Energy, Currency, FIAT, Marginal Pricing, Futures. ELECTRICITY, Coal. Transport Fuels, Petroleum, Diesel, Kerosene Bunker, PetroChemicals, Natural Gas, Hydro, Nuclear. WInd Wave Solar Other?
I have been getting my head further around The Energy Market and how it affects the money supply
I think the priority variables are
1. Electricity Base Load production, Coal and Natural Gas, and LPG products?
2. Crude Oil Production and Refinery capacities, Volumes of production are more important than the price per barrel
=3. Swing Production from Shale or Capped and ready to go existing discoveries, Very important to who has upper hand on Marginal pricing on swing production, Texas Rail Road, OPEC, US Shale production?
=3. Gas Production and Coal production are probably equal with 3 or interchangeable with 3.
5. Venezuelan and Iranian supply disruption through Sanctions is a political bottleneck to an otherwise trivial supply problem in the Oil Market.
6. Geo-Political and Green New Deal political economy choices vis Gas Pipe Lines ( Nord Stream / Syria / Ukraine ) are again self-inflicted own goals? Why?
The PetroDollar Standard, with Saudi oil production being a swing producer to facilitate inflation of the currency.
In January 2005, Saudi Arabia increased its number of operating rig count by 144%, to increase oilproduction by only 6.5%. This suggests that the market swing producer (as Saudi Arabia was seen) wasnot able increase production enough to meet increasing demand.
Plateau Oil. A variation on the idea of peak oil. AT Plateaux production no swing capacity in Oil Supply is similar to demonetizing Silver giving a defacto PetroDollar Standard which is inherently deflationary.
QED, Welcome to the new Oil Shock.
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rogerglewis on November 5, 2019 at 6:13 pm said:
Reblogged this on Not The Grub Street Journal and commented:
An interesting piece at first Blush Tim. It will be interesting to follow the comments.
My initial response is that the analysis of the economy as an Energy Transformation machine and only an Energy Transformation machine is going too far the other way.
What I mean by that is that the old Marxist notions of Labour and only Labour being the source of wealth in the economy leads to overreaching in that one direction by ignoring the other Inputs.
In this case, Energy and its importance are stated but other inputs including Labour and raw materials other than energy inputs are also key. Your cursory dealing with renewables, for instance, fails to recognise the breeder renewable possibilities and also ignores circular economy notions of re-recycling and designing for both repair and maintenance and end of life reuse and recycling. In this sort of Circular economy accounting the embedded energy in material goods is accounted for and recycled, there is a stock inventory of converted energy in products in use which is not lost at the end of economic life, your analysis does not complete its promise by ignoring these aspects of Circular Economics.
finally my old point that the Seeds basis should be on an energy equivalent basis, the existing currency accounting unit is broken beyond repair and unfit for purpose, as big an ask that is for people to get their heads around, without grasping that nettle Seeds’ is doomed to going into the cul-de-sac of financial mysticism wrapped up in the un-pin downable gobbly goop of the Economics priesthood.
on November 5, 2019 at 7:59 pm said:
First thought is that labour is a form of energy, as is the nutrition which makes it possible, whilst raw materials are accessible to us only courtesy of the energy we use to access them – at concentrations of 0.2%, how much copper would we get out of Bingham using picks, shovels and mules?
The SEEDS system isn’t perfect – obviously – but compared to models which assume the economy is a financial system…….?
on November 5, 2019 at 8:32 pm said:
Tim, I only make my comment to make suggestions which Might improve what is a very good start in this area of Political Economy. Embodied Energy Accounting and Bills of materials in the production of all capital and consumer stocks of goods makes very good sense but the accounting Unit needs to be falsifiable, monetary debt-based units are not falsifiable they are ad hoc and variable, some better than others but all unfit for purpose.
on November 6, 2019 at 8:53 am said:
I appreciate this, Roger. I realise that there are numerous nuances that we could and perhaps should discuss, were things less pressing and less dangerous than they happen to be.
My point right now, though, is that there’s a primary choice to be made between (a) energy interpretation of the economy and (b) the ‘conventional’, financial approach which is leading us in completely wrong directions.
And your Mommy don’t wear no Drawers. Stranded in a Brothel due to #Coronavirus lets hope there’s no #5G #SEEDS #SurplusEnergy #CarbonCurren #EndGame #Agenda2030 #4Pamphleteers @GrubStreetJorno @Survation @wiki_ballot @financialeyes #WIKIBALLOTPICK #IABATO #SAM #GE2019 Roger Lewis ( Porthos) @JoeBlob20
rogerglewis on January 6, 2022 at 1:07 pm said:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Happy new year Tim,
I have followed the blog for the past two years and I am disappointed that you are still shy about how you calculate your claims re “Peak Prosperity”
You say again in this post, this;
on January 3, 2022 at 8:47 am said:
Thanks Christopher. As I think this is your first comment, welcome.
“Part of the plan looking forward is to provide more resources, including stats. I like to think that we’ve ‘got the basics right’, giving us a good platform for developing and detailing our interpretation.”
I have followed the points raised by Erl Happs, I have to say Erl seems more bounded in empirical evidence than your die-hard catastrophist Limits the Growth devotees. For all the claims to efficacy for your own ECOE and Prosperity indexing, we really only have your word for it still, and real-world data shows that we are not living in the Dystopic future you claim is already here, at least not based upon the causes which you are espousing.
All I can say is I hope you make more progress with what was a promising start 4 years ago and to my own views has stagnated into something of a catastrophist echo chamber the past few years.
All Hail the Nail, something for the Seeds Hammer to tackle.
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