Over the Brink to Baileys Bust!
Bank of England On The Brink, Rate decision 23rd March could send market over the Brink.
Over the Brink to Baileys Bust!
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BoE Interest Rate Decision | last rate rise to | 4% | forecast | 4.25% |
Why Is the Federal Reserve Provoking a Financial Crisis?
All of the key indicators point to a continuing level of low activity which will not be compensated for by the current Government policy which is basically pursuing the Austerity seen post-2010 under Osbourne by the coalition Government. ( Truss and Kwarteng were right in the Autumn, probably for the wrong reasons and with the wrong prescription but they were” less wrong ” than Rishi and Hunt are now.)
https://www.pragcap.com/has-
This analysis applies to the US but is applicable in part to the UK, not least that Bank of England rates follow fed rates and so do ECB rates.If anything in the Uk with its much smaller market than the US has an exaggerated response along the lines described in the article.We have yet to see the extent of the problems seen in the US, particularly in its new build sector in the UK so far, but I do think it will come.
“As long as the Fed sticks with a policy of higher-for-longer, housing will be very weak. And if housing is weak, GDP will be weak as well.
Nonetheless, it’s likely the Fed will stick with higher-for longer out of fears of stirring up inflation.”
The Everything Bubble and the Everything Bust. Prospects for UK Housing and UK Housing Markets.
The UK is not the USA but both are no longer in Kansas.
JANUARY 2, 2023
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/mortgage-lenders-and-administrators/2022/2022-q4
WATCH THIS SPACE: And Here it is!!! (RED ALERT)
https://www.fca.org.uk/data/mortgage-lending-statistics
Statistics on mortgage lending: Q4 2022 edition
Latest findings
- The outstanding value of all residential mortgage loans was £1,675.8 billion at the end of 2022 Q4, 3.9% higher than a year earlier.
- The value of gross mortgage advances in 2022 Q4 was £81.6 billion, which was £4.3 billion lower than the previous quarter, but 16.3% higher than in 2021 Q4.
- The value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) in 2022 Q4 was 33.5% less than the previous quarter and 24.5% less than a year earlier, at £58.4 billion. If the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and period immediately thereafter is excluded, this was the lowest observed since 2015 Q1.
The Latest Mortgage figures bear out the continuing depressed market activity and of course, we now need to factor in the problems with SVB and Credit Suisse.
The Budget was not helpful and we will see what the BOE does next week regarding further rate rises.
new commitments of 58.4 billion q4 2022
2023 YTD from BSA 56.897 billions
https://www.bsa.org.uk/statistics/mortgages-housing#:~:text=01%20Mar%202023-,Mortgage%20approvals,-Loans%20approved%20but
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals
The past quarter has been like watching a car crash in slow motion, SVB went through the windscreen last Friday, of course, that was over there, But maybe that’s a sort of Techy Northern Rock event.
https://garethrees.org/2008/10/18/northern-rock/
At the snake eating its own Tail Phase. #PEAKEVERYTHING #CarbonCurrencyEndgame #ConquestofDough #FinancialEyes #Aadhaar
"The global sovereign debt crisis is upon us in earnest".
I don't think the Memo's out on that one yet, Jumping the gun there old Chap.https://t.co/NYMZpHMQQe— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 17, 2023
What next for the money power Part Two, the Denoument. Dangerous Curves Ahead
Before diving into this graphy curvy post, remember Knowledge is power. Sapere Aude.
Money Circulation in the Eurozone- “Banks’ Deposits” under the lens!
Reblogged this on Site Title and commented:
Are we here again?
Money Circulation in the Eurozone- “Banks’ Deposits” under the lens!
from Erwan Mahé
Regular Thaler’s Corner readers are well aware of the importance I assign to money circulation, as per the famous MV of MV=PQ equation, which has enabled to avoid a good number of pitfalls in recent years.
But it is crucial to view this equation in the context of today’s real world, and not as some of our Stone Age monetarists would have us believe, with a more or less stable V, and a confusion between money supply and monetary base!
As such, my approach is at the polar opposite of that adopted in the ECB statutes. I admit to taking cruel pleasure in citing the relevant excerpts (emphasis mine, link here)
Essentially this is a post showing the Bricks Without Straw, “Straw-manness” of the pseudo sovereign debt crisis that has been in preparation since the 2008 GFC.
And so to the Dangerous Curves
2 thoughts on “UK Housing Debt. Market Update q4 2022. “higher-for-longer = Housing Weak.” All eyes on Thursday March 23 2023. Over the Brink to Baileys Bust!”