference between the prevailing Institutional/NGO/ Public Sector line , The COnstruction Handbook, The Farmer review and the Lean Construction explication in the DFMA Learnings publication that followed John Prescotts 60k House Competition. These Points are all taken on board unquestioned in the Modulous video which I analysed extensively for that reason.

Original Modulous Video with Subtitles.
Connect London is brought to you by JLL Lend Lease and is powered by UniSuper.
Christopher Mortensen has travelled beyond digital silos.

Modulous Main Points.

moving away from digital silos

increase speed and efficiency within the design and construction industry

two really big questions
1. affordable housing

2.as an industry, we account for about 38 percent of that carbon emissions.

real gap in our ability to deliver
So instead of having a finite number of options, we have not quite infinite number of options, but hundreds or thousands ( This is a fundamental mistake of categorisation Solving NP Hard problems see also ;1. https://homeatix.com/forumthread11-Adventures-in-Programming-Interviews-Misleadingly-Simple-NP-Hard-Problem?
Transcript. (Key Points Green) Points of Difference Red

https://homeatix.com/blogpost14–Christopher-Mortensen-has-travelled-beyond-digital-silos-Modulous-Presentation-a-critique-and-response-by-Roger-Lewis-CEO-of-Home-ix
The reluctant 10 Percent, Mortgagemaxm@ix

BREEAM: the world’s leading sustainability assessment method for masterplanning projects, infrastructure and buildings

https://www.usgbc.org/leed#rating

WELL Building Standard i Sverige

The End of Ownership – VPRO documentary – 2015

Joint Contracts Tribunal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Contracts_Tribunal
Latham Report: Constructing The Team
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latham_Report
Egan Report : Rethinking Construction
Home@ix Overview of the Off Site Manufacturing Sector
https://www.yumpu.com/s/wBxZaDgVimFU1MHJ
Home@tix means – Customer Choice Now! Your Choice of Design – Your Choice of Finance – Options? Your Choice
https://www.yumpu.com/s/Q1VLvDhnH8xXB6ua
The Farmer review 2019

Click to access Farmer-Review.pdf


The Construction Playbook August 2020
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zJWJAr3mC7AG4uxusvIMJNfnweSJhLen/view?usp=sharing
Parable of the Wise and the Foolish Builders
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_Wise_and_the_Foolish_Builders
The Housing Ladder

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/nov/17/housing-ladder-arcade-game-has-players-dodging-buy-to-let-investors

Modulous rebutal with slides

Irvings Script.
“Let me guess, you’re too busy to get on the property ladder…You’re paying rent every
month realizing you’ll never see a return when you want to move?
“Well let’s think about it… What does it take to move from a home renter to a homeowner?
“Maybe you’re a key worker, love what you do, but it’s not paying much now – and the
thought of entering into a mortgage, even with a partner sharing, worries you? Or is it that
moment when friends make decisions based on the value of their property and you wish it
were you with the options?
“Now, with Home@ix, you can move forward, you’ll be able to ‘one stop’ into a great home
and a low deposit, low-cost mortgage. You could easily find yourself paying less than your
present rent!”
r click Home@ix. co.uk. It’ll be the best move
you ever make! (52secs)
Critique Points.
1. affordability and Allocation problem.
a. Finance !
b. Land !
c. Volume House building and Finance Lobby !
2. Customer and Community Consultation this is a Human processes !
3. Integration of Both Private and Public Spaces. !
4. Fleet Sales and Private Sales !
5. The Failure of Lean Build To Order not Build to sell !
1.5. The collapse in home ownership was mainly due to withdrawal of mortgage finance from FTBs, which suggests policymakers face a trade-off. This paper has argued that, while high house prices affect home ownership, the dominant driver of its recent collapse was a sudden stop on mortgage lending to FTBs. And in keeping with that explanation, the recent return to a more normal pace of FTB lending has seen the home ownership rate stabilise and perhaps begin to recover. Ian Mulheirn August 2019

We have a crisis of affordability and allocation. People are borrowing eight times
their income to get on the housing ladder yet there are 700,000 derelict houses, 500,000//theecologist.org/2008/aug/02/radical-carbon-tax-reform(2008)
Dr Adrian Wrigley 2008.

Homeatics , The Vanguard Method for Lean. A Philosophy
http://www.realrld.com/blog/homeatics-the-vanguard-method-for-lean-a-philosophy

The Katerra Post Mortem. The Unicorn is Dead, Long Live the Unicorn

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/katerra-post-mortem-unicorn-dead-long-live-roger-lewis/

Mark obviously has a great background in Consultancy. I actually find Mark Reynolds of MACE a more compelling individual. Jamie Reynolds of Brydon Wood also does not impress me and Legal and General Modular is a horror show. WIth respect to getting our own Supply chain and Assembly Manufacture mix right I think Linbäcks has the better model for us in general with adjustments for the fundamentally different Market realities of the UK and Sweden.

https://ternercenter.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/offsite_construction.pdf

The Last Mile: Getting to Scale When the technical challenges are solved for, and off-site developers have advanced a more viable business model for its product, the final stage of evolution for this industry will be in its production process. Today, most manufacturers still try to take architectural designs and then turn them into digitally-produced shop drawings that work in the factory. Architects and most general contractors are still compensated for their work based on a percentage of the construction costs. A more sophisticated process would instead make standard a set of predetermined designs (which could have some provisions for modest customization) and developers would buy both the module and the design – an integrated approach more akin to the car industry. A customer would still have different models to select from, and perhaps different companies with different designs and prices competing in the marketplace, but the range of customization and need for individualized design services would shrink. To deploy these many solutions and catalyze this industry towards its full potential and potential impact, the off-site construction industry will need visionary, dedicated teams of experienced real estate, technology, manufacturing, and financial partners. They will need to forge a new hybrid development process that includes elements of both conventional construction and traditional manufacturing, and bring thoughtful and entrepreneurial energy and a willingness to break with traditional methods. The summary papers on the Linbäks model are all very good Thomas- Here is a handbook I made including the full Farmer review.

https://issuu.com/rogerglewis1309/docs/chassis_design_and_supply_chain_handbook._1_/22

The Larger Document is also very good on the Finance aspects of the problem, this analysis is missing completely from the Farmer review, and the Construction process focused ouvre. Home@ix does bring a “bring thoughtful and entrepreneurial energy and a willingness to break with traditional methods”.

p.10 para 2. This process doesn’t work for manufacturing off-site, and the industry currently faces a mismatch in expectations and needs between real estate developers and their sources of capital on the one hand, and those of an off-site manufacturing facility on the other; the financing for off-site construction is needed upfront. Factories need capital prior to any construction starting to cover overhead costs and order the materials needed for the modules, which comprise about 60 percent of the total cost of the module. Of this cost, manufacturers generally expect an upfront payment of 50 percent of the module cost and the time the order is placed. And to remain on schedule, factories need almost all of the materials and parts within a very short period of time (a few weeks), as each module or “box” is built in a day.

Why There are Now So Many Shortages (It’s Not COVID)

In the Seddon paper I like the idea of Manufacturing Flow rather than Economies of Scale. The Factory Method goes for Economies of scale based upon reducing unit cost through Maximum unit production. With the optimized supply chain we can Maximise the Flow of Product as demanded by the Customer Capacity is determined at the Pop up assembly line level as demanded. No Excess capacity or minimum output efficiencies apply this spare capacity is inherent in the Component supply chain which serves a market at a much wider scale than and individual fully manufactured producer could hope to do?

“Unfortunately, however, the purveyors of ‘Lean Thinking’ have missed the point that the principles behind the TPS required dramatic changes to the way managers think. In manufacturing Ohno’s TPS presented fundamental challenges to conventions like, for example, ‘make and sell’, instead making to order; ‘inventory as value’, instead inventory as cost; ‘unit costs’, instead cost is in flow.” Seddon , The Vanguard Method. (Also see Seddon Failure Demand.)

In Housing there are two fundamental misdiagnoses of the problem.

1.5. The collapse in home ownership was mainly due to withdrawal of mortgage finance from FTBs, which suggests policymakers face a trade-off. This paper has argued that, while high house prices affect home ownership, the dominant driver of its recent collapse was a sudden stop on mortgage lending to FTBs. And in keeping with that explanation, the recent return to a more normal pace of FTB lending has seen the home ownership rate stabilise and perhaps begin to recover.

Ian Mulheirn August 2019

2. “Evidence of a real housing shortage is absent. A real shortage would
show up as overcrowding nationwide. People would be walking the
streets in the hope of finding a room. Room prices would be high, and
there would be no empty houses.We have a crisis of affordability and
allocation. People are borrowing eight times their income to get on
the housing ladder yet there are 700,000 derelict houses, 500,000
second homes, and hundreds of thousands of pensioners homes with at
least three bedrooms spare. The overheated Spanish housing market
shows that rapid building programmes do not cure price bubbles”​.

Dr Adrian Wrigley.

For an Affordable Product to work the appropriate supply of newly

created credit needs to be accessible for new first time buyers. It is

the successive failure to solve or even address this piece of the

puzzle that has led to the Market as we see it today. By some

estimations ( Werner et al) the cause of the Gyrations we call the

property cycle, is the availability of Credit,

The phenomenon of receding levels of home ownership and failure to build where there is a real hosuing need in favour of blowing up bubbles at the top end of the housing ladder is amply demonstarted across the Developed world.

Here is a selction of documentaries.

Part 2:

Part 3:

https://ternercenter.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Swedish_Housing_System_Memo.pdf

https://housing-futures.org/2018/01/31/public-housing-in-new-orleans-looking-back-12-years-after-hurricane-katrina/

Globalisation Un-Entangled. (A FOUND POEM, CIPHER OF GLOBALISM )

Bourgeois resolution. A poem in Three Voices for added 4th part Harmony.

Glamorous flashing city lights
Suburbia within commute of higher
Dreams. A stairway to real Estate heaven.The only Ladder, oh to be
upon the bottom rung and rise.Dreams for mortgage, no hostage to Fortune.
Sophistication often masques ignorance. The humble and rustic often belies an appreciation of what truly is.

Calliopsis or Magnesia where poets
slave to familiar rhymes and themes
Not golden or silver words but workmanlike
fashion hymns of safe iron and copper.


http://www.realrld.com/blog/no-yes-men-at-realrld-loftmiles-authenticplacemaking-placemakingbasics

Live Stream Dialogue with John Hearne. A LIVE STREAMED DIALOGUE ON MONEY, BANKING AND POLITICAL ECONOMY. “TINA” THE VILLAGE BIKE OR TEMPLE WHORE.

Urban Splash really going for it with the 3rd Sector Two Hats approach?

Author: rogerglewis

https://about.me/rogerlewis Looking for a Job either in Sweden or UK. Freelance, startups, will turń my hand to anything.

1 thought on “A Well Dressed Supply Side Lie chased by Naked Truth.full spectrum take on the Global Modular MMC Off Site industry #VorsprungdurchVerrymatix #offsite #mmc #HousingForAll #Volumetric #housingdeliveryevolved #rethinkmodular #offsiteconstruction #BOPAS #buildbuildbuild #DfMA #BIM #smarttech #DaveCooperLive @SCABALnet @Hawkins_Brown @akoustudios @Contrast_Design @snaploader @rld_real_CPR @DavidParsleyPW @financialeyes @GenRentBook @Virtual_Viewing