#219. The unravelling begins
erl happ
on January 2, 2022 at 12:24 am said:
There has been no increase in the temperature of the southern hemisphere, taken as a whole, in the months of December and January, for three decades.
I am an Australian farmer. Australian Farmers can and do produce the food that you need. Just lower your tariffs.
Pintada
on January 2, 2022 at 12:30 am said:
I just wanted to ask the question. I will not “debate” morons.
Unravelling Catastrophe. Seeds of Hope or Seeds of destruction.
Unravelling Catastrophe. Seeds of Hope or Seeds of destruction.
I noticed your comments on the SEEDS Blog of Tim Morgan, My comments were barred there a couple of years back, it seems that it is a Huge echo chamber for Catastrophism and Sychophancy these days.
My Two latest Blogs which Advance the Critique of Tims obsession with Energy becoming somehow both scarce and expensive to Extract. Both of which are belief based predicates not supported empirically.
Unravelling Catastrophe. Seeds of Hope or Seeds of destruction.
Unravelling Catastrophe. Seeds of Hope or Seeds of destruction.
rogerglewis on January 6, 2022 at 1:07 pm said:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Happy new year Tim,
I have followed the blog for the past two years and I am disappointed that you are still shy about how you calculate your claims re “Peak Prosperity”
You say again in this post, this;
drtimmorgan
on January 3, 2022 at 8:47 am said:
Thanks Christopher. As I think this is your first comment, welcome.
“Part of the plan looking forward is to provide more resources, including stats. I like to think that we’ve ‘got the basics right’, giving us a good platform for developing and detailing our interpretation.”
I have followed the points raised by Erl Happs, I have to say Erl seems more bounded in empirical evidence than your die-hard catastrophist Limits the Growth devotees. For all the claims to efficacy for your own ECOE and Prosperity indexing, we really only have your word for it still, and real-world data shows that we are not living in the Dystopic future you claim is already here, at least not based upon the causes which you are espousing.
All I can say is I hope you make more progress with what was a promising start 4 years ago and to my own views has stagnated into something of a catastrophist echo chamber the past few years.
All Hail the Nail, something for the Seeds Hammer to tackle.
How Global Finance Really Works
Best
Roger
#163. Tales from Mount Incomprehension
Will! on January 26, 2020 at 12:02 pm said:
“Because literally none of the goods and services which comprise the economy could be produced without energy, it should hardly be necessary to point out that the economy is an energy system. Equally, it should be obvious that, whenever energy is accessed for our use, some of that energy is always consumed in the access process. This access component is known here as the Energy Cost of Energy (ECoE), and it forms a critical part of the equation which determines our prosperity.”
Thank you for another interesting post Dr Morgan.
Does SEEDS offer any insight into how the rate at which energy is accessed by the economy affects our prosperity?
For example, shale appears to have increased the rate at which chemical energy can be accessed by the economy relative to the economy’s ability to use it (i.e. convert that chemical energy to other forms of energy) and so the monetary price of oil has fallen even as the ECoE has risen.
The economy appears to change the way it uses energy more rapidly in response to the monetary price of oil that it does in response to rising ECoE. Some of the changes in response to a lower price of oil appear to exacerbate the effects of rising ECoE. How can economic actors look beyond the oil price?
It is interesting but not wholly surprising to me that Dr. Tim Morgan has not answered this “Confounding” question showing the inconvenient truth in Dr. Morgans Seeds analysis. Seeds is something of a black box , we are not allowed to look under the hood of Dr. Morgans claims that Energy Cost of energy (ECOE) is acting as a hard limit to the prospect of prosperity in the world economy.
This question from Will, shows how far short Dr Morgans analysis comes up in answering the Balance between the effects of Finance and the Financialised Economy over the real Energy availability questions. The shortcomings in Dr. Morgan’s analysis encompass Ignorance of Technological innovation and invention and in short, the massive trend we see of actors in the modern economy’s ability to do more with less as per pro current technology and energy mixes.
Energy, Currency, FIAT, Marginal Pricing, Futures. ELECTRICITY, Coal. Transport Fuels, Petroleum, Diesel, Kerosene Bunker, PetroChemicals, Natural Gas, Hydro, Nuclear . WInd Wave Solar Other?
I have been getting my head further around The Energy Market and how it affects the money supply
I think the priority variables are
1. Electricity Base Load production, Coal and Natural Gas, and LPG products?
2. Crude Oil Production and Refinery capacities, Volumes of production are more important than the price per barrel
=3. Swing Production from Shale or Capped and ready to go existing discoveries, Very important to who has upper hand on Marginal pricing on swing production, Texas Rail Road, OPEC, US Shale production?
=3. Gas Production and Coal production are probably equal with 3 or interchangeable with 3.
5. Venezuelan and Iranian supply disruption through Sanctions is a political bottleneck to an otherwise trivial supply problem in the Oil Market.
6. Geo-Political and Green New Deal political economy choices vis Gas Pipe Lines ( Nord Stream / Syria / Ukraine ) are again self-inflicted own goals? Why?
Best wishes Erl.
Roger Lewis
New Book: The Movement of the Atmosphere
If you want Australia and the West to go on the offensive against China, first, take into account the point of view of Martin Jacques, a man uniquely attuned to the desirability of adopting a well educated, appreciative, cross cultural point of view. Ray Dalio, a long term student of China and the rise and fall of empires, also makes a lot of sense.
This distraction with ‘climate’ and sabre rattling in connection with China is ruinous and likely terminal.
The Southern Hemisphere, as a whole, has not experienced any increase in temperature in the month of January since the decade 1978-1987. Let that statement sink in.
Over the largest portion of the globe, for the largest portion of time, temperature is sub optimal for photosynthesis. All life depends on plants. Let that statement sink in.
Nice weather, the dams are full, just a bit cold. Some remarks about climate science.
Nice weather, the dams are full, just a bit cold. Some remarks about climate science.
Posted on August 2, 2021 by erl happ
The basic problem in climate science, and its indeed a very basic problem, is an inability to differentiate between cause and effect. Its the old problem of the chicken and the egg.
All ye promoters of erratic sources of energy, come now, repent, and be forgiven.
All ye promoters of erratic sources of energy, come now, repent, and be forgiven.
Posted on July 9, 2021 by erl happ
All the diagrams below present data from a same archive, that can be found here.
In short, ‘decarbonization’ is unnecessary, economically harmful and socially destructive. It will do nothing for ‘the climate’ because the modes of variation in climate have nothing to do with carbon dioxide.
At issue is the question of what determines the surface temperature on planet Earth.
Tic Toc, the ENSO clock, the origins of natural variability in climate.
Tic Toc, the ENSO clock, the origins of natural variability in climate.
Posted on June 21, 2021 by erl happ
The linkage between cloud cover, surface pressure and temperature
Posted on June 14, 2021 by erl happ
For the albedo data in this presentation I am indebted to Zoe Phin at. https://phzoe.com/2021/06/01/on-albedo. As per usual the temperature data comes from: https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl
The linkage between cloud cover, surface pressure and temperature
Atmospheric albedo is due to particles that reflect visible wave lengths in the spectrum of light emitted by the Sun. This reduces the light that reaches the surface of the planet.
Hi Erl.
The Rocket Scientists Journal by Dr Geoffrey Glassman
https://web.archive.org/web/20211214052444/http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/
The Absurdity of Climate Hysteria
Posted on February 24, 2021 by erl happ
The author is a grape farmer and wine maker, and a close observer of climate.
The Absurdity of Climate Hysteria
It is widely asserted that grape vintages are nowadays earlier, due to hotter summers. I reject that assertion. Winters are warmer than in the past. Not summers. The earlier start to a longer growing season and enhanced availability of CO2 enhances photosynthetic capacity. It improves efficiency in the use of scarce water by the grape vine. This very likely accounts for the earlier time of ripening. In addition, when the ripening month has been in February, the warmest month, and it occurs in January, the maturation period is cooler than hitherto, an advantage.
3 thoughts on “I will not “debate” morons.”AGW has finally reached the point that the price of food can be used as a proxy for the economic cost of environmental degradation. “”