PEAK OIL : MYTH OR REALITY, IAN R CRANES LEGENDARY TALK. ( MUST WATCH) #SENSATIONAL #TRUTHBOMB #OIL
Dear Blair Fix,
I agree with much of yours that you have written and share a common interest in the work of Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler. It is in their papers Still about Oil and there will be blood that you will find some of the reasons I disagree with the analysis you present in this Essay.
Hubert’s Work much Like Ehrlich’s is largely discredited.
I have been studying Peak oil and the Surplus energy Circular economy for over 10 years now and Have found the Book The Control of Oil, invaluable as a source
The control of oil: Blair, John M. (John Malcolm), 1914-: Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming: Internet Archive
https://archive.org/details/controlofoil00blai_0
The control of oil : Blair, John M. (John Malcolm), 1914- : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive https://t.co/56pw7BMvBm via @internetarchive
— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 25, 2023
“According to Economics 101, excess demand should cause ‘real’ prices to increase, while
excess supply should cause them to fall. In line with this logic, we divided the period between
1960 and 2013 into four sub-periods, depending on whether the ‘real’ price of oil was heading
up or down. In two of the periods – 1970-1980 and 1998-2003, which we shade for easy
identification – prices trended upward, while in the other two – 1961-1970 and 1980-1998 – they
moved downward. Now, for the theory to be valid, periods of falling prices should be associated
with excess supply (i.e., with inventory build-ups indicated by negative readings for the series);
similarly, periods of rising prices should be associated with excess demand (inventory depletion,
or positive readings”).
Still about oil? pp.53
Shimshon Bichler and Jonathan Nitzan
Tim, You say and have said before many times that.
“All of these hopes miss the fundamental point, which is that ECoEs are very much higher now (above 9%) than they were in the 1970s (at or below 2%).”
Russian and Saudi Lifting costs account for a very large part of core world supply and also proved reserves for future supply, as the proved reserves are using enhanced recovery methods but not the more expensive heat-based recovery of non-conventional heavy oils. I think the simple claim that a substantial proportion of world oil production and continuing supply from those reserves are still at High ECOEs, can you prove otherwise?
Accessible data available in admittedly partial data sets, contradict the very stark claim you make that up to the 1990’s it cost 2 barrels of oil to extract 100 barrels giving a net 98 surplus energy barrels. and that now the energy cost is 9 barrels of every 100 giving 91 surplus barrels.
Adjusted lifting costs on a per-dollar basis have if anything fallen, it is also possible that for Giant fields that lifting costs have actually fallen in Energy terms.
Are your 2% and 9% figures theoretically or empirically derived and if empirically could you please provide the data source from which you derive such a bold claim?
It is also unsatisfactory not to provide adjusted figures for the different souces be they, conventional Land, off shore, deep sea and shallow and deeper conventional sources.
At this point I think it is reasonable to put the End of cheap oil in energy terms theorists to proof.
This paper tackles the question in energy terms and not assumptions drawn from monetary/price assumptions.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687841/
For a compendium of up to date facts on Peak Oil Literacy this from the Finnish Geological Survey is hard to beat. You may find it helpful , and is more sympathetic to your analysis in this Essay than my disagreement with it.
Peak Bullshit. Shits fucked up and bullshit. “Don’t Look Up” (Irony)
Petrodollars and Profit: Rethinking Political Economy through the Middle East
By : Max Ajl
Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler. The Scientist and the Church. World Economic Association, 2015.
Howard Page, a director at what was then Exxon, was once asked, “What would have happened if Iraq production had also surged during the 1960’s,” like that of Saudi Arabia and Iran. He responded, “I admit we would have been in one tough problem.” The company was pumping fast from the latter countries, as well as Libya. “Can you swallow this amount of oil?” the questioner continued. “With Iraq down…But if Iraq had come on,” he said, “it would have been that much harder.”……
The authors are broadly convincing. They distinguish the oil era as one separated between “free flow” and “limited low.” During the period of free-flow, the oil majors literally owned the subsoil of Middle East countries. They profited with prices “being relatively low and stable.” The situation shifted sharply in the 1970s. Nations nationalized their own raw resources. The companies often became “service providers.” As a result, they lost direct control over prices. The consequence was a new limited-flow system, with prices politicized. OPEC quotas, with plenty of pushing and pulling at the hands of Western governments, made sure supplies were set only to what the “market” could bear. The distinction between direct control through property rights and indirect management through diplomacy is incredibly important.
But it is important to keep in mind that their notion of “free flow” refers to who, exactly, controlled the rate at which oil flowed, as well as the positive correlation between volume and profits. This periodization does not mean that production was not sabotaged. Nor do they mean that countries and corporations did not deliberately constrain supply during the earlier period. It simply means that the mechanisms of that constraint differed from those used after 1973. During that earlier era, for example, the majors allowed Iranian production to increase, but at a very precise rate related to what analysts thought would coincide with global demand. Meanwhile, Iraqi production endured constant sabotage. As leading petroleum economist John Blair noted in his classic study of the oil business, “From almost the beginning of its operations,” the Iraqi Petroleum Co. “not only suppressed production in Iraq…but went to considerable lengths to conceal that fact from the Iraqi government.”
NOVEMBER 23, 2021
Truth in intensive care. Eye See You. #ICU Busted Flushes and threadbare narratives. WMDs to IOU’s #TheGreatBailin #OilBlackGold #InducedComa of a New Oil Shock #Bilderberg #OlofPalme
Unravelling Catastrophe. Seeds of Hope or Seeds of destruction.
Baileys Bust, No Quarter Given, On the 1/4 Point Hike March 23rd 2023. UK Resi Market Survey #RICS, Where did all that wealth come from? Where is it headed And what should we do about it? – Real Estate Land Development (RLD) Limited https://t.co/45LzjgIqLO
— Real-Estate Land Development Limited (@RealEstateLand3) March 25, 2023
2 thoughts on “The Peak Oil Myth, A Zombie Myth back from the dead. Fixing Blair Fix. #PeakOil #ItsBehindyou not #DontLookUp”