simple story the average human has one breast and one testicle Taleb goes Large, #nLarge #Taleb #BlackSwan #WuhanandHisDog never compare
Mediocristan to Extremistan (Covid to car accidents)
N N Taleb’s Probability Moocs
78K subscribers
We discuss 1) the errors in ignoring scaling for pandemics, why a doctor’s micro-expertise doesn’t transfer to collective risks, 2) how evidence based medicine is closer to anecdote based medicine owing to silent risks, 3) the risks of morbidity must be accounted for 4) how the dangers of vaccines do not scale.
In every age bracket, the vaccinated live longer than the unvaccinated (using all cause mortality). However as a group the unvaccinated appear to have a longer life expectancy. This is because the vaccinated tend to be older (hence more likely to die). I explain Simpson’s Paradox in general.
Note: I used the vaccinated/unvaccinated ratio for 50-60 vs 10-20 of Oct 2021, so don’t bug me if it rose since; no effect on the point so long as there is an inequality.
V. FAT TAILS AND FRAGILITY
A. Thin and Fat Tails
To figure out whether a given decision involves the risk
of ruin and thus warrants the use of the PP, we must first
understand the relevant underlying probabilistic structures.
There are two classes of probability distributions of events:
one in which events are accompanied by well behaved, mild
variations (e.g. Gaussian or thin tails), and the other where
small probabilities are associated with large variations that
have no characteristic scale (e.g. power law or fat tails). Allegorically these are illustrated by Mediocristan and Extremistan
(Figs. 3 and 4), the former being typical of human weight distributions, and the latter of human wealth distributions. Given
a series of events (a sequence of measurements of weight or
wealth), in the case of thin tails the sum is proportional to
the average, and in the case of fat tails a sum over them may
be entirely dominated by a single one. Thus, while no human
being can be heavier than, say, ten average adults (since weight
is thin-tailed), a single individual can be richer than the poorest
two billion humans (since wealth is fat tailed).
VON NEUMANN’S ELEPHANT
John von Neumann famously said
With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.
By this he meant that one should not be impressed when a complex model fits a data set well. With enough parameters, you can fit any data set.
It turns out you can literally fit an elephant with four parameters if you allow the parameters to be complex numbers.
vonNeuman_elephant.py
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert_Read
#JeSuisBourgoiseBlancHomme #GreenAlarmism #CollectivistDictatorship #DrRupertReadOntheCouch. Why are climate Alarmist uncritical of Imperial War and Imperial Power Structures? #JemBendell?
Cite as:
Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Systemic risk of pandemic via novel pathogens – Coronavirus: A note, New England Complex Systems Institute (January 26, 2020).
Transition to extinction: Pandemics in a connected world
Yaneer Bar-Yam
Yaneer Bar-Yam
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View at Medium.com
Jul 3, 2016 · 5 min read
Publications
Norman, J. A Theory for the Visual Perception of Object Motion
Norman, J., Bar-Yam, Y. Special Operations Forces: A Global Immune System?
Taleb, N., Read, R., Douady, R., Norman, J., Bar-Yam, Y. The Precautionary Principle
Norman, J., Bar-Yam-Y., Taleb, N., Climate Models and Precautionary Measures
Norman, J., Hock, H., Schöner, G. Contrasting accounts of direction and shape perception in short-range motion: Counterchange compared with motion energy detection
Berger, M., Faubel, C., Norman, J., Hock, H., Schöner, G. The counter-change model of motion perception: an account based on dynamic field theory
Donaldson, E., Norman, J. The Emergence of Micro-Ex Service Organizations
Norman, D., Norman, J. Sense and Avoid: Does scanning work as we teach it?
1) The law of large numbers (properties of aggregates) works in one direction. Why you can generalize from particulars, never particularize from generals.
2) The difference betweern clinical, statistical, and risk management approached. Why they don’t scale.
3) Never compare
Mediocristan to Extremistan (Covid to car accidents)
.WUHAN AND HIS DOG, PARODY ONE MAN AND HIS DOG
The Oligarchical Virus #PlatonOvidVirus666 #AristotolilliadoVirus33 #CronyCapitalistVirus2020 A 9/11 event.@wiki_ballot @financialeyes #IABATO #SAM @JoeBlob20
Alternative View
VIRAL ISSUE CRUCIAL UPDATE SEPT 8TH: THE SCIENCE, LOGIC AND DATA EXPLAINED!
ONSDAG 27 OKTOBER 2021
Energy Power Politics: China vs US/EU
A basic postulate of Mearsheimer’s offensive realism expressed in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics says that states attempt to maximise their power at the expense of other states with survival as ultimate goal.
Great power politics is played with economical and military force both ultimately resting on supply of energy.
China is now increasing its energy production with a new coal plant opened every week.
All 27 EU Member States are committed to turning the EU into the first climate neutral continent by 2050.
President Biden is pledging to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2030.
This is the set-up for the UN Climate Change Conference COP26 in Glasgow starting next week: China will continue to build economical and military power from fossil energy, while EU/US will phase out fossil energy without possibility to compensate by new nuclear energy.
From an offensive realist point of view with survival as ultimate goal, this does not look good at all for EU/US. Clearly EU/US politicians do not listen to Mearsheimer, only Xi.
SÖNDAG 29 SEPTEMBER 2013
Judith Curry: From Sick to Healthy Climate Science
Judith Curry has gone a long way from supporter to opponent of the CO2 global warming science of IPCC, by realizing that the science of IPCC is sick and therefore has to be eliminated to allow healthy climate science to develop:
The IPCC needs to get out of the way so that scientists and policy makers can better do their jobs.
We need to put down the IPCC as soon as possible – not to protect the patient who seems to be thriving in its own little cocoon, but for the sake of the rest of us whom it is trying to infect with its disease.
Fortunately much of the population seems to be immune, but some governments seem highly susceptible to the disease. However, the precautionary principle demands that we not take any risks here, and hence the IPCC should be put down.
Since 97% of institutions and people of climate science reportedly have been infected by IPCC, Judith is asking for a revolution with a small group of healthy skeptics leading climate science into the future. Interesting perspectives…
PS1 Judith started her transformation from alarmist to heretic by suddenly realizing that “back radiation” as the basis of greenhouse gas alarmism, is non-physical, which was also my door to skepticism.
PS2 Judith makes the same analysis as Pointman:
We’ve just witnessed the embarrassing and public humiliation of climate science as a field of honest scientific endeavour. It has lost all claim to be taken seriously and is now tarred with the same pathological science brush that aberrations like Lysenkoism or Eugenics were. It’s now up to the non-activist scientists in the field, who’ve stayed silent for far too long, to save it from that fate by speaking out and reclaiming their field from fanatics posing as scientists. As Elvis said, it’s now or never.
PS3 Judy’s death sentence has now been printed in Financial Post.
UPPLAGD AV CLAES JOHNSON KL. 09:42 2 KOMMENTARER:
ETIKETTER: IPCC, JUDY CURRY
CLIMATEPSICNCE IS PSUEDO PSCIENCE. DR GEOFFREY A GLASSMAN PHD
This is a Talk about Science, Logic and Mathematics and Language.
Semantics and Syntax are important so are definitions and Boundary Conditions.
Dr Glassman published a Famous paper on the Fast Fourier Transform in 1970.
Fourier identified CO2 as a “GreenHouse Gas” and The Fourier Transform is a hugely important aspect of COmputer Modeling.
Dr Glassman in giving this talk shows the foundational reasoning which provides the framework for his insights into dynamic systems modelling his incisive and clear communication certainly provide a signpost of the direction of travel for those who wish like Dr Glassman to be Literal Rocket Scientists.
http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/
https://web.archive.org/web/20190404181256/http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/
This Talk may be followed up with looking at this blog of a discourse Dr Glassman Gave on the Pre-Recusant Judy Curry Climate Blog
https://longhairedmusings.wordpress.com/2019/02/11/agreeing/
Concerns of Corporate Greenwashing
Greta Thonberg responded [5] to concerns of corporate capture of her message which has been expressed by the Wrong Kind of Green [6], an Indigenous peoples environmental group. [7] “We attempt to expose those who undermine the People’s Agreement. One role of the non-profit industrial complex is to undermine, marginalize and make irrelevant, the People’s Agreement. The reason being, to protect corporate interests by which they are funded. As well, the non-profit industrial complex protects the industrialized, capitalist economic system, responsible for the capitalist destruction of our shared environment. Those groups who continue to protect such interests must be considered complicit in crimes against humanity.” — Preceding unsigned comment added by RogerGLewis (talk • contribs) 02:39, 11 February 2019 (UTC)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Extinction_Rebellion
http://www.wrongkindofgreen.org/2019/01/28/the-manufacturing-of-greta-thunberg-for-consent-the-most-inconvenient-truth-capitalism-is-in-danger-of-falling-apart/#comment-300785
February 11, 2019
Agreeing(?) ( Two Disagree, when Now becomes Won, Part Two.) An Act of Five Parts #WrongKindofGreen #DistictionRebellion #ConquestofDough
THE PRUSSIAN CONNECTION – UNDERGROUND HISTORY – JOHN TAYLOR GATTO
Graham H. Seibert
TOP 500 REVIEWER
5.0 out of 5 starsJohn Taylor Gatto is a truly educated man, a rarity in the field of education.
May 12, 2011
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
Gatto is able to look at the American education enterprise from a universal perspective. He knows the intellectual history of the West well, and is able to trace the development of the concept of education through the centuries.
#IdeaRevolution
The Prussian Connection – UNDERGROUND HISTORY – John Taylor Gatto
Aadhaar Is Not Available To Watch On Any Streaming Platform.
Aadhaar Is Not Available On Rent At The Moment.
Aadhaar Cant Be Purchased At The Moment.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article197580.html
THE VACCINE WAR FRONTLINE PBS ORIGINAL EDIT
SEASON 2010: EPISODE 16
Public health scientists and clinicians tout vaccines as one of the greatest
HOUSE OF NUMBERS: ANATOMY OF AN EPIDEMIC #COVIDPURPOSE
COOL IT BJORN LOMBERG GLOBAL WARMING REALIST PRAGMATISM FILM COOL IT: THE SKEPTICAL ENVIRONMENTALIST
HIDE THE DECLINE , CLIMATE GATE RETRIEVED. #WRONGKINDOFGREEN #CLIMATEFRAUD
THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF CARBON TRADING . BANNED PAPER CRITICISING CARBON TRADING #WRONGKINDOFGREEN
STATE AND CAPITAL, ROWING IN THE SAME BOAT
World’s scientists slam denier website for misrepresenting conclusions of blog post
Together, we can survive COVID-19 and die of climate change
3 Replies
Sometimes, when your eyes have adjusted to the darkness, you start to discern in the dark even darker darknesses than you ever knew possible. Tomorrow you’ll forget the truth like a bad dream; you know this now, as surely as you know that in the morning everything you know about the dark will be an unknown unknown all over again. Scientists at Cornell West University’s Black Studies Institute now recognize fifty different shades of #000000FF, but only at night; when the cock crows they’ll deny it point-blank. At first light they’ll denigrate the whole, rich spectrum of sables by reducing them to the name of a crayon.
And so it goes right now, with this pandemic we’re waiting out. Yes, it’s a pain in the rectum. Yes, things are looking dark. But squint real hard and you might just make out, at the end of the tunnel, the light-extinguishing singularity that is climate change.
Nobody really wants to be killed by the new coronavirus. If it happens it happens, but let’s be honest: back in first grade, when Ms Strzlecki asked us what we wanted to die of when we grew up, how many of us said COVID-19?
