I see a little silhouetto of a man,
Scaramouch, Scaramouch, will you do the Fandango!
Thunderbolts and lightning, very, very frightening me
Galileo, Figaro – magnificoo
DO THE CANTANGO, BACKWARDATION TO MONOPOLY. POWER WORK TIME BLOOD. SIXTEEN TONS SELLING YOUR SOUL TO the Company Store. (#Aadhaar)
Drilling into Debt
1.5 Price Formula Prior to 1979-80, long-term contracts accounted for most international trade. In the 1970s, crude was sold at official selling prices, which were set according to differentials to Arabian Light. The differentials were based on physical properties of the grades and distances to the markets. However, the official price system, which was the basis for most long-term contracts then, was no longer working in the mid-1980s under the decreasing call for OPEC oil due to increased non-OPEC production and diminishing oil demand in the early 1980s. Saudi Arabia, which played the role of swing producer within the OPEC quota system, abandoned the official prices and established a netback pricing system in late 1985 to defend its market share. The netback pricing system tied the value of crude oil to the spot market prices of refined products (see the next section).
Energy Returned on Energy Invested, Surplus Energy Economics DataBase ( SEEDS) Embodied Energy Circular Economy. #GrubStreetJournal #GrubStreetScience #GrubStreetEnergy #TheExergist #TheExergyst Exorcising the stupid from the discourse on Political Economy, Energy and Climate Change Fanaticism.
Introduction to Technocracy – 1933
discussions — of ‘value,’ of fluctuating prices, of the gold standard, of changing interest rates, of items of pecuniary wealth which are at the same time items of debt — are
merely discussions looking toward a readjustment of the factors which prevent them
The problem of analysing political choices against the metric of a Monetary measure is the Money as a Thing is most certainly a Variable and as any good technologist, scientist or metrologist will tell you a unit of measurement has to be clearly defined and fixed.
The dollar. He notes that it is a variable. Why anyone should attempt, on this earth, to use a
variable as a measuring rod is so utterly absurd that he dismisses any serious
consideration of its use in his study of what should be done.
He also considers ‘price’ and ‘value’ and the fine- spun theories of philosophers and
economists who have attempted to surround these terms with the semblance of meaning.
These terms, like the monetary unit, may have had meaning to men in the past but they
mean nothing whatsoever to the modern technologist. The standard of measurement is
not relevant to the things measured; and the measuring rod and the things, measured as if
they were stable, are all variables.
This comparison of different energy solution uses ERIO
1.1. The economic cost of energy
The ratio of the monetary cost of energy compared to the GDP generated for the same year gives a quantitative index of how much money is invested in energy on average to generate a unit of wealth. This can be calculated by dividing the money required to buy energy by the total gross domestic product. When this ratio is low, typically around five per cent, economies grow strongly (Hall and Klitgaard,2012). When this ratio is high, about ten per cent (and, historically, up to fourteen per cent), recessions tend to occur. A sudden climb(followed by a subsequent decline) in the proportion of the GDP spent for energy occurred during the two 1970s and the mid-2008“oil price shocks”(Hall and Cleveland, 1981; Hamilton, 2009; Hall andKlitgaard, 2012). Rapid increases in the economic cost of energy (e.g.fromfive to ten per cent) result in the diversion of funds from what is typically devoted to discretionary spending to energy acquisition(Hall and Klitgaard, 2012). Consequently, large changes in energy prices influence economies strongly.
The PetroDollar Standard, with Saudi oil production being a swing producer to facilitate inflation of the currency. In January 2005, Saudi Arabia increased its operating rig count by 144%, to increase oil production by only 6.5%. This suggests that the market swing producer (as Saudi Arabia was seen) was not able to increase production enough to meet increasing demand.
Plateau Oil. A variation on the idea of peak oil. AT Plateaux production no swing capacity in Oil Supply is similar to demonetizing Silver giving a defacto PetroDollar Standard which is inherently deflationary.
2.1. EIR of oil and petroleum
The EIRp, oil typically lies between 10 and 30, but from 1949 to 2008 it ranges from 7.5 (1981) to 48 (1998) with a value of 8.8 in 2008 marking the year of the highest oil price in history and the beginning of the latest time period of US economic recession. The minimum EIRp, oil of 7.5 in 1981 also coincided with the peak of an economic recession in the US as well as the time of the highest overall cost of petroleum as a percentage of GDP at 8.5% (EIA 2008). EIRe, petro from 1970 to 2006 ranged from 5.3 in 1981 to 15.9 in 1998, the same years for the lowest and highest EIRp, oil. In 1981 EIRp, oil:EIRe, petro was 1.43:1 (minimum) and in 1998 3.05:1 (maximum). The EIRp, oil from 1949 to 1972 gradually increased from 19 to 29 with little volatility in the value. This lack of volatility can possibly be attributed to the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC) acting as an oil cartel by
pro rationing oil production in Texas from 1935 to 1973 to create a price floor for balancing supply and demand (Prindle 1981)
. With Texas as the swing state oil producer until US peak production in 1970, this balancing on the price was possible.
In 2005, Platts also turned its attentions to carbon emissions coverage with a newsletter, Emissions Daily (the first of several carbon offerings to come), as the topic of climate change took center stage in global political arenas. Another commodity in the limelight during the decade was steel. Increasingly, the business and financial communities were looking to steel as an indicator of global economic growth, construction activity, and as a leading indicator of inflation. To serve the growing need for timelier price information, Platts introduced the world’s first-ever independent source of daily price assessments in steel via its new Steel Markets Daily. Market coverage and price assessments in iron ore, a feedstock to the production of steel, soon followed. By 2009, Platts’ employees had grown to 600 in 17 offices on five continents. Platts now served customers in more than 150 countries, deriving half of its business from international activities. Promoting Transparency in Markets, Efficiencies, Solutions Beginning in 1999, the energy markets experienced one of the most volatile periods in history. The per-barrel price of oil gyrated from about $13 per barrel in 1999 to nearly $150 in 2008, and back to the $30- to $40-per barrel range in 2009. Industry and governments debated not only climate change, but “peak oil,” energy sustainability and renewable resources. During periods of both relative price stability and great volatility, Platts has remained – as it was in the early 1900s – one of the leading go-to sources of information about the energy markets. And, today, it has also become a leading information source on the metals markets for industry, governments, regulators, risk managers, market observers, and the media. Platts, celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2009, remains committed to advancing transparency in commodity markets by providing timely news, supply/demand fundamentals, price assessments, insight and analysis, and other information vital to the understanding of markets and the price discovery process. Platts also remains committed to providing commodity information solutions and analytical tools that will help its clients make sound trading and business decisions throughout the 2lst century.
“The resource diagram shows that we have produced 49 per cent of the recoverable resources on the shelf. Of course, it is impossible to say exactly how much is yet to be discovered, but our analyses indicate that it can be 24 per cent of the total. “Therefore, it is important to explore in all the sea areas”, says Director General Ingrid Sølvberg.
3.4.5. The role of spare capacity The ability to deliver a production surge to respond to a supply disruption elsewhere requires spare production capacity that had been held in reserve prior to the disruption. The IEA defines spare capacity as ‘the capacity levels that can be reached within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days’ (Stelter and Nishida, 2013, p.25). The United States EIA uses the same definition (EIA, 2016). Most of the world’s spare oil production capacity is held by OPEC, and is concentrated in a single exporter, Saudi Arabia. In contrast, the scope for a ‘production surge’ from increased indigenous production among IEA countries is very limited. The advent of light tight (shale) oil in the United States has changed the dynamics of oil supply, but new shale oil production cannot be brought to market sufficiently rapidly to meet the IEA definition of spare capacity referred to above. Recent historical data shows that there is a delay of 15 to 22 weeks from a turning point in oil prices to a turning point in horizontal drilling rigs in North America. Given the process of drilling, fracking and completing a shale well, it then takes at least four to six months to bring into production oil from new shale wells. Hence the response horizon for shale oil is up to one year, and the experience so far suggests shale oil is well suited to balancing in a one- to five-year forward time frame. This is not as responsive as flexible spare capacity that can respond within 30 days and then sustain output for at least 90 days. Shale oil is not ‘spare capacity’ and nor is it a new source of ‘swing production.’ However, shale oil is far more responsive than large-scale conventional oil projects, for which the response time is typically be five to ten years. The ability of shale oil supply to contribute to oil market balancing is a new development, which tends to reduce pressure on other supply-side sources of market balancing, including flexible swing capacity. 78 The Global Oil Market | A Review Paper Cape Otway Associates Figure 27 in section 2.2.3 shows that in the 1970s and 1980s, Saudi Arabia’s annual average daily production rate swung enormously three times—by 5.4 Mbpd up, 6.6 to Mbpd down and 5.2 Mbpd up— each time within the space of several years. Since 1990, Saudi annual production has swung through a range of 2 Mbpd, while underlying Saudi production has grown from 9 to 12 Mbpd. Section 3.5.8 on page 96 describes in more detail how shale oil interacts with spare capacity and other means of balancing the market.
C. Production Peaking
World oil demand is expected to grow 50 percent by 2025. To meet that
demand, ever-larger volumes of oil will have to be produced. Since oil production
from individual reservoirs grows to a peak and then declines, new reservoirs
must be continually discovered and brought into production to compensate for
the depletion of older reservoirs. If large quantities of new oil are not discovered
and brought into production somewhere in the world, then world oil production
will no longer satisfy demand. That point is called the peaking of world
conventional oil production.
When world oil production peaks, there will still be large reserves remaining.
Peaking means that the rate of world oil production cannot increase; it also
means that production will thereafter decrease with time.
The Oilion Conroversy.
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Locke on Currency
by James Bonar
Palgrave Dictionary of Political Economy
volume 2, 1896
“Money is the measure of commerce and of the rate of everything, and therefore ‘ought to be kept (as all other measures) as steady and invariable as may be.’ But this cannot be if your money be made of two metals whose proportion and consequently whose price constantly varies in respect of one another. Silver for many reasons is the fittest of all metals to be this measure, and therefore generally made use of for money. But then it is very unfit and inconvenient that gold or any other metal should be made current legal money at a standing settled rate. This is to set a rate upon the varying value of things by law, which cannot justly be done.” (p. 51) “What then (will you be ready to say) would you have gold kept out of England? Or being here, would you have it useless to trade, and must there be no money made of it? I answer, quite the contrary. ‘Tis fit the kingdom should make use of the treasure it has. ‘Tis necessary your gold should be coined and have the king’s stamp upon it, to secure men in receiving it that there is so much gold in each piece. But ’tis not necessary that it should have a fixed value set on it by public authority; ’tis not convenient that it should, in its varying proportion, have a settled price. Let gold, as other commodities, find its own rate. And when by the king’s image and inscription it carries with it a public assurance of its weight and fineness, the gold money so coined will never fail to pass at the known market rates, as readily as any other species of your money” (p. 52). “There being no two things in nature whose proportion and use does not vary ’tis impossible to set a standing regular price between them. The growing plenty or scarcity of either in the market (whereby I mean the ordinary places where they are to be had in traffic), or the real use or changing fashion of the place, bringing either of then more into demand than formerly, presently varies the respective value of any two things. You will as fruitless endeavour to keep two different things steady at the same price one with another as to keep two things in an equilibrium when their varying weights depend on different causes. Put a piece of sponge in one scale and an exact counterpoise of silver in the other; you will be mightily mistaken if you imagine that because they are to-day equal they shall always remain so. The weight of the sponge varying with every change of moisture in the air, the silver in the opposite scale will sometimes rise and sometimes fall. This is just the state of silver and gold in regard of their mutual value. (ib.) “It is the interest of every country that all the current money of it should be of one and the same metal, that the several species should be all of the same alloy and none of a baser mixture, and that the standard once thus settled should be inviolably and immutably kept to perpetuity. For, whenever that is altered, upon what pretence soever, the public will lose by it.” (p. 52, 53)